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29 March 2021 | Story Prof Theo Neethling | Photo Johan Roux
Prof Theo Neethling is from the Department of Political Studies and Governance at the University of the Free State
The Cabo Delgado province in the northernmost part of the long Mozambican seaboard is now home to Africa’s three largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects; these projects have attracted many of the world’s major multinational energy companies, accompanied by massive LNG investments. There can be little doubt that the discovery of rich LNG reserves is a potential game changer for Mozambique’s economy and the development agenda of the country. It is potentially an opportunity for the rapid advancement of a country that currently ranks close to the bottom of the United Nation’s Human Development Index. World Bank data annually ranks Mozambique as among the poorest countries in the world.

Mozambique ‘has hit the jackpot’

Since 2011, rich LNG reserves have been discovered off the coast of Cabo Delgado in the Rovuma Basin. With the discovery of major offshore gas fields, many observers have been prompted to suggest that Mozambique, one of the poorest countries in the world, ‘has hit the jackpot’ – and recently, it has been claimed that by the mid-2020s, Mozambique could become one of the top ten LNG producers globally. Together, the gas projects are estimated to be worth $60 billion, and this could obviously revolutionise Mozambique’s economy of $15 billion.

However, despite the billions in investments by major multinational energy companies since 2012, the people of Cabo Delgado are yet to see the material benefits from these projects. One of the biggest risks for international investors in the LNG industry is the many unknowns associated with the threat posed by the militant Islamic movement, Ansar al-Sunna, which has especially been active in the Cabo Delgado province since 2017. Whereas Ansar al-Sunna, locally known as Al-Shabaab, initially advocated the ‘purification’ of Islam in Mozambique by preaching a moving away from the practices of the mystical traditions of Muslim Sufis – who are the majority of Muslims in Mozambique – and projecting Sufis as degenerate, the movement eventually made it clear that its goal was to impose Sharia law (Islamic law) in Cabo Delgado.

Since independence in 1994, the central government of Maputo has lacked a monopoly over the means of violence in its territory and its long coastline. In this context, Renamo regularly clashed with the central government in a 16-year civil war that claimed more than a million lives. Fast forward to the future – Ansar al-Sunna with its ISIS links now poses the main security threat to the Mozambican government and its armed forces.

The situation has gone from bad to worse

The escalation of violence and armed conflict since early 2020 has raised some pressing questions over the future of LNG investments, and even put the future of the LNG industry at high risk. Obviously, the foreign companies with their substantial investments feel threatened, especially at the current stage where final investment decisions have to be taken.

In recent months, the situation in Cabo Delgado has gone from bad to worse. In November 2020, dozens of people were reportedly beheaded by Islamic militants in northern Mozambique. Now the beheadings and bloodshed have spread to the town of Palma; taking the bloodshed to another level. This is not good news for the LNG industry in Mozambique, as Palma is supposed to become the manufacturing hub where hundreds of skilled workers will be located.

Amid the development of an increasingly alarming human rights situation towards the end of last year, including the killing of civilians by insurgents, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, has appealed for urgent measures to protect civilians in what she described as a “desperate” situation and one of “grave human rights abuses”. She also stated that more than 350 000 people have been displaced since 2018.

In conclusion, there is little doubt that Islamist insurgents have managed to increase the scale of their activities in Cabo Delgado, and that the lack of governance and a proper security response by both the Mozambican government and Southern African leaders make this a case of high political risk, which can potentially jeopardise the successful unlocking of the country’s resource wealth. Until now, the main LNG installations and sites have not been targeted or directly affected, but the security risks to these vast investments – and Mozambique’s development potential – are certainly on the increase and posing a threat to the LNG industry.

Opinion article by Prof Theo Neethling, Department of Political Studies and Governance, University of the Free State 

 


News Archive

UFS Centenary 2004 / 2005 October (centenary) fest Activities
2004-10-08

Friday, 08 October 2004
17:00 – 24:00
Callie Human Centre, UFS
Macufe Rock Concert
With: Rooibaardt, Karen Zoid, The Narrow, F****polisiekar, Stuurbaard Bakkebaard (from the Netherlands), DJ Bob, Ready D, Neva Me.
Cost : R50-00
Bookings : Pacofs (051-447 7772)

Sunday, 10 October 2004
16:00 – 18:00
Callie Human Centre, UFS
Macufe Three Tenors Concert
With: Phillip Kotze, Chris Coetzer and Du Preez Stolz, as well as Angela Kerrison. Free State Symphony Orchestra conducted by Chris Dowdeswell.
Cost :R60-00 (adults), R40-00 (children, scholars, students and pensioners)
Bookings : Pacofs (051-447 7772)

Tuesday, 12 October 2004
11:00 – 15:00
Centenary Complex, UFS
Inauguration of Centenary Complex
Open day with a variety of musical recitals in different rooms
Cost : Free
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

15:00 – 17:00
Parking area next to the Centenary Complex, UFS
Kovsie Mosaic Day
Collage of the Century, Dance to the beat, Cultural Cartoon,
Who’s line is it anyway?
Cost : Free
Enquiries : Louis Botha (051-401 2819) or
AC Geldenhuys (084 585 3338)

Wednesday, 13 October 2004
19:00
Centenary Complex, UFS
Première of documentary film : The Life and Legacy of  King Moshoeshoe
Note : By invitation only
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

Thursday, 14 October 2004
18:45 – 21:00
Red Square (in front of Main Building), UFS
Centenary Honorary Doctorate Degree Graduation Ceremony
Conferred on: Me. Antjie Krog, Prof. Jakes Gerwel, Mr. Karel Schoeman, Dr. Frederick van Zyl Slabbert, Prof. Saleem Badat, Dr. Khotso Mokhele, Prof. Robert Bringle, Prof. Leo Quayle, Prof. Jack de Wet, Prof. Kerneels Nel (posthumously), Prof. Boelie Wessels and Prof. Jaap Steyn .
Cost : Free. Please RSVP if you would like to attend.
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

Friday, 15 October 2004
18:30
Centenary Complex, UFS
Alumni Dinner and Centenary Award Ceremony
Approximately 140 centenary medals will be awarded in acknowledgement of exceptional contributions to the development of the University. The award ceremony is followed by the Alumni dinner in the Callie Human Centre.
Cost : R100-00/person
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

15:00 (to 12:00, Saturday, 16 October 2004),
UFS campus
Reunion : Momentum Adventure and Expedition Association
Including : Setting up of the Kovsie Momentum base camp, champagne breakfast and abseiling.
Cost : R50-00/person for breakfast
Enquiries : Gerrit van der Merwe (072 4317 153) or
Niel Fraser (082 772 5642)
Website : www.uovs.ac.za/associations/momentum_hrcc.

19:00 (to 11:00 Sunday, 17 October 2004)
Reunion : Cantare Revue Group
Including : Formal dinner, budget show, bring and braai, church service.
Cost : R100-00/person for the dinner
Enquiries : Louis Botha (051-401 2819)

19:00 (to 24:00 Saturday, 16 October 2004
Reunion : House NJ van der Merwe
Including : Senior Student’s Association and concerts
Cost : R5-00/person
Enquiries : Tutu Ntlathi (051-401 4122 / 072 865 2227)

Saturday, 16 October 2004
09:00 – 10:00
Committee Room 120, Faculty of Theology
Founding of Theology Alumni Association
Enquiries: Henna Nel (051-401 2669)

10:00 – 12:00
Parking area, CR Swart Building, UFS
Alumni Campus Tour
Including : Visits to the new physical developments on campus
Cost : Free
Enquiries : Jeanette Jansen (051-401 3594)

10:00 – 12:00
Sonnedou gazellie (next to NJ van der Merwe Residence), UFS
Reunion : Ladies’ Tea
Visit our new gazellie and find out what Sonnedou is up to these days.
Cost : R25-00/person
Enquiries : Anne-Marie Delport (072 109 0507)

12:00 – 16:00
JBM Hertzog Residence (garden in front of Senior Student’s Association), UFS
Reunion : Braai
Cost : Approximately R20-00/person
Enquiries : Hattingh Bornman (084 240 5226)

12:00 Vergeet-my-nie Residence, UFS
Reunion : Braai
Bring and braai. We supply the facilities. Bring old photographs and stories. Enjoy Aunt Juls’ last visit.
Cost : Free
Enquiries : Mari Jordaan (051-444 2832/072 392 4444)

12:00 HF Verwoerd Residence Senior Student’s Association, UFS
Reunion : Spit roast
Cost : R60-00/person
Enquiries : Jan-Chris Landman (051-401 3613 / 082 664 6062)

18:30 Floreat Hall, Bloemfontein Civic Centre (Braam Fisher Building)
Irawa 60 Reunion
For all former editors, former and current main editorial staff and coworkers
Cost : R100-00/person
Enquiries : Sanri van Wyk (072 333 1011)
Elzette Boucher (072 180 6265)

19:00 – 24:00 Red Square (in front of Main Building), UFS
Informal Alumni Reunion
Spit roast and stories in a marquee
Cost : R60-00/person
Enquiries : Elize Rall (051-401 3382)

Sunday, 17 October 2004
10:00 – 11:00
Kovsie Church
Church Service

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