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12 October 2020 | Story Andre Damons
Prof Ivan Turok
Prof Ivan Turok, National Research Foundation research professor at the University of the Free State (UFS) and distinguished research fellow at the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC).

New evidence provides a detailed picture of the extraordinary economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. All regions lost about a fifth of their jobs between February-April, although the cities began to show signs of recovery with the easing of the lockdown to level 3. Half of all adults in rural areas were unemployed by June, compared with a third in the metros. So the crisis has amplified pre-existing disparities between cities and rural areas.

Prof Ivan Turok, National Research Foundation research professor at the University of the Free State (UFS) and distinguished research fellow at the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), and Dr Justin Visagie, a research specialist with the HSRC, analysed the impact of the crisis on different locations in a research report (Visagie & Turok 2020).

The main conclusion is that government responses need to be targeted more carefully to the distinctive challenges and opportunities of different places. A uniform, nationwide approach that treats places equally will not narrow (or even maintain) the gaps between them, just as the blanket lockdown reflex had adverse unintended consequences for jobs and livelihoods.

According to the authors, the crisis has also enlarged the chasm between suburbs, townships and informal settlements within cities. More than a third of all shack dwellers (36%) lost their jobs between February and April, compared with a quarter (24%) in the townships and one in seven (14%) in the suburbs. These effects are unprecedented.

Government grants have helped to ameliorate hardship in poor communities, but premature withdrawal of temporary relief schemes would be a serious setback for people who have come to rely on these resources following the collapse of jobs, such as unemployed men.

Before COVID-19

In February 2020, the proportion of adults in paid employment in the metros was 57%. In smaller cities and towns it was 46% and in rural areas 42%. This was a big gap, reflecting the relatively fragile local economies outside the large cities.
Similar differences existed within urban areas. The proportion of adults living in the suburbs who were in paid employment was 58%. In the townships it was 51% and in peri-urban areas it was 45%.

These employment disparities were partly offset by cash transfers to alleviate poverty among children and pensioners. Social grants were the main source of income for more than half of rural households and were also important in townships and informal settlements, although not to the same extent as in rural areas.  

Despite the social grants, households in rural areas were still far more likely to run out of money to buy food than in the cities.

How did the lockdown affect jobs?

The hard lockdown haemorrhaged jobs and incomes everywhere. However, the effects were worse in some places than in others. Shack dwellers were particularly vulnerable to the level 5 lockdown and restrictions on informal enterprise. This magnified pre-existing divides between suburbs, townships and informal settlements within cities.
There appears to have been a slight recovery in the suburbs between April-June, mostly as a result of furloughed workers being brought back onto the payroll. Few new jobs were created. Other areas showed less signs of bouncing back.

Overall, the economic crisis has hit poor urban communities much harder than the suburbs, resulting in a rate of unemployment in June of 42-43% in townships and informal settlements compared with 24% in the suburbs. The collapse poses a massive challenge for the recovery, and requires the government to mobilise resources from the whole of society.


News Archive

From music to theology: Stats Unit valuable in research process
2017-02-23

Description: Prof Robert Schall Tags: Prof Robert Schall

Prof Schall, head of the UFS Statistical Consultation Unit
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs

Whether it is analysing data on church attendance, climate change in the Northern Cape or injuries among elite female hockey players, the Statistical Consultation Unit at the University of the Free State (UFS) can assist researchers from the planning of research to publication therof.

Many students and researchers think that the time to consult a statistician is after their research data has been collected. According to Prof Robert Schall, head of the unit, the most significant contribution a statistician can make to a research project is often during its planning. Preferably all researchers should consult the unit early in the research process.

Statistical consultation service free for postgraduates

The consultation unit, established in 2014 in the Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, provides support to all UFS researchers. This service is rendered to postgraduate students at no charge.

“The unit can make a contribution throughout the research process, from the planning of the research project, through the analysis of research data, up to the publication of the findings. I have been involved in projects where, for example, a few very simple changes to the design of a questionnaire would have saved the researcher and the statistician a lot of trouble. It will be beneficial for researchers to have their questionnaires and study proposals (where relevant), reviewed by a statistician,” Prof Schall said.

“The unit can make a contribution
throughout the research process,
from the planning of the research
project, through the analysis of
research data, up to the publication
of the findings.”

Fascinating research topics deliver fascinating data
The professor assisted in a study for the Department of Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences to determine whether rainfall in the Northern Cape had changed over the past 90 years, potentially indicating climate change.

Other interesting projects he has worked on came from the Department of Exercise and Sport Sciences. “Who will not be fascinated by data sets on aspects of rugby, cricket or even netball? One significant finding was a predictor of injury in elite female hockey players. The PhD student identified a pre-season test which predicted the occurrence of an in-season injury with 100% specificity and 100% sensitivity. The finding was quite surprising, and, if the results can be replicated, obviously would be useful in the prevention of injuries,” he said.

This is, of course, not an exhaustive list of projects the unit has worked on. “Not in my wildest dreams would I have expected to be involved in projects coming from the Faculty of Theology, or from the Odeion School of Music,” Prof Schall said.

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