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SA now experiencing half-year summers

12 October 2020 | Story Leonie Bolleurs | Photo Supplied

Although several international studies have used temperature metrics to statistically classify their seasonal divisions, a study in which Adriaan van der Walt was involved, would be the first known publication in a South African context using temperature as classification metric.

Gone are the days when we as South Africans would experience a three-month spring season, easing into summer, and then cooling off for three months before we hit winter.

Adriaan van der Walt, Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of the Free State (UFS), focuses his research on biometeorology (a specialist discipline exploring the role and climate change in physical and human environments) as well as climatology and geographic information systems.

He recently published an article: ‘Statistical classification of South African seasonal divisions on the basis of daily temperature data’ in the South African Journal of Science.

In this study, which Van der Walt undertook with Jennifer Fitchett, a colleague from the University of the Witwatersrand, data on daily maximum and minimum temperatures was collected from 35 meteorological stations of the South African Weather Service, covering the period between 1980 and 2015.

They went to great lengths to ensure that they had a complete set of data before presenting it to demonstrate seasonal brackets.

First for South Africa

Their statistical seasonal brackets indicate that South Africans now experience longer summers (from October to March), autumn in April and May, winter from June to August, and spring in September.

Although considerable work has been done using rainfall to determine seasonality in Southern Africa, Van der Walt believes that these methods did not work well as there are too many inconsistencies in this approach, as identified by Roffe et al. (2019, South African Geographical Journal). To make matters more complicated – as a semi-arid region, and with desert conditions along the west coast – some regions do not have enough rainfall to use as a classifier.

Temperature, on the other hand, worked well in this study. “Temperature, by contrast, is a continuous variable, and in Southern Africa has sufficient seasonal variation to allow for successful classification,” says Van der Walt.

He continues: “Although several international studies used temperature metrics to statistically classify their seasonal divisions, this study would be the first known publication in a South African context using temperature as classification metric.”

Van der Walt says what we understand as seasons largely relates to phenology – the appearance of blossoms in spring, the colouration and fall of leaves in autumn, and the migration of birds as a few examples. “These phenological shifts are more sensitive to temperature than other climatic variables.”

Seasonal brackets

According to Van der Walt, they believe that a clearly defined and communicated method should be used in defining seasons, rather than just assigning months to seasons.

“One of the most important arguments of our work is that one needs to critically consider breaks in seasons, rather than arbitrarily placing months into seasons, and so we welcome any alternate approaches,” he says.

A number of sectors apply the temperature-based division to their benefit. “For example, in the tourism sector it is becoming increasingly important to align advertising with the season most climatically suitable for tourism,” says Van der Walt.

Temperature-based division is also used to develop adaptive strategies to monitor seasonal changes in temperature under climate change. However, Van der Walt points out that each sector will have its own way of defining seasons. “Seasonal boundaries should nevertheless be clearly communicated with the logic behind them,” he says.

News Archive

An exceptional year at Kovsies — one of the most successful years in academic achievement

2014-12-04

The University of the Free State (UFS) had an exceptional year, with many staff members and students performing both nationally and internationally. Considerable progress has also been made in improving the academic standards of the university.

“So far, this has been one of the most successful years in academic achievement. The UFS now has the highest academic pass rate in years, partly as a result of the admission standards which were raised four years ago.

“We now also have the highest rate of research publications, one of the highest publication figures for scholarly books in history, three Mandela Rhodes scholars and several international communication awards”, says Prof Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS.

“The university now attracts top professors from all over the country and other parts of the world and for the first time in many years, two researchers received A-ratings from the National Research Foundation (NRF). This is the first time in the history of the UFS that two A-ratings were awarded simultaneously. The most researchers ever were rated by the NRF this year. After the constant turmoil of a few years ago, Kovsies has now become one of the most stable campuses in South Africa,” Prof Jansen says.

The impartial findings of a recent survey of UFS stakeholders showed that our values are endorsed by 92%; 86% agrees with our vision; 81% agree with our goals; 77% agree with our transformation; 78% believe that we are inclusive; and 78% applauded our overall reputation index. “These figures are very different from a few years ago when the university experienced a crisis,” he says.

According to Prof Jansen, the UFS’s financial situation is one of the most stable of all universities in South Africa, with a strong balance sheet and growing financial reserves – way better than before. This is exactly the reason why the UFS received confirmation from the Independent Regulatory Board of Auditors (IRBA) this year that we complied with international standards of reporting for the financial year which ended on 31 December 2013.

“I am also pleased to report that the crisis in the delivery of health services in the Free State province has been resolved due to collaboration between the UFS Management (including the Dean: Health Sciences and Head of the School of Medicine), the Department of Health and the Premier, Mr Ace Magashule. Although the loss of skilled personnel is still a concern, the Dean and Head of the School of Medicine are recreating the Health Services Platform at Universitas Hospital. However, the academic training of no undergraduate medical student or any student in the Health Sciences was influenced by the crisis in the Universitas and Pelonomi Hospitals”, he says.

The UFS is regarded around the world as a model of transformation and reconciliation in the student body. The recent SRC elections are only the most visible example of how far we have come in terms of leadership diversity. “Not a week goes by in which other universities, nationally and abroad, do not come to Kovsies to consult with us on how they can learn from us and deepen their own transformations, especially among students”, Prof Jansen says.

“The UFS will continue its model of inclusive transformation which provides opportunities for study and for employment for all South Africans, including international students and colleagues. We remain committed to our parallel-medium instruction in which Afrikaans remains a language of instruction; we are in fact the only medical school in the country that offers education and training in Afrikaans and not only English. We provide bursaries and overseas study opportunities to all our students, irrespective of race. And our ‘future professors’ programme is richly diverse as we seek the academic stars of the future. But we remain steadfast in our goal of making the UFS a top world university in its academic ambitions and its human commitments,” Prof Jansen says.

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