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29 March 2021 | Story Prof Theo Neethling | Photo Johan Roux
Prof Theo Neethling is from the Department of Political Studies and Governance at the University of the Free State
The Cabo Delgado province in the northernmost part of the long Mozambican seaboard is now home to Africa’s three largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects; these projects have attracted many of the world’s major multinational energy companies, accompanied by massive LNG investments. There can be little doubt that the discovery of rich LNG reserves is a potential game changer for Mozambique’s economy and the development agenda of the country. It is potentially an opportunity for the rapid advancement of a country that currently ranks close to the bottom of the United Nation’s Human Development Index. World Bank data annually ranks Mozambique as among the poorest countries in the world.

Mozambique ‘has hit the jackpot’

Since 2011, rich LNG reserves have been discovered off the coast of Cabo Delgado in the Rovuma Basin. With the discovery of major offshore gas fields, many observers have been prompted to suggest that Mozambique, one of the poorest countries in the world, ‘has hit the jackpot’ – and recently, it has been claimed that by the mid-2020s, Mozambique could become one of the top ten LNG producers globally. Together, the gas projects are estimated to be worth $60 billion, and this could obviously revolutionise Mozambique’s economy of $15 billion.

However, despite the billions in investments by major multinational energy companies since 2012, the people of Cabo Delgado are yet to see the material benefits from these projects. One of the biggest risks for international investors in the LNG industry is the many unknowns associated with the threat posed by the militant Islamic movement, Ansar al-Sunna, which has especially been active in the Cabo Delgado province since 2017. Whereas Ansar al-Sunna, locally known as Al-Shabaab, initially advocated the ‘purification’ of Islam in Mozambique by preaching a moving away from the practices of the mystical traditions of Muslim Sufis – who are the majority of Muslims in Mozambique – and projecting Sufis as degenerate, the movement eventually made it clear that its goal was to impose Sharia law (Islamic law) in Cabo Delgado.

Since independence in 1994, the central government of Maputo has lacked a monopoly over the means of violence in its territory and its long coastline. In this context, Renamo regularly clashed with the central government in a 16-year civil war that claimed more than a million lives. Fast forward to the future – Ansar al-Sunna with its ISIS links now poses the main security threat to the Mozambican government and its armed forces.

The situation has gone from bad to worse

The escalation of violence and armed conflict since early 2020 has raised some pressing questions over the future of LNG investments, and even put the future of the LNG industry at high risk. Obviously, the foreign companies with their substantial investments feel threatened, especially at the current stage where final investment decisions have to be taken.

In recent months, the situation in Cabo Delgado has gone from bad to worse. In November 2020, dozens of people were reportedly beheaded by Islamic militants in northern Mozambique. Now the beheadings and bloodshed have spread to the town of Palma; taking the bloodshed to another level. This is not good news for the LNG industry in Mozambique, as Palma is supposed to become the manufacturing hub where hundreds of skilled workers will be located.

Amid the development of an increasingly alarming human rights situation towards the end of last year, including the killing of civilians by insurgents, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, has appealed for urgent measures to protect civilians in what she described as a “desperate” situation and one of “grave human rights abuses”. She also stated that more than 350 000 people have been displaced since 2018.

In conclusion, there is little doubt that Islamist insurgents have managed to increase the scale of their activities in Cabo Delgado, and that the lack of governance and a proper security response by both the Mozambican government and Southern African leaders make this a case of high political risk, which can potentially jeopardise the successful unlocking of the country’s resource wealth. Until now, the main LNG installations and sites have not been targeted or directly affected, but the security risks to these vast investments – and Mozambique’s development potential – are certainly on the increase and posing a threat to the LNG industry.

Opinion article by Prof Theo Neethling, Department of Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State 

 


News Archive

Kovsie Tennis team defends proud USSA record in Cape Town
2015-12-01


In 2014, Kovsies won gold at the USSA Tennis Tournament for the eighth consecutive time. Six players from last year's 12-man squad are in 2015 in Cape Town again available. Photo: Johan Roux

Duke Munro already has six gold medals from the USSA Tennis Tournament in his cupboard, and the Kovsie Tennis team would wish to bid him farewell in a fitting manner during what will probably be his last tournament in Cape Town.

This year's tournament, taking place from 30 November to 4 December 2015, will probably be Munro's last, since he is completing his Master's degree in Quantity Surveying at the University of the Free State (UFS).

He has competed in the USSA Tournament since 2009, and would like to help his team defend its proud record.

UFS aim for ninth consecutive title

Kovsies have won gold at the USSA Tournament for the last eight years. They are the only team who have been able to win the tournament since the combined format was adopted in 2010. In 2007 and 2008, their Women's team won the tournament, and in 2009, their Men's team.

Kovsies will play in group matches against the Universities of Venda and Wits on 30 November 2015, against the University of Cape Town's (UCT's) second team on 1 December 2015, and against UCT's first team on 2 December 2015. The cross and knockout matches will be played on 3 and 4 December 2015.

Other sporting codes

The Sevens Rugby team from the UFS will compete in the USSA Tournament in George on 30 November and 1 December 2015.

For the past two years, the team has won bronze, and will be playing three league matches on 30 November 2015 against the North-West University's Vaal Campus, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University's Port Elizabeth Campus, and the Vaal University of Technology.

Kovsies are the current Varsity Sevens Champions after winning the title in Cape Town in April 2015.

Ten Kovsie swimmers took part in the USSA Tournament in Johannesburg from 28 November to 30 November 2015. Last year, Kovsies came third, but unfortunately some of their leading swimmers were unable to take part this year.

The Kovsie Table tennis team will participate in the USSA Tournament in Kimberley from 30 November to 4 December 2015.

Most of the USSA Tournaments in the other sporting codes were either postponed or cancelled because of the recent nationwide student protests. As a result of the protests, exams were written later, and tournaments would have taken place during the holidays.

Only the tennis, table tennis, Sevens rugby, swimming, and cricket B Division in East London will continue.

The USSA Soccer Tournament, to take place at the UFS and the Central University of Technology in Bloemfontein, was postponed until March 2016.

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