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29 March 2021 | Story Prof Theo Neethling | Photo Johan Roux
Prof Theo Neethling is from the Department of Political Studies and Governance at the University of the Free State
The Cabo Delgado province in the northernmost part of the long Mozambican seaboard is now home to Africa’s three largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects; these projects have attracted many of the world’s major multinational energy companies, accompanied by massive LNG investments. There can be little doubt that the discovery of rich LNG reserves is a potential game changer for Mozambique’s economy and the development agenda of the country. It is potentially an opportunity for the rapid advancement of a country that currently ranks close to the bottom of the United Nation’s Human Development Index. World Bank data annually ranks Mozambique as among the poorest countries in the world.

Mozambique ‘has hit the jackpot’

Since 2011, rich LNG reserves have been discovered off the coast of Cabo Delgado in the Rovuma Basin. With the discovery of major offshore gas fields, many observers have been prompted to suggest that Mozambique, one of the poorest countries in the world, ‘has hit the jackpot’ – and recently, it has been claimed that by the mid-2020s, Mozambique could become one of the top ten LNG producers globally. Together, the gas projects are estimated to be worth $60 billion, and this could obviously revolutionise Mozambique’s economy of $15 billion.

However, despite the billions in investments by major multinational energy companies since 2012, the people of Cabo Delgado are yet to see the material benefits from these projects. One of the biggest risks for international investors in the LNG industry is the many unknowns associated with the threat posed by the militant Islamic movement, Ansar al-Sunna, which has especially been active in the Cabo Delgado province since 2017. Whereas Ansar al-Sunna, locally known as Al-Shabaab, initially advocated the ‘purification’ of Islam in Mozambique by preaching a moving away from the practices of the mystical traditions of Muslim Sufis – who are the majority of Muslims in Mozambique – and projecting Sufis as degenerate, the movement eventually made it clear that its goal was to impose Sharia law (Islamic law) in Cabo Delgado.

Since independence in 1994, the central government of Maputo has lacked a monopoly over the means of violence in its territory and its long coastline. In this context, Renamo regularly clashed with the central government in a 16-year civil war that claimed more than a million lives. Fast forward to the future – Ansar al-Sunna with its ISIS links now poses the main security threat to the Mozambican government and its armed forces.

The situation has gone from bad to worse

The escalation of violence and armed conflict since early 2020 has raised some pressing questions over the future of LNG investments, and even put the future of the LNG industry at high risk. Obviously, the foreign companies with their substantial investments feel threatened, especially at the current stage where final investment decisions have to be taken.

In recent months, the situation in Cabo Delgado has gone from bad to worse. In November 2020, dozens of people were reportedly beheaded by Islamic militants in northern Mozambique. Now the beheadings and bloodshed have spread to the town of Palma; taking the bloodshed to another level. This is not good news for the LNG industry in Mozambique, as Palma is supposed to become the manufacturing hub where hundreds of skilled workers will be located.

Amid the development of an increasingly alarming human rights situation towards the end of last year, including the killing of civilians by insurgents, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, has appealed for urgent measures to protect civilians in what she described as a “desperate” situation and one of “grave human rights abuses”. She also stated that more than 350 000 people have been displaced since 2018.

In conclusion, there is little doubt that Islamist insurgents have managed to increase the scale of their activities in Cabo Delgado, and that the lack of governance and a proper security response by both the Mozambican government and Southern African leaders make this a case of high political risk, which can potentially jeopardise the successful unlocking of the country’s resource wealth. Until now, the main LNG installations and sites have not been targeted or directly affected, but the security risks to these vast investments – and Mozambique’s development potential – are certainly on the increase and posing a threat to the LNG industry.

Opinion article by Prof Theo Neethling, Department of Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State 

 


News Archive

Full week of graduation ceremonies at UFS in April
2015-04-10

Autumn always sees the UFS’s first graduation ceremony of the year on the Bloemfontein Campus.

From 14 – 17 April 2015, graduates will once again be rewarded for their hard work while top speakers will address them in the Callie Human Centre. There will be a ceremony at 09:00 and at 14:30 each day on all four days of the graduation.

The programme for the 2015 April Graduation is as follows:

Tuesday 14 April 2015:

Professor Himla Soodyall will be the speaker at both ceremonies on this day. Prof Soodyall is a Medical Scientist for the South African Institute for Medical Research. She is also a Principal Medical Scientist for the National Health Laboratory Service, and a Director for the Human Genome Diversity and Disease Research Unit at the University of Witwatersrand.

During the first ceremony of the day at 09:00, all diplomas/certificates and B degrees in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences will be awarded. Only Honours degrees in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences will be awarded at the 14:30 ceremony.
 
Wednesday 15 April 2015:

Wednesday will see Ndumiso Hadebe take the stage to address graduates at both ceremonies.

At the age of 23, Hadebe is the Founder and Managing Director of Master Frontiers Consulting, a firm that capacitates leaders and managers to achieve business goals through their people. He worked previously as a Researcher at Shanduka Black Umbrellas, a flagship enterprise and supplier development programme of the Shanduka Foundation. 

He has been received numerous awards for excellence in leadership, such as the Sedibeng District Municipal Mayor’s Award for Service and Leadership. He is a Brand South Africa Ambassador and Read Educational Trust Ambassador.

All diplomas/certificates, B and Honours degrees in the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, except B Com degrees, will be awarded during the morning ceremony at 09:00. Later, at the 14:30 ceremony, only B Com degrees in the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences will be awarded.

Thursday 16 April 2015:

Multiple award winning South African TV presenter, Leanne Manas, will be the speaker at both Thursday ceremonies.

Manas has graced our screens for over a decade. Not many broadcasters can boast having had live TV experience, 5 days a week for 12 years. She is currently the anchor of SABC 2’s flagship breakfast programme, Morning Live. Leanne is a qualified Speech and Drama teacher. having studied at London Trinity College. She also has an Honours degree in English.
Diplomas/certificates up to and including Honours degrees in the Faculty of the Humanities, Social Sciences, and Communication Sciences will be awarded during the ceremony at 09:00. The 14:30 ceremony will have diplomas/certificates up to and including Honours degrees in the Faculty of the Humanities’ other qualifications except for Social Sciences and Communication Sciences.
 
Friday 17 April 2015:

Dr Maria Phalime will be the speaker at both ceremonies on Friday.

Phalime is a medical doctor and award-winning author. She practiced for a brief period as a general practitioner in South Africa and the United Kingdom, before leaving medical practice to pursue non-clinical interests. She has worked in trade and investment promotion, and has undertaken research and consulting in the areas of economic development and business facilitation.

Diplomas/certificates up to and including Honours degrees in the Faculty of Education (CE, NPDE and ACE excluded) will be awarded during the ceremony at 09:00. Diplomas/certificates up to and including Honours degrees in the Faculties of Health Sciences, Law, and Theology will be awarded at the 14:30 ceremony.

Click here for the simple layout of the 2015 April Graduation programme:
http://www.ufs.ac.za/adhoc-pages/2014-graduation-ceremony/graduation-ceremony

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