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29 March 2021 | Story Prof Theo Neethling | Photo Johan Roux
Prof Theo Neethling is from the Department of Political Studies and Governance at the University of the Free State

The Cabo Delgado province in the northernmost part of the long Mozambican seaboard is now home to Africa’s three largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects; these projects have attracted many of the world’s major multinational energy companies, accompanied by massive LNG investments. There can be little doubt that the discovery of rich LNG reserves is a potential game changer for Mozambique’s economy and the development agenda of the country. It is potentially an opportunity for the rapid advancement of a country that currently ranks close to the bottom of the United Nation’s Human Development Index. World Bank data annually ranks Mozambique as among the poorest countries in the world.

Mozambique ‘has hit the jackpot’

Since 2011, rich LNG reserves have been discovered off the coast of Cabo Delgado in the Rovuma Basin. With the discovery of major offshore gas fields, many observers have been prompted to suggest that Mozambique, one of the poorest countries in the world, ‘has hit the jackpot’ – and recently, it has been claimed that by the mid-2020s, Mozambique could become one of the top ten LNG producers globally. Together, the gas projects are estimated to be worth $60 billion, and this could obviously revolutionise Mozambique’s economy of $15 billion.

However, despite the billions in investments by major multinational energy companies since 2012, the people of Cabo Delgado are yet to see the material benefits from these projects. One of the biggest risks for international investors in the LNG industry is the many unknowns associated with the threat posed by the militant Islamic movement, Ansar al-Sunna, which has especially been active in the Cabo Delgado province since 2017. Whereas Ansar al-Sunna, locally known as Al-Shabaab, initially advocated the ‘purification’ of Islam in Mozambique by preaching a moving away from the practices of the mystical traditions of Muslim Sufis – who are the majority of Muslims in Mozambique – and projecting Sufis as degenerate, the movement eventually made it clear that its goal was to impose Sharia law (Islamic law) in Cabo Delgado.

Since independence in 1994, the central government of Maputo has lacked a monopoly over the means of violence in its territory and its long coastline. In this context, Renamo regularly clashed with the central government in a 16-year civil war that claimed more than a million lives. Fast forward to the future – Ansar al-Sunna with its ISIS links now poses the main security threat to the Mozambican government and its armed forces.

The situation has gone from bad to worse

The escalation of violence and armed conflict since early 2020 has raised some pressing questions over the future of LNG investments, and even put the future of the LNG industry at high risk. Obviously, the foreign companies with their substantial investments feel threatened, especially at the current stage where final investment decisions have to be taken.

In recent months, the situation in Cabo Delgado has gone from bad to worse. In November 2020, dozens of people were reportedly beheaded by Islamic militants in northern Mozambique. Now the beheadings and bloodshed have spread to the town of Palma; taking the bloodshed to another level. This is not good news for the LNG industry in Mozambique, as Palma is supposed to become the manufacturing hub where hundreds of skilled workers will be located.

Amid the development of an increasingly alarming human rights situation towards the end of last year, including the killing of civilians by insurgents, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, has appealed for urgent measures to protect civilians in what she described as a “desperate” situation and one of “grave human rights abuses”. She also stated that more than 350 000 people have been displaced since 2018.

In conclusion, there is little doubt that Islamist insurgents have managed to increase the scale of their activities in Cabo Delgado, and that the lack of governance and a proper security response by both the Mozambican government and Southern African leaders make this a case of high political risk, which can potentially jeopardise the successful unlocking of the country’s resource wealth. Until now, the main LNG installations and sites have not been targeted or directly affected, but the security risks to these vast investments – and Mozambique’s development potential – are certainly on the increase and posing a threat to the LNG industry.

Opinion article by Prof Theo Neethling, Department of Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State 

 


News Archive

The launch of a unique conservation project
2011-06-06

 

Our Department of Animal, Wildlife and Grassland Sciences launched a very special pilot project at Woodland Hills Wildlife Estate in Bloemfontein on Friday 03 June 2011, which aims to eventually aid in the conservation and study of one of Africa’s most graceful animals.

The project aims to provide the scientific basis needed for making future decisions in the best interests of the giraffe in the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park in the Northern Cape and involves collaring and monitoring the behaviour and movement of these animals via GPS.

Based on the public interest in the giraffe and the increased impact of the growing giraffe population on the vegetation in the area, SANParks has been considering the translocation of a number of Kgalagadi giraffe. Due to limited information regarding their adaptation success and potential impact on their new environment, thorough planning and subsequent monitoring of the species is required.

Mr Francois Deacon from our university decided to undertake a PhD study to address the existing challenges. This will be the first study of its kind, undertaken on giraffe.

He says he decided on this project because of his love for animals and conservation. “There are nine sub-species of giraffe and seven of these are already endangered. I want to involve people and make them aware of the plight of the animals and the need for conservation,” he said.

The project kicked off on Friday morning, with a group of students and curious nature-lovers tracking a herd of giraffe at Woodland Hills. The challenge laid in identifying one of the animals which could easily be collared with a GPS device, tranquilising it, and applying the device, without harming the animal.

After a young bull was identified, it was up to Dr Floris Coetzee, a veterinarian, to get close enough to the animal to tranquilise it, and to the group of students to catch it and hold it down. All this was done perfectly and the animal was fitted with its new collars. The collars were designed and made by Mr Martin Haupt, who gained extensive experience in the design of similar collars for other research studies.

Mr Deacon will spend the following two weeks personally monitoring the animal constantly, to ensure that the collars do not cause any discomfort or injury and to determine whether it should be removed or adapted.

It has taken Mr Deacon over a year to plan the collaring process and the associated study. He says the main challenges in the project are financial, since it will cost approximately R500 000 to run over five years.

Thus far he has been supported by Mr Pieter Malan of Woodland Hills, Mr Cas Kempff of Cas Kempff Consulting Engineers and Prof. Frans Swanepoel of the UFS’ Directorate of Research Development, all of whom have been benefactors of the project.
Information gathered from the pilot project will provide the data to assess how to best fit the collar onto the giraffe to ensure that the animal is comfortable and that the collar will last in the wild.  Scientific data will be generated and processed for use by the Woodland Hills Wildlife Estate management.

Should the pilot project be successful, between four and eight giraffe in the Kgalagadi will be tracked using the satellite GPS collars. The GPS collars will enable the constant recording of the location of individual giraffe for up to 2 years. This will allow control and monitoring of the animals in real-time.

The main benefits of the project include, amongst others, improved decision-making, informing tourism development, education and community involvement, improved sustainability and improved cross-border collaboration between South Africa and Botswana.

Anyone who wishes to get involved with the project or get more information, should contact Me. Sonja Buhrmann at sbuhrmann@vodamail.co.za or 0827735768.
 

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