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SA now experiencing half-year summers

12 October 2020 | Story Leonie Bolleurs | Photo Supplied

Although several international studies have used temperature metrics to statistically classify their seasonal divisions, a study in which Adriaan van der Walt was involved, would be the first known publication in a South African context using temperature as classification metric.

Gone are the days when we as South Africans would experience a three-month spring season, easing into summer, and then cooling off for three months before we hit winter.

Adriaan van der Walt, Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of the Free State (UFS), focuses his research on biometeorology (a specialist discipline exploring the role and climate change in physical and human environments) as well as climatology and geographic information systems.

He recently published an article: ‘Statistical classification of South African seasonal divisions on the basis of daily temperature data’ in the South African Journal of Science.

In this study, which Van der Walt undertook with Jennifer Fitchett, a colleague from the University of the Witwatersrand, data on daily maximum and minimum temperatures was collected from 35 meteorological stations of the South African Weather Service, covering the period between 1980 and 2015.

They went to great lengths to ensure that they had a complete set of data before presenting it to demonstrate seasonal brackets.

First for South Africa

Their statistical seasonal brackets indicate that South Africans now experience longer summers (from October to March), autumn in April and May, winter from June to August, and spring in September.

Although considerable work has been done using rainfall to determine seasonality in Southern Africa, Van der Walt believes that these methods did not work well as there are too many inconsistencies in this approach, as identified by Roffe et al. (2019, South African Geographical Journal). To make matters more complicated – as a semi-arid region, and with desert conditions along the west coast – some regions do not have enough rainfall to use as a classifier.

Temperature, on the other hand, worked well in this study. “Temperature, by contrast, is a continuous variable, and in Southern Africa has sufficient seasonal variation to allow for successful classification,” says Van der Walt.

He continues: “Although several international studies used temperature metrics to statistically classify their seasonal divisions, this study would be the first known publication in a South African context using temperature as classification metric.”

Van der Walt says what we understand as seasons largely relates to phenology – the appearance of blossoms in spring, the colouration and fall of leaves in autumn, and the migration of birds as a few examples. “These phenological shifts are more sensitive to temperature than other climatic variables.”

Seasonal brackets

According to Van der Walt, they believe that a clearly defined and communicated method should be used in defining seasons, rather than just assigning months to seasons.

“One of the most important arguments of our work is that one needs to critically consider breaks in seasons, rather than arbitrarily placing months into seasons, and so we welcome any alternate approaches,” he says.

A number of sectors apply the temperature-based division to their benefit. “For example, in the tourism sector it is becoming increasingly important to align advertising with the season most climatically suitable for tourism,” says Van der Walt.

Temperature-based division is also used to develop adaptive strategies to monitor seasonal changes in temperature under climate change. However, Van der Walt points out that each sector will have its own way of defining seasons. “Seasonal boundaries should nevertheless be clearly communicated with the logic behind them,” he says.

News Archive

Alumni in the financial sector: money talks!

2016-12-26

Marina Marinkov, Economist at the
International Monetary

Evangelina Nailenge, General
Manager: Investment Institutions at
Namibia Financial Supervisory Authority.

Vuyelwa Vumendlini, Chief Director:
Global and Emerging Markets, National
Treasury.

Prof Meshach Azaikpono, Professor of
Development Finance, University of
Stellenbosch.

Anton Nicolaisen, Provincial Head for
the Free State Province, Standard Bank.

Where are they now?

On good days, most of us battle to set our personal finances straight, let alone be responsible for a large enterprise. So we are extremely proud of the well-trained and talented Kovsie alumni who fill prominent shoes. Operating mostly away from the public eye, they make decisions to improve the economy on various levels. It is heartening to know that the UFS contributes to financial matters and training all across the globe.

Marina Marinkov

Courses: BCom (Economics), BCom Hons (Money and Banking), and MCom (Economics) (2000-2004)
Current position: Economist at the International Monetary Fund
Biggest career obstacle: I once worked for an organisation with poor leadership which negatively affected employee morale and job performance. It still proved to be a great learning experience, though. Bad bosses can teach us powerful lessons.
Best career advice: Stop doubting yourself, work hard and be humble.
Fondest memory of UFS: Time spent on campus with my classmates, whether studying for finals at the library or just catching up between classes. The UFS was also my first employer and I have plenty of wonderful memories with colleagues at the Department of Economics.

Evangelina Nailenge

Courses: BCom Hons (Money and Banking) MCom (Money and Banking) (2005-2006)
Current position: General Manager: Investment Institutions at Namibia Financial Supervisory Authority
Biggest career obstacle: At times, being one of the youngest requires you to work twice as hard to earn your voice and cue at the decision-making table.
Best career advice: “Whatever your hand finds to do, do it with all your might, for in the realm of the dead, where you are going, there is neither working nor planning nor knowledge nor wisdom.” Eccl. 9:10
Fondest memory of UFS: Walking around the campus. Its well-manicured lawns and gardens had a calming effect in the midst of academic pressures. I will forever treasure the moment I first saw my name engraved in the walls of FGG, as the best postgraduate student for both 2005 and 2006.

Vuyelwa Vumendlini

Course: BCom Hons (Economics) (1996-1999)
Current position: Chief Director: Global and Emerging Markets, National Treasury
Biggest career obstacle: Doubting your own capabilities.
Best career advice: The sky is the limit, go for it all out, but most importantly, do something that you are passionate about it. It makes your work much more meaningful.
Fondest memory of UFS: Working as a tutor in my honours year and being able to help other students. I also enjoyed hanging out at Mooimeisiesfontein on Saturday afternoons.

Prof Meshach Azaikpono

Course: PhD in Economics (2004-2008) “The Depth of Financial Integration and its Effects on Financial Development and Economic Performance of the Southern African Customs Union Countries”. He received the Founders’ Medal for the best PhD dissertation in Economics in South Africa.
Current position: Professor of Development Finance, University of Stellenbosch.
Biggest career obstacle: I was fortunate to never have experienced a major career obstacle.
Best career advice: Pursue and focus on your passion.
Fondest memory of UFS: Being a part-time student, I had very limited interaction with the broader university environment. But I really enjoyed the support provided by the library staff and the staff from the Department of Economics. It was always like coming to see friends.

Anton Nicolaisen

Course: BEcon (1986-1989), MBA (1999-2003)
Current position: Provincial Head for the Free State Province, Standard Bank
Biggest career obstacle: Earlier in my career, I fell into a comfort zone and had to acquire the willingness to change.
Best career advice: Continuously challenge yourself to be the best possible person you can be, and run your own race. Learn through difficult times, and be open to change.
Fondest memory of UFS: Although I was not the biggest academic, I enjoyed interacting with lecturers … their stories and unique characteristics. Back then, I interpreted some as funny or awkward, only later did I realise how much I had learned from them. And of course, I’ll always remember the team spirit at athletics meetings and intervarsity.

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