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29 March 2021 | Story Prof Theo Neethling | Photo Johan Roux
Prof Theo Neethling is from the Department of Political Studies and Governance at the University of the Free State

The Cabo Delgado province in the northernmost part of the long Mozambican seaboard is now home to Africa’s three largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects; these projects have attracted many of the world’s major multinational energy companies, accompanied by massive LNG investments. There can be little doubt that the discovery of rich LNG reserves is a potential game changer for Mozambique’s economy and the development agenda of the country. It is potentially an opportunity for the rapid advancement of a country that currently ranks close to the bottom of the United Nation’s Human Development Index. World Bank data annually ranks Mozambique as among the poorest countries in the world.

Mozambique ‘has hit the jackpot’

Since 2011, rich LNG reserves have been discovered off the coast of Cabo Delgado in the Rovuma Basin. With the discovery of major offshore gas fields, many observers have been prompted to suggest that Mozambique, one of the poorest countries in the world, ‘has hit the jackpot’ – and recently, it has been claimed that by the mid-2020s, Mozambique could become one of the top ten LNG producers globally. Together, the gas projects are estimated to be worth $60 billion, and this could obviously revolutionise Mozambique’s economy of $15 billion.

However, despite the billions in investments by major multinational energy companies since 2012, the people of Cabo Delgado are yet to see the material benefits from these projects. One of the biggest risks for international investors in the LNG industry is the many unknowns associated with the threat posed by the militant Islamic movement, Ansar al-Sunna, which has especially been active in the Cabo Delgado province since 2017. Whereas Ansar al-Sunna, locally known as Al-Shabaab, initially advocated the ‘purification’ of Islam in Mozambique by preaching a moving away from the practices of the mystical traditions of Muslim Sufis – who are the majority of Muslims in Mozambique – and projecting Sufis as degenerate, the movement eventually made it clear that its goal was to impose Sharia law (Islamic law) in Cabo Delgado.

Since independence in 1994, the central government of Maputo has lacked a monopoly over the means of violence in its territory and its long coastline. In this context, Renamo regularly clashed with the central government in a 16-year civil war that claimed more than a million lives. Fast forward to the future – Ansar al-Sunna with its ISIS links now poses the main security threat to the Mozambican government and its armed forces.

The situation has gone from bad to worse

The escalation of violence and armed conflict since early 2020 has raised some pressing questions over the future of LNG investments, and even put the future of the LNG industry at high risk. Obviously, the foreign companies with their substantial investments feel threatened, especially at the current stage where final investment decisions have to be taken.

In recent months, the situation in Cabo Delgado has gone from bad to worse. In November 2020, dozens of people were reportedly beheaded by Islamic militants in northern Mozambique. Now the beheadings and bloodshed have spread to the town of Palma; taking the bloodshed to another level. This is not good news for the LNG industry in Mozambique, as Palma is supposed to become the manufacturing hub where hundreds of skilled workers will be located.

Amid the development of an increasingly alarming human rights situation towards the end of last year, including the killing of civilians by insurgents, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, has appealed for urgent measures to protect civilians in what she described as a “desperate” situation and one of “grave human rights abuses”. She also stated that more than 350 000 people have been displaced since 2018.

In conclusion, there is little doubt that Islamist insurgents have managed to increase the scale of their activities in Cabo Delgado, and that the lack of governance and a proper security response by both the Mozambican government and Southern African leaders make this a case of high political risk, which can potentially jeopardise the successful unlocking of the country’s resource wealth. Until now, the main LNG installations and sites have not been targeted or directly affected, but the security risks to these vast investments – and Mozambique’s development potential – are certainly on the increase and posing a threat to the LNG industry.

Opinion article by Prof Theo Neethling, Department of Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State 

 


News Archive

UFS enhances Geography in schools
2015-05-11

The Green Box

The Department of Geography at the University of the Free State (UFS), in association with the Society of South African Geographers (SSAG), is doing their part in providing curriculum support to schools. Dr Ruth Massey and Anneri Pretorius are the project managers of Green Box, an initiative to advance Geography in schools.

The Green Box supports the intermediate phase of schooling (Grades 4, 5, 6). According to Dr Massey, the worksheets and activities provided in the Green Box are aligned with the Curriculum and Assessment Policy Statements (CAPS) and the new curriculum. “These worksheets are divided into three themes: map work, physical Geography, and human Geography.

“Map work includes symbols and keys, grid references, and compass work whilst physical Geography focuses on water and waste, biodiversity and conservation, and weather and climate issues. The human Geography theme has a focus on population, rural and urban development, migration, food and farming, and transport and trade,” she said.

Each worksheet has a fact sheet section which teaches theory on the specific topic (linked to the curriculum), an activity section (all resources needed for these activities are provided in the box), and a ‘take it home’ section for further learning and practice at home.

The Green Box is a recycled plastic crate that comprises worksheets, training materials, visual aids, and resources for teaching, learning, and active engagement in Geography classes.

Also included in the box are a felt story board and characters (that link with the worksheet activities), the ‘Climate Change memory game’ (which enhances learner’s memory capabilities and teaches various climate change facts) and the ‘Sustainable Development puzzle game’ (which teaches about the social, biophysical, economic, and political elements of Sustainable Development, and how they overlap).

“All items in the box are locally sourced, robust, and without copyright,” said Dr Massey.

The project is focusing on 10 under-resourced schools in the Bloemfontein area. Each school has received three boxes (one for each grade of the Intermediate Phase).

Dr Massey said: “This box is to be shared among the teachers. The Green Boxes were distributed at a training and information workshop held at three central schools in the various districts. These workshops introduced the teachers to the contents of their box, and provided basic training on the worksheets and the activities provided.”

“The schools will be joined up with ‘Box Buddies’ at more resourced schools in Bloemfontein. These buddy schools will assist in support and in replenishing the box’s stationery, etc. when needed.”

“Monitoring and evaluation will take place for six months after the boxes have been distributed. This will ensure support to, and the sustainability of, the project.” The Green Box project was made possible through a grant from the Society of South African Geographers (SSAG).

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