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Prof Anthony Turton from the Centre for Environmental Management at the University of the Free State (UFS).

Since a South African team associated with the University of the Free State (UFS) became the first to isolate the SARS-CoV-2 virus from wastewater and developed a viable virus risk forensic service, there has been interest in this technology from a range of role players in North America, Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, to the South African government.

Prof Anthony Turton from the Centre for Environmental Management at the UFS says contact has been made with two separate scientific teams working in South Africa – one in the Western Cape associated with the Department of Health, and one coordinated by the Water Research Commission reporting to the Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) – both of which are developing next-generation science. 

Prof Turton says the team has also presented a formal report to the DWS to show that first-generation science is quite capable of generating accurate data that is of great value to planners by feeding into national decision-making bodies.  

A proud achievement 
“As the person who conceptualised this service, I am very proud to be a South African citizen. My background is in national security, so it was that skill set which I applied to the problem when I asked the question – how can we provide the best available information in the shortest possible time, in the face of high risk and growing uncertainty, using the best available technology? This is only possible when one is trained in the intelligence sciences. Intelligence is about converting raw data, often from contested sources, into actionable bits of information with a defined level of certainty.” 
“However, the truly remarkable portion is the team that we rapidly assembled. By hand-picking the right kind of people for the team, we could unlock the power of synergy where 1 + 1 becomes 3. We, as South Africans, have developed a world first, and this is something we can collectively be deeply proud of. This is a proudly South African achievement, not an individual achievement. The benefits belong to society, because even when I was at the CSIR, I championed the notion of ‘science in the service of society’, and here we have another example,” says Prof Turton.

Using available technology
With the 824 wastewater treatment works (WWTW) in the country, the DWS can rapidly deploy this technology to any existing area of concern if they see value in it.  “At present, government is waiting for second-generation science to become available, but that is probably 24 months away at best. In the interim, a crisis is unfolding in the present, and first-generation science is clearly capable of providing sufficiently accurate information to assist in decision-making around the deployment of increasingly scarce resources.”

“DWS used similar technology in the cholera crisis a while back, so they are aware of the benefits. From a society perspective, the question is whether government must wait for the second-generation science to emerge before using the technology, even though first-generation technology can provide an important part of the missing data as explained above. This is what the foreign entities have grasped.”

According to Prof Turton, the interest shown in this technology is from both government and the private sector in North America, Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. A number of key decision-makers see the value of this technology in mitigating both financial and political risk. 

“They recognise that this pandemic is here to stay for a while, so they intend to get ahead of the curve, which is what the forensics service allows. An example is a condominium where a few hundred people live, but who are unable to use the facilities that they pay levies for. This service will enable all residents in a specific condominium to rebuild trust that they live in a ‘safe space’.” 

“For government, they recognise that this technology can feed data into their mapping systems. They refer to a ‘heat map’ that shows areas of viral activity and areas of relative safety. In one case, the focus is on monitoring each building in a city to identify which building is safe and which is a hot spot,” says Prof Turton. 

Next-generation science 
He explains that next-generation science refers to the algorithms used to extrapolate viral-load data to a larger cohort of people. The first-generation science was about the detection of the virus as a binary measurement: “Is the virus present, yes or no?”

“The current science can do this without a problem. Second-generation science is about how much virus is present? Is this more, or less, than we saw last week? If so, how much bigger or smaller is the signal? If so, can we mathematically calculate from a defined quantum of signal an accurate probability of the total viral load in the population being sampled?” 

“From this, can we say that 15% of the population is shedding virus (a number currently only possible from sewage surveillance) but personal testing shows us that only 5% of the population is positive? If so, we can then say that 10% of the population is both positive and asymptomatic. This has major implications for decision-makers, business owners, tourism operators, and governments who are losing revenue because of failing economies.” 
More importantly, says Prof Turton, is that this missing piece of data will become vital in testing for herd immunity, or the efficacy of a vaccine once available. 

The cost of the service 
By presenting a formal report to DWS, the team was able to get an accurate costing of the service. The cost of a single sewage sample, which can accurately monitor a geographically defined cohort (let’s say 100 000 people for the sake of illustration), is equivalent to 15–20 individual samples (nasal swabs, for example). “We can sample 100 000 people at the same cost as 15 can be sampled individually. More importantly, it is highly unlikely that any government in the world will ever reach anything more than 10% sampling at individual level. This tells us that while individual sampling might be very useful, it is logistically complex, and has a political risk when it cannot be rolled out across a large enough portion of society,” says Prof Turton.  

“The virus-risk forensic service that we have been developing can identify specific hot-spot areas, and those can be targeted for higher saturation coverage of individual testing. For example, in the DWS PoC, we identified one specific WWTW that is a definite hot spot, but another that has no viral signal at all. This means that those people living in the area with no viral signal are safe and do not need to be individually tested, but those in the hot spot need to be isolated and targeted for individual testing. More importantly, we can now say that the hot-spot area is likely to result in demand for medical services in a specific area, so planning can be done before the wave hits the hospital,” explains Prof Turton.   
With the submission of the formal report to government, the Business Water Chamber, and the Public Private Growth Initiative (PPGI), we can now announce a team to offer this virus-risk forensic service to any party with a need for this support in both the public and private sectors.

The team is:  
• Prof Anthony Turton – Centre for Environmental Management at the UFS, responsible for the conceptual design of the virus-risk forensic service. 

• Dr Mpafane Deyi – a graduate from the UFS and CEO of Amanzi-4-All, responsible for implementation of the service to both private and public sector partners.

• Dr Leon Geustyn – Director of Amanzi-4-All, responsible for the mathematical and technical aspects of the risk-based diagnostic service. 

• Dr Shaun Groenink – Director of GreenHill Laboratories, responsible for the laboratory support required.
• Dr Cara-Lesley Bartlett – Senior Scientist at GreenHill Laboratories.

• Mr Neil Madgwick – Director of Praecautio, responsible for the coordination of laboratories as the service grows across the African continent.

• Mr Kevin Lindsay – Director of Instru-Serve, responsible for the refinement of bulk sampling techniques and the supply chain from point of collection to the laboratories.
 

News Archive

Media: ANC can learn a lesson from Moshoeshoe
2006-05-20


27/05/2006 20:32 - (SA) 
ANC can learn a lesson from Moshoeshoe
ON 2004, the University of the Free State turned 100 years old. As part of its centenary celebrations, the idea of the Moshoeshoe Memorial Lecture was mooted as part of another idea: to promote the study of the meaning of Moshoeshoe.

This lecture comes at a critical point in South Africa's still-new democracy. There are indications that the value of public engagement that Moshoeshoe prized highly through his lipitso [community gatherings], and now also a prized feature in our democracy, may be under serious threat. It is for this reason that I would like to dedicate this lecture to all those in our country and elsewhere who daily or weekly, or however frequently, have had the courage to express their considered opinions on pressing matters facing our society. They may be columnists, editors, commentators, artists of all kinds, academics and writers of letters to the editor, non-violent protesters with their placards and cartoonists who put a mirror in front of our eyes.

There is a remarkable story of how Moshoeshoe dealt with Mzilikazi, the aggressor who attacked Thaba Bosiu and failed. So when Mzilikazi retreated from Thaba Bosiu with a bruised ego after failing to take over the mountain, Moshoeshoe, in an unexpected turn of events, sent him cattle to return home bruised but grateful for the generosity of a victorious target of his aggression. At least he would not starve along the way. It was a devastating act of magnanimity which signalled a phenomenal role change.

"If only you had asked," Moshoeshoe seemed to be saying, "I could have given you some cattle. Have them anyway."

It was impossible for Mzilikazi not to have felt ashamed. At the same time, he could still present himself to his people as one who was so feared that even in defeat he was given cattle. At any rate, he never returned.

I look at our situation in South Africa and find that the wisdom of Moshoeshoe's method produced one of the defining moments that led to South Africa's momentous transition to democracy. Part of Nelson Mandela's legacy is precisely this: what I have called counter-intuitive leadership and the immense possibilities it offers for re-imagining whole societies.

A number of events in the past 12 months have made me wonder whether we are faced with a new situation that may have arisen. An increasing number of highly intelligent, sensitive and highly committed South Africans across the class, racial and cultural spectrum confess to feeling uncertain and vulnerable as never before since 1994. When indomitable optimists confess to having a sense of things unhinging, the misery of anxiety spreads. It must have something to do with an accumulation of events that convey the sense of impending implosion. It is the sense that events are spiralling out of control and no one among the leadership of the country seems to have a handle on things.

I should mention the one event that has dominated the national scene continuously for many months now. It is, of course, the trying events around the recent trial and acquittal of Jacob Zuma. The aftermath continues to dominate the news and public discourse. What, really, have we learnt or are learning from it all? It is probably too early to tell. Yet the drama seems far from over, promising to keep us all without relief, and in a state of anguish. It seems poised to reveal more faultlines in our national life than answers and solutions.

We need a mechanism that will affirm the different positions of the contestants validating their honesty in a way that will give the public confidence that real solutions are possible. It is this kind of openness, which never comes easily, that leads to breakthrough solutions, of the kind Moshoeshoe's wisdom symbolises.

Who will take this courageous step? What is clear is that a complex democracy like South Africa's cannot survive a single authority. Only multiple authorities within a constitutional framework have a real chance. I want to press this matter further.

Could it be that part of the problem is that we are unable to deal with the notion of "opposition". We are horrified that any of us could become "the opposition". In reality, it is time we began to anticipate the arrival of a moment when there was no longer a single [overwhelmingly] dominant political force as is currently the case. Such is the course of change. The measure of the maturity of the current political environment will be in how it can create conditions that anticipate that moment rather than ones that seek to prevent it. This is the formidable challenge of a popular post-apartheid political movement.

Can it conceptually anticipate a future when it is no longer overwhelmingly in control, in the form in which it currently is and resist, counter-intuitively, the temptation to prevent such an eventuality? Successfully resisting such an option would enable its current vision and its ultimate legacy to our country to manifest itself in different articulations of itself, which then contend for social influence.

In this way, the vision never really dies, it simply evolves into higher, more complex forms of itself. If the resulting versions are what is called "the opposition" that should not be such a bad thing - unless we want to invent another name for it. The image of flying ants going off to start other similar settlements is not so inappropriate.

I do not wish to suggest that the nuptial flights of the alliance partners are about to occur: only that it is a mark of leadership foresight to anticipate them conceptually. Any political movement that has visions of itself as a perpetual entity should look at the compelling evidence of history. Few have survived those defining moments when they should have been more elastic, and that because they were not, did not live to see the next day.

I believe we may have reached a moment not fundamentally different from the sobering, yet uplifting and vision-making, nation-building realities that led to Kempton Park in the early 1990s. The difference between then and now is that the black majority is not facing white compatriots across the negotiating table. Rather, it is facing itself: perhaps really for the first time since 1994. It is not a time for repeating old platitudes. Could we apply to ourselves the same degree of inventiveness and rigorous negotiation we displayed up to the adoption or our Constitution?

Morena Moshoeshoe faced similarly formative challenges. He seems to have been a great listener. No problem was too insignificant that it could not be addressed. He seems to have networked actively across the spectrum of society. He seems to have kept a close eye on the world beyond Lesotho, forming strong friendships and alliances, weighing his options constantly. He seems to have had patience and forbearance. He had tons of data before him before he could propose the unexpected. He tells us across the years that moments of renewal demand no less.

  • This is an editied version of the inaugural Moshoeshoe Memorial Lecture presented by Univeristy of Cape Town vice-chancellor Professor Ndebele at the University of the Free State on Thursday. Perspectives on Leadership Challenges In South Africa

 

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