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09 March 2018 Photo Barend Nagel
Experts engage in stimulating discussion on South Africa future
Moeletsi Mbeki, Prof Phillippe Burger, Dr Ina Gouws, and Waldimar Pelser.
The University of the Free State (UFS) and the broader Bloemfontein community had the privilege of listening to expert opinions on the country’s future at the Wynand Mouton Theatre on the Bloemfontein Campus on 2 March 2018. On stage were Waldimar Pelser, Rapport editor; Prof Phillippe Burger (Department of Economics); Dr Ina Gouws (Department of Political Studies and Governance) from UFS; and author and businessman Moeletsi Mbeki. Together they painted a critical picture of our current and future state of affairs during a remarkable morning hosted by Rapport Regstreeks and kykNET. 

The ills of our economy
Master of his subject, Prof Burger had the audience spellbound when he explained the real issues surrounding our current sluggish economy. He was concerned about the general lack of growth – the major reason for unemployment. Figures have shown that even a slight increase in economic growth, creates an increase in employment. “We know that good education leads to economic growth,” he said. Poor education is one of our big problems, with our school mathematics performance among the worst in the world. He further advised that we should roll back patronage, stabilise public debt, facilitate a true partnership between government and businesses, identify specific growth sectors, address tenure rights, develop supply chains, and develop special skills. “I believe that we should bring back apprenticeships,” he said. 

Political pains
Mostly in agreement with Prof Burger’s contribution, Mbeki wanted to add politics in the mix as a factor that harms our economy. Capturing the audience with his impressive knowledge and insight, he explained that we basically still sat with the British economic systems set out between 1902 and 1910 – the production and export of minerals, fuelled by cheap labour. The mining sector provided a market for agriculture that also used cheap labour. Currently, we sit with two elites: the capital elite that produces, and the political elite that taxes the profits. Hence, the money is not reinvested. “We need new elite, that will invest in the country, instead of consuming the profits,” he said. Who should this be? “Such a coalition must include owners of productive assets who should form an alliance with rural people.”

Remain vigilant
Dr Ina Gouws supported this notion, saying that now was not the time to put our hopes in one leader for a better future. We should remain critical and vocal about our concerns. Political leaders did not always paint a true picture of what the people wanted and felt. 

More interesting and current topics were addressed during the question and answer session, and Pelser ensured that all adhered to a strict schedule, while using the available time optimally. We hope to see more such events on campus, inviting discourse on current topics. 

News Archive

Fight against Ebola virus requires more research
2014-10-22

 

Dr Abdon Atangana
Photo: Ifa Tshishonge
Dr Abdon Atangana, a postdoctoral researcher in the Institute for Groundwater Studies at the University of the Free State (UFS), wrote an article related to the Ebola virus: Modelling the Ebola haemorrhagic fever with the beta-derivative: Deathly infection disease in West African countries.

“The filoviruses belong to a virus family named filoviridae. This virus can cause unembellished haemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman monkeys. In literature, only two members of this virus family have been mentioned, namely the Marburg virus and the Ebola virus. However, so far only five species of the Ebola virus have been identified, including:  Ivory Coast, Sudan, Zaire, Reston and Bundibugyo.

“Among these families, the Ebola virus is the only member of the Zaire Ebola virus species and also the most dangerous, being responsible for the largest number of outbreaks.

“Ebola is an unusual, but fatal virus that causes bleeding inside and outside the body. As the virus spreads through the body, it damages the immune system and organs. Ultimately, it causes the blood-clotting levels in cells to drop. This leads to severe, uncontrollable bleeding.

Since all physical problems can be modelled via mathematical equation, Dr Atangana aimed in his research (the paper was published in BioMed Research International with impact factor 2.701) to analyse the spread of this deadly disease using mathematical equations. We shall propose a model underpinning the spread of this disease in a given Sub-Saharan African country,” he said.

The mathematical equations are used to predict the future behaviour of the disease, especially the spread of the disease among the targeted population. These mathematical equations are called differential equation and are only using the concept of rate of change over time.

However, there is several definitions for derivative, and the choice of the derivative used for such a model is very important, because the more accurate the model, the better results will be obtained.  The classical derivative describes the change of rate, but it is an approximation of the real velocity of the object under study. The beta derivative is the modification of the classical derivative that takes into account the time scale and also has a new parameter that can be considered as the fractional order.  

“I have used the beta derivative to model the spread of the fatal disease called Ebola, which has killed many people in the West African countries, including Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, since December 2013,” he said.

The constructed mathematical equations were called Atangana’s Beta Ebola System of Equations (ABESE). “We did the investigation of the stable endemic points and presented the Eigen-Values using the Jacobian method. The homotopy decomposition method was used to solve the resulted system of equations. The convergence of the method was presented and some numerical simulations were done for different values of beta.

“The simulations showed that our model is more realistic for all betas less than 0.5.  The model revealed that, if there were no recovery precaution for a given population in a West African country, the entire population of that country would all die in a very short period of time, even if the total number of the infected population is very small.  In simple terms, the prediction revealed a fast spread of the virus among the targeted population. These results can be used to educate and inform people about the rapid spread of the deadly disease,” he said.

The spread of Ebola among people only occurs through direct contact with the blood or body fluids of a person after symptoms have developed. Body fluid that may contain the Ebola virus includes saliva, mucus, vomit, faeces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine and semen. Entry points include the nose, mouth, eyes, open wounds, cuts and abrasions. Note should be taken that contact with objects contaminated by the virus, particularly needles and syringes, may also transmit the infection.

“Based on the predictions in this paper, we are calling on more research regarding this disease; in particular, we are calling on researchers to pay attention to finding an efficient cure or more effective prevention, to reduce the risk of contamination,” Dr Atangana said.


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