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04 March 2020 | Story Jean-Pierre Geldenhuys | Photo Supplied
geldenhuysJP
Jean-Pierre Geldenhuys.

As has been the case for the past five years, the latest (2020) budget paints another sobering picture of South Africa’s public finances and short-term economic outlook. Of particular concern is that this budget does not project that the government debt ratio will stabilise in the medium term (by 2022/23), which means that the current fiscal policy trajectory is unsustainable (which National Treasury acknowledges in the Budget Review). This makes a rating downgrade by Moody’s in March all but inevitable. 

In the budget that was tabled on Wednesday, the budget deficit is projected to be 6,3% in 2019/2020, while increasing to 6,8% the following year, before gradually declining to a still unsustainable 5,7% of the GDP by 2022/23. These large budget deficits contributed to large projected increases in the government debt-to-GDP ratio: this ratio is projected to increase from about 62% in 2019/20 to about 72% by 2022/23. To understand the extent of the deterioration of South Africa’s public finances over the past 12 months, it should be noted that this ratio was projected in the 2019 budget to increase to about 60% by 2022/23.

Burger and Calitz (2020) show that the government debt-to-GDP ratio can be stabilised (and fiscal sustainability can be restored) if: the gap between real interest rates and real GDP growth is reduced, and/or if the primary balance (government revenues minus non-interest government spending) is adequate to avoid an increase in the debt ratio. They then show that the debt ratio has increased over the past decade because the (implied) real interest rate on government debt has increased and the real growth rate has decreased and government ran large primary deficits, at a time when large primary surpluses were required to avoid increases in the debt ratio. 

Between 1998 and 2007, the debt ratio was reduced from just under 50% to just under 30%. This period (especially from 2002 onwards) was characterised by (relatively) high economic growth. Fast economic growth is crucial to stabilising the debt ratio and restoring fiscal sustainability. National Treasury (NT) has proposed structural reforms (aimed at reducing regulatory burdens and backlogs and increasing competitiveness in the economy) to stimulate private sector investment and growth. Given the constraints that continued load shedding will put on South African growth in the near future, as well as projected slower growth in the economies of our main trading partners, and the uncertainties associated with disruptions wrought by the coronavirus outbreak, it remains to be seen if private sector investment will increase and stimulate growth (available evidence in any event suggests that private sector investment tends to follow, not lead, economic growth). 

With growth likely to remain slow, lower real interest rates and lower budget deficits are required to reduce the debt ratio and restore fiscal sustainability. These interest rates will more than likely increase if Moody’s decides to (finally) downgrade its rating of South African government debt.

With low economic growth and high real interest rates, stabilisation of the public debt ratio means that the budget deficit must be reduced. To reduce the budget deficit, government can: (i) increase taxes, (ii) decrease spending and (iii) increase taxes and reduce spending. Given that fiscal policy is unsustainable in South Africa, it is surprising that NT decided against increasing taxes (other than customary annual increases in the fuel levy and excise taxes) in this budget – many analysts were expecting some combination of higher personal income tax, VAT, and company taxes. As reasons for not raising taxes, it cites low expected economic growth, and that most of the efforts to reduce the budget deficit in the past five years have been centred on using tax increases. Even more puzzling, the budget granted real tax relief to taxpayers, as income tax scales were adjusted by more than expected inflation. 

All efforts to rein in the budget deficit therefore rely on government spending reductions. To this end, NT is proposing to reduce government spending by about R260 billion over the next three years. This reduction in spending is comprised of a R160 billion reduction in the wage bill, and a further R100 billion reduction in programme baseline reductions. At the same time, as a proposal for wage cuts, government is allocating even more money to prop up the balance sheets of many SoCs, with R60 billion allocated to Eskom and SAA (while the Minister referred to the Sword of Damocles when referring to SAA in his speech, a more apt analogy for government’s response to the financial crises facing many of its SoCs might rather be the paradox of Buridan’s ass). While government has announced plans for the restructuring of Eskom and has placed SAA in business rescue, so far there is no feasible consensus plan to address Eskom’s mounting debts and dire financial situation, which poses a systemic risk to the South African economy. 

Regarding the proposed reductions to the wage bill, NT believes that its target can be achieved through downward adjustments to cost-of-living adjustments, pay progression and other benefits. Furthermore, the Budget Review also states that pay scales at public entities and state-owned companies (SOCs) will be aligned with those in the public service to curtail wage bill growth and ‘excessive’ salaries at these entities. We are also told that government will discuss the options for achieving its desired wage bill reduction with unions. Given the precariousness of the public finances, and the understandable objections of workers and unions, one must ask why these discussions were not already in full swing by the time that the budget was tabled? 

Regarding the proposed cuts to government programmes, NT notes that it tried to limit these to underperforming or underspending programmes, and that the largest cuts will be in the human settlement and transport sectors. But, as NT acknowledges, any cuts to government programmes will negatively affect the economy and social services; the budget speech also states that the number of government employees has declined since 2011/12, which also affects the provision of public and social services adversely (the Minister explicitly mentioned increased classroom sizes, full hospitals, and too few police officers during his speech). 

Apart from the proposed spending cuts, the proposed allocation of spending is unsurprising and reflects long-standing government priorities: spending on basic education, post-school education and training, health and social protection takes up 13,6%, 6,7%, 11,8% and 11,3%, respectively. Increases in social grants range between 4 and 4,7%, which means small real increases in most social grants (only if inflation remains subdued). Worryingly, debt service costs are expected to take up more than 11% of total government spending (and is projected to exceed health spending by 2022/23). These costs are projected to grow by more than 12% by 2022/23 (almost double the growth in the fastest growing non-interest expenditure category). These figures vividly illustrate how a high and increasing debt-to-GDP ratio limits the scope for increased spending on important public and social services. 

Unless fiscal sustainability and the  balance sheets of SoCs are restored, the scope for the government to increase spending to combat poverty, rising inequality, and unemployment will be severely limited – as would the scope for countercyclical fiscal policy, should the local economy again slide into recession. The stakes are high, and the cost of indecisiveness is increasing.

This article was written by Jean-Pierre Geldenhuys, lecturer in the Department of Economics and Finance in the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences 

News Archive

Inauguration of Prof Francis Petersen as 14th Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS
2017-05-23

Description: Prof Petersen Inauguration Charl Devenish photo Tags: Prof Petersen Inauguration Charl Devenish photo

Dr Khotso Mokhele, Chancellor of the UFS, robes Prof Francis Petersen as Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS.
Photo: Charl Devenish

“At the UFS, we want to produce graduates for the world, and we need to ensure that we use our knowledge to uplift society”
— Prof Francis Petersen, 14th Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the University of the Free State (UFS)

On Friday 19 May 2017, the University of the Free State (UFS) celebrated the inauguration of its 14th Vice-Chancellor and Rector, Prof Francis Petersen. The formal inauguration was held in the Odeion Theatre on the Bloemfontein Campus. The ceremony was preceded by a week-long welcoming programme on the three UFS campuses.

The guest list included representatives from local and provincial government, vice-chancellors and rectors from across South Africa, and senior members of the university’s executive management.

During the inaugural address, Prof Petersen paid tribute to his predecessors for the role they played in making the university what it is today. This included former rectors and vice-chancellors who attended the ceremony, such as Prof Francois Retief and Prof Frederick Fourie, and Prof Stef Coetzee and Prof Jonathan Jansen who were unable to attend.

Prof Petersen characterised 2015 and 2016 as watershed years for the South African higher-education system. “The Rhodes Must Fall, and subsequent Fees Must Fall student and staff protests challenged us, and re-energised a critical engagement around the purpose of the university in an equal society, both as a site of complicity and as a potential agent for social change,” said Prof Petersen.

He committed himself to developing the UFS into an institution that will have an even greater impact than before.

“This institution I am striving to establish will be one that responds positively to inclusivity, diversity, and transformation, and which can incorporate these values into our curriculum, scholarship, and research in a productive way,” said Prof Petersen.

Prof Petersen emphasised the importance of the three-campus model. “The University of the Free State is ONE university with three campuses: the Bloemfontein Campus, our South Campus, and the Qwaqwa Campus. I am committed to align the activities of the three campuses, and to integrate our activities to a greater extent.

“We must work together to infuse each campus with the values we have identified as essential if we are to make our mark as a united University of the Free State: academic excellence, diversity and inclusivity, and innovation.”

The Chancellor, Dr Khotso Mokhele, had the honour of handing over the gown to Prof Petersen. Prof Lis Lange, Vice-Rector: Academic, explained the relationship between the university and the Basotho people, and how this relationship is honoured through the official procession gowns of the UFS. The Basotho blanket is worn by kings, and the university therefore hopes that the symbolism of the gown would be a source of inspiration to Prof Petersen.

The event was concluded by congratulatory messages from former colleagues and the President of the Student Representative Council on the Bloemfontein Campus, SK Luwaca. The event was elegant and graceful – the inaugural address was thought-provoking and inspiring.


 

Official Inauguration Ceremony:

19 May 2017
Bloemfontein Campus

 Description: Official Inauguration photo small Tags: Official Inauguration photo small


"I challenge you to dream big and do big." - Prof Petersen

 

Photo Caption: Dr Khotso Mokhele, Chancellor of the UFS, robes Prof Francis Petersen as Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS.
Photo: Johan Roux

Short biography of Prof Francis Petersen
Inaugural address: 19 May 2017
Transcription of the ceremony
Photo Gallery

Video


 

Welcoming Ceremonies:

The week of 11-19 May 2017 was one of the highlights in this year’s calendar for staff and students of the University of the Free State (UFS), with various ceremonies taking place to welcome Prof Francis Petersen – who assumed his duties on 1 April 2017 – as the 14th Vice-Chancellor and Rector. The festivities culminated in the official inauguration ceremony at the Bloemfontein Campus on 19 May 2017.
 
The Qwaqwa Campus welcoming ceremony took place on Thursday 11 May 2017, attracting a wide spectrum of community leaders from the area. Prof Petersen was welcomed by representatives from the two trade unions, National Education Health and Allied Workers Union (Nehawu) and UVPERSU, as well as representatives from the Student Representative Council (SRC), the Thabo Mofutsanyana Education District, and the House of Traditional Leaders. Paramount Queen Mopeli of the Bakoena Royal House bestowed a special honour upon Prof Petersen by clothing him in a traditional Basotho blanket and hat. She said, "From our heart of hearts, welcome, Prof Francis ..., and all Godspeed during your tenure."
 
The South Campus in Bloemfontein hosted a welcoming ceremony for the new Vice-Chancellor and Rector on 18 May 2017. The ceremony included a number of vocal performances and messages from various stakeholder groups. The same afternoon, the Institute for Reconciliation and Social Justice (IRSJ) also facilitated a panel discussion, titled Diversity, inclusivity, and social justice and the renewed call for decolonisation, in the Albert Wessels Auditorium (AWO) on the Bloemfontein Campus.

The welcoming ceremonies culminated in an event in the Callie Human Centre on Friday 19 May 2017 at the Bloemfontein Campus, with a number of performances by musicians associated with the UFS, marimbas, drum majorettes from Jim Fouche Secondary School, the Grey College Gumboots, and school choirs from Eunice Secondary School, Brebner Primary School, and Willem Postma Primary School. Representatives from key stakeholders such as Nehawu, UVPERSU, the Campus Ministries Forum, SRC, Alumni, Convocation, and the UFS Council had the opportunity to convey their messages of welcome to Prof Petersen.
 
The formal inauguration ceremony took place in the Odeion Theatre on the Bloemfontein Campus the same day.


 

Qwaqwa Campus ceremony:

11 May 2017
Qwaqwa Campus

 Description: Prof Petersen with the queen 2 Tags: Prof Petersen with the queen 2

 

"Qwaqwa Campus is the perfect laboratory for sustainable sciences.” – Prof Petersen

 

Photo caption: Paramount Queen Mopeli of the Bakoena Royal House with Prof Petersen and his wife, Cheslyn.
Photo:
Mamosa Makaya

Photo Gallery
Video

Read the full story
Transcription of the ceremony


 

South Campus ceremony:

18 May 2017
South Campus

 Description: South Campus welcoming Tags: South Campus welcoming

 

"South Campus: you aspire excellence, adding to diversity and you are innovative in what you do." - Prof Petersen

Photo caption: Flag bearers and drummers walking to the Madiba Arena.
Photo: Hannes Pieterse

Photo Gallery

Read the full story
Transcription of the ceremony

 


 

Bloemfontein Campus panel discussion:

Panel discussion: Diversity, inclusivity and social justice and the renewed call for decolonisation
18 May 2017
Bloemfontein Campus

 Description: Panel discussion 18 May 2017 Tags: Panel discussion 18 May 2017


"The UFS should be a place of belonging for everyone." - Prof Petersen

 

Photo caption: from left: SK Luwaca (SRC President, Bloemfontein Campus), Prof Elelwani Ramugondo (UCT), Prof Francis Petersen (UFS), Prof Melissa Steyn (WITS), Prof Andre Keet (UFS)
Photo: Lelanie de Wet

Photo Gallery

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Transcription of panel discussion




 

Bloemfontein Campus ceremony:

19 May 2017
Bloemfontein Campus

 Description: Bloem welcoming ceremony on 19 May 2017 Tags: Bloem welcoming ceremony on 19 May 2017


"I can just say, Wow! I've experienced a lot during the welcoming functions on all three campuses." - Prof Petersen

 

Photo caption: Prof Francis Petersen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS
Photo: Rulanzen Martin

Photo Gallery

Read the full story
Transcription of the ceremony



 

 

Description: Inauguration and welcoming of Prof Petersen combined gallery Tags: Inauguration and welcoming of Prof Petersen combined gallery

Photo gallery of Inauguration and Welcoming Ceremonies

 

 

 

 

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