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15 July 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the fracture lines in societies worldwide. South Africa is no different. The poor are less able to protect themselves from the danger posed by the virus. Workers in factories, mines, and the service sector went back to their places of work following the lifting of the strictest lockdown measures, while office workers, typically better paid, can generally work from home. Living conditions in informal settlements make social distancing all but impossible, while the middle class can largely stay at home and stay safe to a much larger extent. With many businesses shutting down, downsizing or rethinking their business models, it is often small and medium, as well as informal sector businesses that are most affected.  

The impact of COVID-19 comes on the back of a society and economy that was already under significant pressure following years of low economic growth and poor government performance. Many commentators have already questioned the social compact South Africans made in the mid-1990s, which marked the end of the apartheid regime. These divisions have become more glaring, with some civil society organisations considering challenging the Minister of Finance’s adjustment budget in the Constitutional Court, because the budget might result in a roll-back of the progressive realisation of the socio-economic rights mandated in the Constitution.

In this first of four webinars, academics from the UFS as well as invited experts reflect on the constitutional commitment South Africans made to one another two and half decades ago. Is it time for a new deal? Should we collectively recommit ourselves to our existing deal? Do we interpret that deal in the same way today as we did more than two decades ago? How does the economic reality we face, particularly in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis, affect that deal? What are the economic realities we face, and whose are they? And how should we think about human development in the context of our deal? 

Come and join us from 14:00 to 15:30 on 21 July. 

RSVP to Sibongile Mlotya at MlotyaS@ufs.ac.za no later than 19 July, upon which you will receive a Business for Skype meeting invite.

Speakers:
Prof Danie Brand on ‘New deal’ or collective recommitment? The Constitution under COVID-19 and beyond

Prof Melanie Walker on Human development and the capability approach in COVID-19 times

Prof Lochner Marais on Reflections on continuities and discontinuities after COVID-19

Prof Philippe Burger on Viewing the realisation of socio-economic rights in a post-COVID-19 South Africa through an economic lens

 

Please also mark the following dates in your diaries for the second through fourth Reflection webinars:
Gender Inequalities and Gender-based Violence 28 July 14:00-15:30
The quality of our democracy under COVID-19 and beyond 13 August 14:00-15:30
Urban living post-COVID-19 27 August 14:00-15:30

News Archive

Fight against Ebola virus requires more research
2014-10-22

 

Dr Abdon Atangana
Photo: Ifa Tshishonge
Dr Abdon Atangana, a postdoctoral researcher in the Institute for Groundwater Studies at the University of the Free State (UFS), wrote an article related to the Ebola virus: Modelling the Ebola haemorrhagic fever with the beta-derivative: Deathly infection disease in West African countries.

“The filoviruses belong to a virus family named filoviridae. This virus can cause unembellished haemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman monkeys. In literature, only two members of this virus family have been mentioned, namely the Marburg virus and the Ebola virus. However, so far only five species of the Ebola virus have been identified, including:  Ivory Coast, Sudan, Zaire, Reston and Bundibugyo.

“Among these families, the Ebola virus is the only member of the Zaire Ebola virus species and also the most dangerous, being responsible for the largest number of outbreaks.

“Ebola is an unusual, but fatal virus that causes bleeding inside and outside the body. As the virus spreads through the body, it damages the immune system and organs. Ultimately, it causes the blood-clotting levels in cells to drop. This leads to severe, uncontrollable bleeding.

Since all physical problems can be modelled via mathematical equation, Dr Atangana aimed in his research (the paper was published in BioMed Research International with impact factor 2.701) to analyse the spread of this deadly disease using mathematical equations. We shall propose a model underpinning the spread of this disease in a given Sub-Saharan African country,” he said.

The mathematical equations are used to predict the future behaviour of the disease, especially the spread of the disease among the targeted population. These mathematical equations are called differential equation and are only using the concept of rate of change over time.

However, there is several definitions for derivative, and the choice of the derivative used for such a model is very important, because the more accurate the model, the better results will be obtained.  The classical derivative describes the change of rate, but it is an approximation of the real velocity of the object under study. The beta derivative is the modification of the classical derivative that takes into account the time scale and also has a new parameter that can be considered as the fractional order.  

“I have used the beta derivative to model the spread of the fatal disease called Ebola, which has killed many people in the West African countries, including Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, since December 2013,” he said.

The constructed mathematical equations were called Atangana’s Beta Ebola System of Equations (ABESE). “We did the investigation of the stable endemic points and presented the Eigen-Values using the Jacobian method. The homotopy decomposition method was used to solve the resulted system of equations. The convergence of the method was presented and some numerical simulations were done for different values of beta.

“The simulations showed that our model is more realistic for all betas less than 0.5.  The model revealed that, if there were no recovery precaution for a given population in a West African country, the entire population of that country would all die in a very short period of time, even if the total number of the infected population is very small.  In simple terms, the prediction revealed a fast spread of the virus among the targeted population. These results can be used to educate and inform people about the rapid spread of the deadly disease,” he said.

The spread of Ebola among people only occurs through direct contact with the blood or body fluids of a person after symptoms have developed. Body fluid that may contain the Ebola virus includes saliva, mucus, vomit, faeces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine and semen. Entry points include the nose, mouth, eyes, open wounds, cuts and abrasions. Note should be taken that contact with objects contaminated by the virus, particularly needles and syringes, may also transmit the infection.

“Based on the predictions in this paper, we are calling on more research regarding this disease; in particular, we are calling on researchers to pay attention to finding an efficient cure or more effective prevention, to reduce the risk of contamination,” Dr Atangana said.


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