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SA now experiencing half-year summers

12 October 2020 | Story Leonie Bolleurs | Photo Supplied

Although several international studies have used temperature metrics to statistically classify their seasonal divisions, a study in which Adriaan van der Walt was involved, would be the first known publication in a South African context using temperature as classification metric.

Gone are the days when we as South Africans would experience a three-month spring season, easing into summer, and then cooling off for three months before we hit winter.

Adriaan van der Walt, Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of the Free State (UFS), focuses his research on biometeorology (a specialist discipline exploring the role and climate change in physical and human environments) as well as climatology and geographic information systems.

He recently published an article: ‘Statistical classification of South African seasonal divisions on the basis of daily temperature data’ in the South African Journal of Science.

In this study, which Van der Walt undertook with Jennifer Fitchett, a colleague from the University of the Witwatersrand, data on daily maximum and minimum temperatures was collected from 35 meteorological stations of the South African Weather Service, covering the period between 1980 and 2015.

They went to great lengths to ensure that they had a complete set of data before presenting it to demonstrate seasonal brackets.

First for South Africa

Their statistical seasonal brackets indicate that South Africans now experience longer summers (from October to March), autumn in April and May, winter from June to August, and spring in September.

Although considerable work has been done using rainfall to determine seasonality in Southern Africa, Van der Walt believes that these methods did not work well as there are too many inconsistencies in this approach, as identified by Roffe et al. (2019, South African Geographical Journal). To make matters more complicated – as a semi-arid region, and with desert conditions along the west coast – some regions do not have enough rainfall to use as a classifier.

Temperature, on the other hand, worked well in this study. “Temperature, by contrast, is a continuous variable, and in Southern Africa has sufficient seasonal variation to allow for successful classification,” says Van der Walt.

He continues: “Although several international studies used temperature metrics to statistically classify their seasonal divisions, this study would be the first known publication in a South African context using temperature as classification metric.”

Van der Walt says what we understand as seasons largely relates to phenology – the appearance of blossoms in spring, the colouration and fall of leaves in autumn, and the migration of birds as a few examples. “These phenological shifts are more sensitive to temperature than other climatic variables.”

Seasonal brackets

According to Van der Walt, they believe that a clearly defined and communicated method should be used in defining seasons, rather than just assigning months to seasons.

“One of the most important arguments of our work is that one needs to critically consider breaks in seasons, rather than arbitrarily placing months into seasons, and so we welcome any alternate approaches,” he says.

A number of sectors apply the temperature-based division to their benefit. “For example, in the tourism sector it is becoming increasingly important to align advertising with the season most climatically suitable for tourism,” says Van der Walt.

Temperature-based division is also used to develop adaptive strategies to monitor seasonal changes in temperature under climate change. However, Van der Walt points out that each sector will have its own way of defining seasons. “Seasonal boundaries should nevertheless be clearly communicated with the logic behind them,” he says.

News Archive

Guest lecture: Mr Pretorius, CEO of McCarthy Limited

2004-11-05

The challenges facing business leaders in a rapidly changing South Africa

“The world we used to know does not exist anymore. Leaders are continually dealing with crisis and opportunities, in a high-pressure environment,” said Mr Brand Pretorius, honorary professor from the University of the Free State , delivering his 13th guest lecture on the challenges facing business leaders in a rapidly changing South Africa .

Mr Pretorius, CEO of McCarthy Limited, identified certain trends which are responsible for changes to the South African business environment. He said the South African business environment is ever-changing, fast moving, complex and unpredictable. “As business people we have to deal with the impact,” he said.

“Years ago we were globally isolated. Now we live in a shrinking borderless world with crumbling trade barriers. Globilisation of our economy is accelerating. For South African business leaders this creates a sea of export opportunities,” he said.

Although there are ongoing demands for substantial profit growth from shareholders, the days of focussing only on their interests are gone, said Mr Pretorius. Stakeholder commitment now enjoys high priority and business leaders have to deal with the challenges accompanying black economic empowerment and employment equity.

Customers are also well-informed and demanding. Business leaders could easily loose the loyalty of their customers because of a hyper-competitive environment with an oversupply of goods and services.

Mr Pretorius stated that staff want to be involved and are looking for meaning in their workplace. Employers also have to deal with HIV/Aids in their workplaces. Trauma, absenteeism and financial implications could have a great effect on the viability of a business.

Against these changes Mr Pretorius pointed out the challenges business leaders are facing. In doing so a number of questions arise. The external business climate is characterised by turbulence and change. Internally there is a need for stability and meaning. How do we handle both challenges effectively?

Because of changes strategy decay is taking place and past strategies become irrelevant. Mr Pretorius said that business leaders need to modify their business models to prevent the downfall of their companies.

It is important for leaders to know what is happening in their world. “Continuous innovation is a critical success factor. The reality is that innovation is the only insurance against irrelevance,” he said.

Because of a changed environment leaders must perform and transform, simultaneously. How do we strike a balance between focused transformation and the achievement of world class performance, asked Mr Pretorius? “We need to bring about meaningful and sustainable empowerment, in order to create an inclusive economy and society. Leadership and management profiles should reflect the diversity of our teams, however at the same time every effort should be made to stop the brain drain and retain the expertise of experienced white managers.”

He also stated that leaders have an important role to play in terms of employment creation and corporate caring. “Sustainable stability and prosperity will not materialise without efforts in this regard.”

Mr Pretorius said that above challenges could be addressed by developing the ability to focus on creating a better future, rather than defending the past, a long-term vision, facing new realities, enhancing the value of brands and mobilising IT and the Internet to serve the business and customers better.

Retaining a positive vision of the future, embracing change and transformation, building your business according to the right principles and values and aspiring to be the best are some of the guidelines, according to Mr Brand, for future business success. He stated that creating a value advantage above one’s competitors, customer satisfaction and retention and inspirational leadership will add to the success of one’s business.

“We are indeed living in the era of the ultimate challenges, but also the ultimate opportunities. Let me clearly state that I have hope – in my view the tide has turned. Every day I experience small miracles inspired by ordinary people making an extraordinary difference,” said Mr Pretorius.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
5 November 2004

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