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04 October 2023 | Story Prof Robert Bragg | Photo Supplied
Prof Robert Bragg
Prof Robert Bragg is from the Veterinary Biotechnology in the Department of Microbiology and Biochemistry, University of the Free State (UFS).

Opinion article by Prof Robert Bragg, Veterinary Biotechnology in the Department of Microbiology and Biochemistry, University of the Free State.


The poultry sector in South Africa is currently undergoing serious challenges. 

The ongoing load shedding and power disruptions have put tremendous pressure and additional costs on the industry, which makes producing poultry products extremely expensive. One company (Astral Foods) has spent an additional R919 million as a result of load shedding alone. This has obviously had a significant impact on the profitability and sustainability of the company.

Now to make matters worse – the local poultry industry has been hit with a major avian influenza epidemic.

Avian Influenza (AI) is a viral disease of birds, including poultry. The term “AI” is frequently in the news these days and often refers to artificial intelligence. In this article, the term AI refers to Avian Influenza. This is a devastating disease of poultry and can wipe out a flock in just a few days. AI is the most widely-studied disease of poultry as it has been causing major problems in poultry industries around the world for many years.

Reluctance to vaccinate 

In the past (five to 10 years ago) Avian influenza (AI), was pretty much the only serious poultry disease which South Africa did not have. There have been cases of what is called low pathogenic Avian Influenza in ostriches for some time. However, the commercial poultry industry was, for a long time, free of the highly pathogenic strain of the virus. This is now, unfortunately, no longer the case.

In the past, Veterinary Services was reluctant to allow vaccination of poultry in South Africa against AI. Most of the major international vaccine manufacturers have highly effective vaccines against AI, which are widely used in many countries where AI has become well-established. There were two reasons for this reluctance to allow vaccination against AI. Firstly, there is a well-organised and -run surveillance system in place for AI in South Africa. The basis of this monitoring programme is routinely looking for antibodies against AI in commercial poultry. This surveillance system is only possible if the birds are not vaccinated. The control policy in the past was a “stamping-out” policy. In other words, when AI is detected in a flock, the flock is destroyed. Secondly, AI has not been a major problem in South Africa in the past and the previous outbreaks were successfully controlled with the stamping-out policy which was in place. Previous AI outbreaks were successfully controlled. 

All this has now changed and AI is running rampant. The consequences of this will be severe.

The commercial poultry industry is based on two different types of birds – the layers and the broilers. The layers, as the name suggests, are the birds which lay eggs for human consumption. The broiler birds are the meat birds. In order to maintain the supply of both meat and eggs, there is a complex system of breeder birds, grandparents and great grandparents. These breeder birds are genetic line birds and play a critical role in keeping the market supplied with poultry products. If (and when) these breeder birds contract AI, they will die (either from the virus infection or from the control efforts). When this happens, the constant supply of hatching eggs needed to keep the layer and broiler farmers supplied with chickens to meet the constant demand for poultry products will be gone. In other words, there will be a major shortage of poultry. As poultry is the most affordable source of protein, this will cause major food shortages and additional hunger problems.

Antibodies vs viruses 

There are efforts to now import vaccines against AI. This will assist with the control of the disease in the long term, but will, unfortunately, not do much to control the current problem in the short term. The reason for this is that it takes time for vaccinated birds to develop antibodies against the virus. As soon as the birds are vaccinated, their immune system will start to make antibodies. Only when there are enough antibodies, will the birds be protected. It can take up to two weeks to get sufficient antibodies. Even then, if there is too much virus in the field, the immune response of the birds can still be overwhelmed. In simple terms, if the bird has a number of antibodies (let’s use an understandable number to explain) of 10 antibodies and there are nine viruses, the antibodies win and the birds are safe. If there are 10 antibodies, but 11 viruses – the viruses win and the birds die. Obviously, these numbers are not the real numbers and are just used as an explanation. In the major Newcastle disease (NCD) outbreak in the late 1990s, the birds had very high levels of antibodies against NCD and should have been protected. However, there was so much circulating virus that the immune system of the birds were overwhelmed and this outbreak was very difficult to control.

The only short-term option for control of AI in the current situation is good biosecurity. It is essential that good biosecurity is in place on the poultry farms. Only high-quality, registered disinfectants must be used for the biosecurity efforts. The ideal product would be one which is non-toxic to the birds and can be used to continually reduce the levels of viruses in the flocks. Until the vaccination programme can take effect, the only control option is a full continual disinfection programme which would include using the disinfectant in the drinking water, provided that the product is registered for this application and also to regularly spray the birds – again only if the product is registered for this application. The registration of a product ensures that the label claims can be substantiated and there is valid scientific evidence to support the claims made by the producers of the product. 

The long-term consequences of this AI infection coupled with the constant problems with load shedding will be the death blow to many small- and medium-sized poultry farmers. It may even become very difficult for the large poultry companies to survive the current crisis. In order to meet the demand for poultry products, South Africa will most likely become even more reliant on imported poultry products, which is another bone of contention.

News Archive

Media: Sunday Times
2006-05-20

Sunday Times, 4 June 2006

True leadership may mean admitting disunity
 

In this edited extract from the inaugural King Moshoeshoe Memorial Lecture at the University of the Free State, Professor Njabulo S Ndebele explores the leadership challenges facing South Africa

RECENT events have created a sense that we are undergoing a serious crisis of leadership in our new democracy. An increasing number of highly intelligent, sensitive and committed South Africans, across class, racial and cultural spectrums, confess to feeling uncertain and vulnerable as never before since 1994.

When indomitable optimists confess to having a sense of things unhinging, the misery of anxiety spreads. We have the sense that events are spiralling out of control and that no one among the leadership of the country seems to have a definitive handle on things.

There can be nothing more debilitating than a generalised and undefined sense of anxiety in the body politic. It breeds conspiracies and fear.

There is an impression that a very complex society has developed, in the last few years, a rather simple, centralised governance mechanism in the hope that delivery can be better and more quickly driven. The complexity of governance then gets located within a single structure of authority rather than in the devolved structures envisaged in the Constitution, which should interact with one another continuously, and in response to their specific settings, to achieve defined goals. Collapse in a single structure of authority, because there is no robust backup, can be catastrophic.

The autonomy of devolved structures presents itself as an impediment only when visionary cohesion collapses. Where such cohesion is strong, the impediment is only illusory, particularly when it encourages healthy competition, for example, among the provinces, or where a province develops a character that is not necessarily autonomous politically but rather distinctive and a special source of regional pride. Such competition brings vibrancy to the country. It does not necessarily challenge the centre.

Devolved autonomy is vital in the interests of sustainable governance. The failure of various structures to actualise their constitutionally defined roles should not be attributed to the failure of the prescribed governance mechanism. It is too early to say that what we have has not worked. The only viable corrective will be in our ability to be robust in identifying the problems and dealing with them concertedly.

We have never had social cohesion in South Africa — certainly not since the Natives’ Land Act of 1913. What we definitely have had over the decades is a mobilising vision. Could it be that the mobilising vision, mistaken for social cohesion, is cracking under the weight of the reality and extent of social reconstruction, and that the legitimate framework for debating these problems is collapsing? If that is so, are we witnessing a cumulative failure of leadership?

I am making a descriptive rather than an evaluative inquiry. I do not believe that there is any single entity to be blamed. It is simply that we may be a country in search of another line of approach. What will it be?

I would like to suggest two avenues of approach — an inclusive model and a counter-intuitive model of leadership.

In an inclusive approach, leadership is exercised not only by those who have been put in some position of power to steer an organisation or institution. Leadership is what all of us do when we express, sincerely, our deepest feelings and thoughts; when we do our work, whatever it is, with passion and integrity.

Counter-intuitive leadership lies in the ability of leaders to read a problematic situation, assess probable outcomes and then recognise that those outcomes will only compound the problem. Genuine leadership, in this sense, requires going against probability in seeking unexpected outcomes. That’s what happened when we avoided a civil war and ended up with an “unexpected” democracy.

Right now, we may very well hear desperate calls for unity, when the counter-intuitive imperative would be to acknowledge disunity. A declaration of unity where it manifestly does not appear to exist will fail to reassure.

Many within the “broad alliance” might have the view that the mobilising vision of old may have transformed into a strategy of executive steering with a disposition towards an expectation of compliance. No matter how compelling the reasons for that tendency, it may be seen as part of a cumulative process in which popular notions of democratic governance are apparently undermined and devalued; and where public uncertainty in the midst of seeming crisis induces fear which could freeze public thinking at a time when more voices ought to be heard.

Could it be that part of the problem is that we are unable to deal with the notion of opposition? We are horrified that any of us could be seen to have become “the opposition”. The word has been demonised. In reality, it is time we began to anticipate the arrival of a moment when there is no longer a single, overwhelmingly dominant political force as is currently the case. Such is the course of history. The measure of the maturity of the current political environment will be in how it can create conditions that anticipate that moment rather than seek to prevent it. We see here once more the essential creativity of the counter-intuitive imperative.

This is the formidable challenge of a popular post-apartheid political movement. Can it conceptually anticipate a future when it is no longer overwhelmingly in control, in the form in which it is currently, and resist, counter-intuitively, the temptation to prevent such an eventuality? Successfully resisting such an option would enable its current vision and its ultimate legacy to our country to manifest in different articulations, which then contend for social influence. In this way, the vision never really dies; it simply evolves into higher, more complex forms of itself. Consider the metaphor of flying ants replicating the ant community by establishing new ones.

We may certainly experience the meaning of comradeship differently, where we will now have “comrades on the other side”.

Any political movement that imagines itself as a perpetual entity should look at the compelling evidence of history. Few movements have survived those defining moments when they should have been more elastic, and that because they were not, did not live to see the next day.

I believe we may have reached a moment not fundamentally different from the sobering, yet uplifting and vision-making, nation-building realities that led to Kempton Park in the early ’90s. The difference between then and now is that the black majority is not facing white compatriots across the negotiating table. Rather, it is facing itself: perhaps really for the first time since 1994. Could we apply to ourselves the same degree of inventiveness and rigorous negotiation we displayed leading up to the adoption or our Constitution?

This is not a time for repeating old platitudes. It is the time, once more, for vision.

In the total scheme of things, the outcome could be as disastrous as it could be formative and uplifting, setting in place the conditions for a true renaissance that could be sustained for generations to come.

Ndebele is Vice-Chancellor of the University of Cape Town and author of the novel The Cry of Winnie Mandela

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