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29 March 2021 | Story Prof Theo Neethling | Photo Johan Roux
Prof Theo Neethling is from the Department of Political Studies and Governance at the University of the Free State
The Cabo Delgado province in the northernmost part of the long Mozambican seaboard is now home to Africa’s three largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects; these projects have attracted many of the world’s major multinational energy companies, accompanied by massive LNG investments. There can be little doubt that the discovery of rich LNG reserves is a potential game changer for Mozambique’s economy and the development agenda of the country. It is potentially an opportunity for the rapid advancement of a country that currently ranks close to the bottom of the United Nation’s Human Development Index. World Bank data annually ranks Mozambique as among the poorest countries in the world.

Mozambique ‘has hit the jackpot’

Since 2011, rich LNG reserves have been discovered off the coast of Cabo Delgado in the Rovuma Basin. With the discovery of major offshore gas fields, many observers have been prompted to suggest that Mozambique, one of the poorest countries in the world, ‘has hit the jackpot’ – and recently, it has been claimed that by the mid-2020s, Mozambique could become one of the top ten LNG producers globally. Together, the gas projects are estimated to be worth $60 billion, and this could obviously revolutionise Mozambique’s economy of $15 billion.

However, despite the billions in investments by major multinational energy companies since 2012, the people of Cabo Delgado are yet to see the material benefits from these projects. One of the biggest risks for international investors in the LNG industry is the many unknowns associated with the threat posed by the militant Islamic movement, Ansar al-Sunna, which has especially been active in the Cabo Delgado province since 2017. Whereas Ansar al-Sunna, locally known as Al-Shabaab, initially advocated the ‘purification’ of Islam in Mozambique by preaching a moving away from the practices of the mystical traditions of Muslim Sufis – who are the majority of Muslims in Mozambique – and projecting Sufis as degenerate, the movement eventually made it clear that its goal was to impose Sharia law (Islamic law) in Cabo Delgado.

Since independence in 1994, the central government of Maputo has lacked a monopoly over the means of violence in its territory and its long coastline. In this context, Renamo regularly clashed with the central government in a 16-year civil war that claimed more than a million lives. Fast forward to the future – Ansar al-Sunna with its ISIS links now poses the main security threat to the Mozambican government and its armed forces.

The situation has gone from bad to worse

The escalation of violence and armed conflict since early 2020 has raised some pressing questions over the future of LNG investments, and even put the future of the LNG industry at high risk. Obviously, the foreign companies with their substantial investments feel threatened, especially at the current stage where final investment decisions have to be taken.

In recent months, the situation in Cabo Delgado has gone from bad to worse. In November 2020, dozens of people were reportedly beheaded by Islamic militants in northern Mozambique. Now the beheadings and bloodshed have spread to the town of Palma; taking the bloodshed to another level. This is not good news for the LNG industry in Mozambique, as Palma is supposed to become the manufacturing hub where hundreds of skilled workers will be located.

Amid the development of an increasingly alarming human rights situation towards the end of last year, including the killing of civilians by insurgents, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, has appealed for urgent measures to protect civilians in what she described as a “desperate” situation and one of “grave human rights abuses”. She also stated that more than 350 000 people have been displaced since 2018.

In conclusion, there is little doubt that Islamist insurgents have managed to increase the scale of their activities in Cabo Delgado, and that the lack of governance and a proper security response by both the Mozambican government and Southern African leaders make this a case of high political risk, which can potentially jeopardise the successful unlocking of the country’s resource wealth. Until now, the main LNG installations and sites have not been targeted or directly affected, but the security risks to these vast investments – and Mozambique’s development potential – are certainly on the increase and posing a threat to the LNG industry.

Opinion article by Prof Theo Neethling, Department of Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State 

 


News Archive

“Breakthroughs depend on people believing in their own ideas”
2015-07-23


TED is a renowned international non-profit organisation dedicated to disseminating “ideas worth spreading” in the form compelling talks lasting up to 18 minutes.

Lerothodi Molete’s vision is to witness the youth of Bloemfontein emerge at the forefront of technological, scientific, and entrepreneurial innovations in both South Africa and the global arena.

 

Molete and Bonginkosi Leeuw are the organisers of TEDxUFS. Their duty is centered on inspiring people to believe in, and express, their ideas. These University of the Free State students have taken it upon themselves to inspire the youth to “push the boundaries of society.”

 

The second TEDxUFS event to be hosted by the university presents a unique opportunity for students, staff members, and the general public to mingle with influential speakers from across various disciplines.

 

Details of the event:

 

Date: Saturday 1 August 2015

Time: 08:00- 18:00

Venue: Albert Wessels Auditorium, Bloemfontein Campus

 

The keynote speakers include: Mmusi Maimane (Federal Leader: Democratic Alliance), Gareth Cliff (Radio personality: Cliff Central), Pieter Geldenhuys (Futurist), Brian Kally (Director: Arrow Logistics), Jonathan Jansen (Vice-Chancellor and Rector: UFS), Ricardo Peach (Director: Vrystaat Arts Festival, Pamela Nomvete (Former actor and writer), Gil Oved (Founder: Creative Counsel), Pepe Marais (CEO: Joe Public), Angelo Mockie (Senior Officer: Student Affairs and musician), Philippa Tumubweinee (Senior Lecturer in Architecture: UFS), and Melody Mentz (Psychology Senior Professor: UFS).

 

The reason behind the #AskWhy theme

 

"Why is a small word but it’s a quick, broad, sharp and abrupt one,” explains Leeuw. “It is the chosen word of the non-conformist, the defiant, and the visionary. It is a confrontational word. It challenges what is thought to be impossible.”

 

The ability to interrogate reality is what society and economies are built on. The absence of the fear to question encourages the capacity to progress.

 

Motivating young people to follow their dreams is the reason why the TEDxUFS team is persistent in their endeavours. Molete believes that, in order to change anything, people need to ask why.

 

Background of the innovation powerhouse called TED(x)

 

TED is a renowned international non-profit organisation dedicated to disseminating “ideas worth spreading” in the form compelling talks lasting up to 18 minutes.

 

In 1984, it was introduced as a conference exploring Technology, Entertainment, and Design. Three decades later, TED covers a wide variety of topics of global significance, reflecting the contemporary era in more than 100 languages.

 

TEDx events are under the TED umbrella. These events are organised independently, and create a platform for deliberating on local matters. The programme assists communities, organisations, and individuals to stimulate critical dialogue.

 

On 25 July 2014, the UFS hosted its inaugural TEDxUFS conference at the Odeion theatre on the Bloemfontein Campus, where eleven speakers addressed an audience of 150 people on interdisciplinary topics ranging from economics to entrepreneurship, technology, art, design, and theology.

 

This year, 200 seats will be available for innovative revolutionary individuals in search of inspiration.

 

Tickets are available at 0619284253 / 079 381 4126. Prices: R80 (Student/scholars) and R350 (Public/staff)

 

LINKS:

Lerothodi Molete- http://whoswho.co.za/lerothodi-molete-742022

Bonginkosi Leeuw- https://www.ted.com/tedx/events/10499

TEDxUFS- http://kovsielife.ufs.ac.za/templates/archive.aspx?news=276

Mmusi Maimane- http://whoswho.co.za/mmusi-maimane-44612

Garett Cliff- http://www.garethcliff.com/

Pieter Geldenhuys- http://pietergeldenhuys.com/

Brian Kally- https://za.linkedin.com/pub/brian-kally/4b/888/959

Jonathan Jansen- http://www.ufs.ac.za/adhoc-pages/rectorate/prof-(jd)-jonathan-jansen

Ricardo Peach- http://ricardopeach.com/

Pamela Nomvete- http://whoswho.co.za/pamela-nomvete-4789

Gil Ovid- https://za.linkedin.com/pub/gil-oved/3/910/892

Pepe Marais- http://joepublic.co.za/people

Angelo Mockie- https://za.linkedin.com/pub/angelo-mockie/27/56/302

PhilippaTumubweinee- http://natagri.ufs.ac.za/templates/staffmember.aspx?DCode=101&pid=zyNJm7KI%2b1k%3d

Melody Mentz- https://za.linkedin.com/in/melodymentz

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