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19 December 2018 | Story Leonie Bolleurs | Photo Leonie Bolleurs
Water management reseachers
Marinda Avenant, Dirk Jungman and Niels Schütze are working on a project proposal for a decision support system that will assist local authorities with sustainable water resources management. Both Dirk and Niels are from the Technical University Dresden in Germany.

Climate change has a strong effect on the water cycle and is likely to lead to a multitude of hazardous weather events such as droughts, heavy rainfall and floods in Southern Africa.

The Technical University of Dresden, in Germany, in collaboration with the Centre for Environmental Management at the University of the Free State (UFS), earlier this year received seed funding to develop a project proposal for a study on the risks of climate change.

At a recent workshop, universities (including the Central University of Technology, University of KwaZulu-Natal, University of Pretoria, Cape Peninsula University of Technology and the Namibia University of Science and Technology), Weather SA and the Global Water Partnership of Southern Africa) as well as companies from the public and private sectors and universities in Germany (Technical University Dresden, United Nations University Flores, Büro für Angewandte Hydrologie, and WISUTEC Chemnitz), collaborated to discuss the project proposal.

The proposal to obtain funding for the study will be submitted in May 2019.

 

Managing water resources

Once funding is obtained, the combined team will study a series of sites in the upper (Qwaqwa), middle (Free State Goldfields) and lower Vaal catchment areas. The aim of this three-year project is to prepare climatic, hydrological and ecological models as a basis for the development of a decision support system (DSS). This simple-to-use DSS is intended to assist local authorities with sustainable water resources management, as well as to address the risks associated with future climate change in their regions.

The study is titled: Threats of droughts and floods: investigating resilience to the multiple risks of climate change in Southern Africa and the study area was chosen for its suitability in terms of non-perenniality of rivers, residual impacts of mining, climate change, urbanisation, the poor quality of water, major modification of natural ecosystems, as well as poverty and joblessness.

According to Marinda Avenant, lecturer in the Centre for Environmental Management, increasing hazards can result in additional ecological, social and economic impacts and risks such as asset damage, yield reduction and decrease of livelihoods for the region. “We intend to produce a tool to support decision-making and risk-management by means of easily understandable guidelines to consider threats of droughts and floods under climate-change conditions of mining-contaminated, non-perennial river systems,” said Avenant.

 

Reliable forecasts

 

A web-based data platform to provide reliable forecasts of disaster risk and effective warnings of multiple hazardous weather events will also be developed to support resilient management strategies and to trigger risk reduction behaviour.

News Archive

Fracking in the Karoo has advantages and disadvantages
2012-05-25

 

Dr Danie Vermeulen
Photo: Leatitia Pienaar
25 May 2012

Fracking for shale gas in the Karoo was laid bare during a public lecture by Dr Danie Vermeulen, Director of the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS). He shared facts, figures and research with his audience. No “yes” or “no” vote was cast. The audience was left to decide for itself.

The exploitation of shale gas in the pristine Karoo has probably been one of the most debated issues in South Africa since 2011.
 
Dr Vermeulen’s lecture, “The shale gas story in the Karoo: both sides of the coin”, was the first in a series presented by the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Science under the theme “Sustainability”. Dr Vermeulen is a trained geo-hydrologist and geologist. He has been involved in fracking in South Africa since the debate started. He went on a study tour to the USA in 2011 to learn more about fracking and he visited the USA to further his investigation in May 2012.
 
Some of the information he shared, includes:

- It is estimated that South Africa has the fifth-largest shale-gas reserves in the world, following on China, the USA, Argentina and Mexico.
- Flow-back water is stored in sealed tanks and not in flow-back dams.
- Fracturing will not contaminate the water in an area, as the drilling of the wells will go far deeper than the groundwater aquifers. Every well has four steel casings – one within the other – with the gaps between them sealed with cement.
- More than a million hydraulic fracturing simulations took place in the USA without compromising fresh groundwater. The surface activities can cause problems because that is where man-made and managerial operations could cause pollution.
- Water use for shale-gas exploration is lower than for other kinds of energy, but the fact that the Karoo is an arid region makes the use of groundwater a sensitive issue. Dr Vermeulen highlighted this aspect as his major concern regarding shale-gas exploration.
- The cost to develop is a quarter of the cost for an oil well in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Dolerite intrusions in the Karoo are an unresearched concern. Dolerite is unique to the South African situation. Dolerite intrusion temperatures exceed 900 °C.

He also addressed the shale-gas footprint, well decommissioning and site reclamation, radio activity in the shale and the low possibility of seismic events.
 
Dr Vermeulen said South Africa is a net importer of energy. About 90% of its power supply is coal-based. For continued economic growth, South Africa needs a stable energy supply. It is also forecast that energy demand in South Africa is growing faster than the average global demand.
 
Unknowns to be addressed in research and exploration are the gas reserves and gas needs of South Africa. Do we have enough water? What will be the visual and social impact? Who must do the exploration?
 
“Only exploration will give us these answers,” Dr Vermeulen said.

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