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29 March 2021 | Story Prof Theo Neethling | Photo Johan Roux
Prof Theo Neethling is from the Department of Political Studies and Governance at the University of the Free State
The Cabo Delgado province in the northernmost part of the long Mozambican seaboard is now home to Africa’s three largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects; these projects have attracted many of the world’s major multinational energy companies, accompanied by massive LNG investments. There can be little doubt that the discovery of rich LNG reserves is a potential game changer for Mozambique’s economy and the development agenda of the country. It is potentially an opportunity for the rapid advancement of a country that currently ranks close to the bottom of the United Nation’s Human Development Index. World Bank data annually ranks Mozambique as among the poorest countries in the world.

Mozambique ‘has hit the jackpot’

Since 2011, rich LNG reserves have been discovered off the coast of Cabo Delgado in the Rovuma Basin. With the discovery of major offshore gas fields, many observers have been prompted to suggest that Mozambique, one of the poorest countries in the world, ‘has hit the jackpot’ – and recently, it has been claimed that by the mid-2020s, Mozambique could become one of the top ten LNG producers globally. Together, the gas projects are estimated to be worth $60 billion, and this could obviously revolutionise Mozambique’s economy of $15 billion.

However, despite the billions in investments by major multinational energy companies since 2012, the people of Cabo Delgado are yet to see the material benefits from these projects. One of the biggest risks for international investors in the LNG industry is the many unknowns associated with the threat posed by the militant Islamic movement, Ansar al-Sunna, which has especially been active in the Cabo Delgado province since 2017. Whereas Ansar al-Sunna, locally known as Al-Shabaab, initially advocated the ‘purification’ of Islam in Mozambique by preaching a moving away from the practices of the mystical traditions of Muslim Sufis – who are the majority of Muslims in Mozambique – and projecting Sufis as degenerate, the movement eventually made it clear that its goal was to impose Sharia law (Islamic law) in Cabo Delgado.

Since independence in 1994, the central government of Maputo has lacked a monopoly over the means of violence in its territory and its long coastline. In this context, Renamo regularly clashed with the central government in a 16-year civil war that claimed more than a million lives. Fast forward to the future – Ansar al-Sunna with its ISIS links now poses the main security threat to the Mozambican government and its armed forces.

The situation has gone from bad to worse

The escalation of violence and armed conflict since early 2020 has raised some pressing questions over the future of LNG investments, and even put the future of the LNG industry at high risk. Obviously, the foreign companies with their substantial investments feel threatened, especially at the current stage where final investment decisions have to be taken.

In recent months, the situation in Cabo Delgado has gone from bad to worse. In November 2020, dozens of people were reportedly beheaded by Islamic militants in northern Mozambique. Now the beheadings and bloodshed have spread to the town of Palma; taking the bloodshed to another level. This is not good news for the LNG industry in Mozambique, as Palma is supposed to become the manufacturing hub where hundreds of skilled workers will be located.

Amid the development of an increasingly alarming human rights situation towards the end of last year, including the killing of civilians by insurgents, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, has appealed for urgent measures to protect civilians in what she described as a “desperate” situation and one of “grave human rights abuses”. She also stated that more than 350 000 people have been displaced since 2018.

In conclusion, there is little doubt that Islamist insurgents have managed to increase the scale of their activities in Cabo Delgado, and that the lack of governance and a proper security response by both the Mozambican government and Southern African leaders make this a case of high political risk, which can potentially jeopardise the successful unlocking of the country’s resource wealth. Until now, the main LNG installations and sites have not been targeted or directly affected, but the security risks to these vast investments – and Mozambique’s development potential – are certainly on the increase and posing a threat to the LNG industry.

Opinion article by Prof Theo Neethling, Department of Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State 

 


News Archive

Culture contributes to success of UFS rugby teams
2015-12-15

The Sevens team of the University of the Free State followed in the footsteps of the Shimlas when the team was crowned national champion. The Kovsies Sevens team beat Tukkies April in the final of the Varsity Sevens tournament. Photo: Supplied. 

The University of the Free State (UFS) Rugby Club has succeeded once again in creating a culture of values.

Marius van Rensburg, Chairman of the UFS Rugby Club, believes this was one of the reasons why Kovsies had so many rugby successes this year.

The UFS knows that money, which is more abundant at bigger universities, won't change the club into a rugby force, but "there is something special here," he said.

Van Rensburg added that the success of Shimlas, who won the Varsity Cup for the first time, also helped to build a winning culture.

Seven finals

Seven of the UFS Rugby Club's teams played in finals during 2015.

Shimlas beat the Pukke in the Varsity Cup final at Shimla Park on the Bloemfontein Campus.

The Kovsie Young Guns (against Tukkies) and Vishuis (Mopanie from Tukkies) got stuck in Bloemfontein in Varsity Cup finals.

The Shimlas won Section B of the USSA tournament in Johannesburg (against Madibaz in the final).

A strong Irawa rugby team beat Shimlas in the City Cup.

The Kovsie Sevens team was crowned as the Varsity Champions in Cape Town after beating Tukkies in the final. The team was beaten by Maties in the final of the USSA Sevens tournament in George.

Shimlas lays foundation

According to Van Rensburg, the Varsity Cup triumph by Shimlas laid a good foundation.

“After what happened in the Varsity Cup, the winning culture kind of washed over the other teams,” he said.

He also thinks the 2015 successes didn't happen overnight, but that the club managed to bring back good values. He feels that Franco Smith, the former Shimlas coach who is the Cheetahs’ current coach, also played an important part.

Greater pressure in 2016

In 2016, the UFS's rugby teams will have a greater target on their backs.

Van Rensburg agrees that there will be greater pressure, but the structures are in place.

He feels that Varsity Cup success goes together with a touch of luck, of which Shimlas had some this year.

“Looking at the draw, Shimlas will play their first two matches away against Ikeys and Tukkies. Therefore, after two matches, one might have no league points, and that would place the team under immediate pressure.”

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