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Opinion article by  Prof Anthony Turton, Centre for Environmental Management, University of the Free State.

World Water Day is a global celebration of the role of water as a shared resource. The theme this year is ‘Water for Peace’, which is obviously a noble cause. We know that water is also an economic enabler, so is it true to say that asymmetrical access to water can be a driver of conflict – the opposite of peace? 

Credible work done by Prof Aaron Wolf at Oregon State University has led to several deeply insightful observations, based on the analysis of literally hundreds of thousands of documents now housed in the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database (TFDD). Some of these observations are relevant to this discussion.

Water is seldom a driver of conflict between sovereign states, simply because governments generally have a range of remedies that logically avoid the unnecessary disruption of war. Consequently, there is limited empirical evidence of water as a primary cause of war. Where evidence does exist, it tends to be from the ancient world, predating dispute resolution mechanisms that are now embedded in international treaties between governments sharing a river or a lake.

Collapse of the water sector

This is not true for sub-sovereign matters. Stated differently, the level of violence likely to be unleashed over water increases dramatically the closer one gets to the individual who is disgruntled. An angry citizen, totally dependent on a flow of water for their livelihood, is more likely to resort to violence than a government is, simply because that government has many more options available to them than the individual does.

An interesting observation from the TFDD is that perceptions of water risk tend to amplify underlying tensions inherent in any society. Therefore, where economic inequality exists, water deprivation simply adds to the already high burden carried by that segment of society. We see this playing out in South Africa in an increasingly dramatic manner as our water sector collapses piece by piece.

There are many examples of these observations, so let us delve into a few in greater detail. We are currently seeing rapid change taking place in aquatic ecosystems. Look no further than the Vaal River where water lettuce, relatively unheard of just a year ago, has rapidly taken over vast swathes of the river. We can compare this to the Hartbeespoort Dam, a well-documented disaster area, which has taken decades to reach the point of environmental collapse we now see happening. What took decades to happen in Hartbeespoort, has taken two to three years in the Vaal.

The rate of change

The rate of change is what stands out as unique, so let us look deeper into this matter.  A high-end commercial real estate development at Umhlanga Ridge is currently facing crippling water challenges that could potentially destroy the investment case in that area. Central to this was the rapid change in the ecological status of the Ohlanga River, from which water was abstracted for sugar irrigation in the past. The pipeline that used to be for irrigation, now ends in a lake that is a central feature of the public open space in the Manhattan Business District of Africa. The Looters War in 2021 saw a fire engulf a warehouse located in Cornubia. That warehouse contained large quantities of highly toxic chemicals that were released into the atmosphere, and then washed into the river as firefighters battled the raging blaze. In one night, the ecological status of the Umhlanga Rocks area was changed forever, because some of those chemicals are persistent, known as ‘forever chemicals’. This has also placed the entire real estate development at Umhlanga Ridge in jeopardy. A development raising billions of rands in investment capital, and creating livelihoods for hundreds of thousands of people, is placed at risk in perpetuity because of a regulatory approval for the storage of hazardous chemicals in an urban area.

In the Western Cape there are many small rivers that arise from orographic rainfall and flow in an easterly direction into the ocean. This is rainfall that occurs when warm moisture-laden air blows off the ocean and is forced to rise when it strikes a mountain range. As it rises it cools, and rainfall happens. This wonder of nature has created a little piece of paradise known as the Garden Route, sandwiched between the Karoo desert and the ocean. These small rivers are ecologically important, because they sustain the fynbos biome, a national treasure of enormous tourism value to the country.  Hundreds of thousands of jobs are created by this orographic rainfall in an area that would otherwise be a relatively barren desert like the Karoo. These short rivers have peat beds, made up of sediment captured in the roots of wetland plants over the past 50 000 years. One of these is the Onrus River, flowing through the Hemel-en-Aarde Valley, discharging into a lagoon at Hermanus. In the 1970s, the De Bos Dam was built to sustain the economic development of the area. It altered the natural flood pulse of the river, so it slowly dried out the deep peat beds. In 2019, this desiccated peat spontaneously combusted. Peat is carbon rich and methane producing, so it is susceptible to fire. This is a well-known risk. The fire raged underground for nine months, consuming the outer edges of the peat, many metres deep. The National Water Act mandates environmental flows from dams, but this was opposed by the municipality, because it would result in water insecurity that could slow down the economic boom in Hermanus.  In 2023, two major rainfall events occurred – in May and September. The first storm saw the erosion of the peat some 500 metres long. The second wiped out 80% of the total area. So violent was this event that the lagoon was filled with sediment and the foundations of a road were destroyed. The ecological foundation on which the prosperity of Hermanus has been build has washed out to sea, and slowly the realisation is becoming apparent as to the economic value of ecosystem services provided by wetlands.

No Root Cause Analysis

In all these cases, the rate of change has been so fast that government departments at national, provincial, and municipal level have simply been overwhelmed. In no case has a root cause analysis ever been conducted, so decision-making is taking place against a background of high risk and extreme uncertainty, with a growing probability of anger in some form.  In all cases, the first knee-jerk response has been to resort to chemical sprays, typically glyphosate, without fully anticipating the depth of public anger at the poisoning of their environment by the state.  This merely lubricates the cleavage lines, already in existence because of historic disparities, but exacerbated by frustration at the apparent unwillingness of the state to respond.

The state is unable to respond, and this simple truth lies at the very heart of any discussion about water and conflict, but it is lost in the noise created by angry people fighting over their own perception of deprivation.

Therefore, to understand water for peace, an enlightened public first needs to understand the notion of relative deprivation, for that is a powerful perception that acts as a circuit breaker in logical decision-making processes. It is also unique to each person but is often aggregated into a group experience, as one segment of society feels more deprived than another. If we are ever going to unlock the true potential of water as an economic enabler, we will have to create a robust fact-based framework on which regulatory decisions are made. The internationally accepted model is a root cause analysis. Until our government starts doing this, our slow but relentless slide into chaos will continue.