Latest News Archive

Please select Category, Year, and then Month to display items
Categories
UFS News Media Release Research
Years
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Months
January February March April May
Previous Archive
21 March 2024 Photo SUPPLIED
Prof Anthony Turton
Prof Anthony Turton is a water expert from the University of the Free State Centre for Environmental Management.

Opinion article by Prof Anthony Turton, Centre for Environmental Management, University of Free State.

On 30 May 2008, I was a guest speaker at the 10th Africa Day Conference hosted by UNISA in Pretoria. That was the first time I asked whether South Africa could become a failed state, citing international data on water scarcity. The evidence that I cited was visually powerful, but incomplete, so uncompelling. Yet that data confirmed work we had been doing at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in the aftermath of the publication of the National Water Resource Strategy (NWRS) in 2002. The NWRS data indicated that we had reached the limit of our water resource. We were forward-looking, and therefore in need of a model that could inform us about the future.

Approaching the water barrier

I had been impressed by the work done by Malin Falkenmark, an acclaimed Swedish scientist. She worked on the “hydraulic density of population” that measures the number of people that were competing for a given unit of water. She determined that a finite limit of 2 000 people per million litres per annum was the limit of known social stability. Any country approaching that “water barrier” would become increasingly unstable, and unless dealt with by means of technological intervention, would eventually disintegrate as a functional state.

Global data was placing us in the same risk category as the Middle East, but we also had a vibrant science, engineering and technology (SET) capability – a hangover from our arms development during the sanctions era – so we could avoid a disaster. This is the origin of my interest in state failure. By ignoring these warnings, we could see growing anarchy, increased unemployment, loss of investor confidence and the eventual collapse of the economy.

As society approaches the water barrier, policy options need to change. Before we reach the water barrier, the policy is all about building infrastructure to mobilise water for economic development. After the transition to fundamental water scarcity – when 2 000 people compete for one flow unit of water – the policy must logically be about retaining social cohesion. We must learn how to do better things with the little water we have left. This means protecting our rivers while developing the technology for recycling and recovery of water from waste and the ocean. Stated simply, my model was about the ability of an organ of state to self-correct.

The Vaal River case study

To self-correct, a coherent set of decision-making processes and procedures need to be in place. Data must flow into this decision-making black box. It must be processed and interpreted to the point where it triggers a logical decision to do something. That something is complex, for it is often abstract. It is very different to what has always been done in the past, so it requires imagination and cognitive skills embedded in a team of professionals that support the decision-making elites.

The Vaal River offers a unique case study in state failure because water lettuce was unknown before 2021. This means that when it was first reported to Rand Water at 14:31 on 5 February 2021, nobody knew what to do about it. The first person to respond was Francois van Wyk, a competent environmental scientist and water quality specialist at Rand Water. Responding immediately to the image, he launched an investigation on the river itself. As this was happening, river property owners sent an e-mail to the CEO of Rand Water on 10 February. We can therefore identify two specific moments of data input into the black box of decision-making that Rand Water represents. Van Wyk submitted his first formal report to the monthly management meeting during the second week of March 2021. We know that in March 2021, Rand Water formally took note of the presence of water lettuce, reported from two different locations.

The plant in question was unknown, so there was no record of its explosive growth rate on South African rivers contaminated by sewage. The sewage had become an issue a decade earlier, culminating with the deployment of the South African Defence Force in 2019. With the perfect vision of hindsight, we now know that sewage, warm temperatures, and water lettuce equals explosive growth.

The officials became alarmed at the level of anger from society, so they started to make a series of flawed decisions. Central to that panic was the ill-advised use of Glyphosate, a highly controversial chemical not licensed for use on water lettuce in South Africa. The crisis overwhelmed the capacity of the state to respond. It was an emergency, so shortcuts were taken in the decision-making process. Assumptions were made that other entities knew more than they actually did. Relentless pressure from increasingly impatient landowners, losing business from the impenetrable raft of water lettuce, pushed the authorities over the edge. All these factors combined, resulting in the authorisation of Glyphosate on a river of national importance, but oblivious to the depth of public sensitivity over the chemical. Report 3107/1/23 from the Water Research Commission, cautioned the decision-maker on page 6 by drawing attention to known long-term impacts that are not yet understood, often caused by additives. This cautionary note lists hepatorenal risk (damage to liver and kidney), teratogenicity (mutations), tumorigenicity (tumour forming) and transgenerational risk (the probability that the next generation of people could be affected).

Time is no longer on our side

These are all serious matters requiring sober reflection and rational decision-making. We now know that the sands of time have run out. An invasive plant, unheard of in 2021, has literally overwhelmed the Vaal River in 2024. In three years, the bureaucratic processes could not avert a disaster that has the capacity to destroy the river on which 60% of the national economy and around 20 million humans depend. More importantly, what took five decades (2 650 months) to happen in Hartbeespoort Dam, occurred in just 36 months on the Vaal. And so, as we return to Malin Falkenmark and her water barrier, we can say with growing confidence, that we are destroying what little water we have left. Our inability to self-correct is accelerating the advance of the water barrier, beyond which economic development and social stability is increasingly unlikely. We are polluting the little water we have left, with a chemical that it highly contentious, yet was chosen as the last line of defence in a rapidly unfolding calamity. It was like grasping floating flotsam as the Titanic slipped under the water in the cold Atlantic Ocean.

We can also say that at precisely 14:31 on 5 February 2021, the state failed in the water sector, because it was unable to respond to a risk that had never been encountered before. The take-home message is that we need to wake up, because it is in nobody’s interest to live in a failing state. If water lettuce, feeding on sewage, can cause so much damage, then what about the pathogens also thriving in that same water? How long can we continue to discharge untreated sewage into our rivers and expect no public health risks?

Time is no longer on our side. The rate of change now exceeds the capacity of our decision-making processes to cope. The dominoes are falling. Let’s think out of the box and stop the flow of sewage into our rivers in the first place. Now that’s a radical thought indeed. 

News Archive

Volksblad: Moshoeshoe Memorial Lecture
2006-05-27

27 Mei 2006

Moshoeshoe het mense saamgebind
KONING MOSHOESHOE kon bewys dat verskeidenheid ’n bindende eienskap kan wees. Dit blyk ’n sleutelbeginsel van sy leierskap te wees – en dit is nie ’n maklike een om te begryp nie.

Jy bereik die grootste eenheid tussen onderskeidende entiteite waar jy relatief vrye ruimte aan hulle gee om hul eiesoortige kenmerke na vore te bring.

Dít blyk uit prof. Njabulo Ndebele se gedenklesing oor koning Moshoeshoe.
Lesotho; het; onder Moshoeshoe se leierskap mense van verskeie dele van die subkontinent gelok.
Dié mense het hierheen gevlug van die verwoesting wat as lifaqane bekend geword het toe Shaka sy koninkryk met militêre onderwerping verstewig het.

Ndebele het gesê daar is algemene ooreenkoms dat die oorloë wat hieruit gespruit het, die maatskaplike grondslae van talle samelewings in Suider-Afrika geskud het.

“Dit was in dié konteks dat Moshoeshoe leierskap getoon het.”
Prof. Frederick Fourie, rektor en visekanselier van die Universiteit van die Vrystaat (UV), het gesê die lesing vorm deel van ’n groter debat oor leierskapmodelle, veral die konsep van Afrika-leierskap, en die voortgesette diskoers oor nasiebou en versoening.

Die Moshoeshoe-projek is in 2004 aan die UV begin om met Suid-Afrika se eerste dekade van demokrasie saam te val.
Die projek was deel van die UV se eeufeesvieringe in 2004.
Met dié projek word geprobeer om ’n groot Afrika-leier te vereer en die UV se verbintenis tot transformasie te toon sodat ’n ware inklusiewe en nie-rassige universiteit geskep kan word.

“As die stigter van die Basoeto-nasie, word daar wyd erkenning aan koning Moshoeshoe vir sy buitengewone leierskapstyl gegee.

“Diplomasie, versoening en vreedsame naasbestaan is van die kenmerke van sy leierskap, soos getoon in sy pogings om verskillende groepe in een nasie te verenig,” sê Fourie.

KONING MOSHOESHOE, een van Afrika se eertydse groot leiers. Hy is meer as 130 jaar gelede dood. Foto: verskaf

Waarde van openbare spraak ‘nou bedreig’
AANDUIDINGS bestaan dat die waarde van openbare spraak wat hoog deur koning Moshoeshoe van Lesotho op prys gestel is, nou onder ernstige bedreiging kan wees.

Om dié rede dra hy die koning Moshoeshoe-gedenklesing op aan al dié mense in Suid-Afrika en elders wat die moed het om hul oorwoë mening uit te druk oor belangrike sake wat die samelewing in die gesig staar, het prof. Njabulo Ndebele, visekanselier van die Universiteit van Kaapstad, gesê.

Ndebele, wêreldbekende skrywer, het gesê dié lesing kom op ’n kritieke punt in Suid-Afrika se nuwe demokrasie.
Dié lesing, om die buitengewone nalatenskap van een van Afrika se groot leiers te eer, is eergisteraand op die kampus van die Universiteit van die Vrystaat (UV) gelewer en het ’n staande toejuiging deur ’n groot gehoor uitgelok.

Ndebele het gesê die mense wat hul menings uitdruk oor belangrike sake, kan rubriekskrywers, redakteurs, kommentators, alle soorte kunstenaars, akademici, koerantbriefskrywers, nie-gewelddadige optoggangers met plakkate en strokiesprentkunstenaars wees “wat ’n spieël voor ons oë sit”.

“Selfs wanneer hulle dit waag op heilige gebied, soos sommige strokiesprentkunstenaars onlangs gedoen het, herinner hulle ons net dat selfs die heilige misbruik kan word vir doeleindes wat min met heiligheid te doen het.

“Dit is hul manier om ons te help, dalk meer diepsinnig as wat ons besef, om daardie einste ruimte van heiligheid in ons lewe te bewaar.

“Hulle verdiep ons insigte deur ons begrip te verdiep.
“Dit is gepas om hul dapperheid te vier,” het Ndebele gesê.
“Hulle herinner ons dat leierskap nie al is wat ons doen wanneer ons in ’n sekere magsposisie geplaas is om ’n organisasie of ’n sekere instelling te stuur nie.”

Hy het gesê onder die mense wat gevier moet word, sluit hy nie dié in wat deur haatspraak ander aanhits om geweld te pleeg; teen; mense; wat hul andersdenkende menings lug nie.

“Dit is nie met dapperheid dat hulle aanhits nie, maar weens hul toevlug tot die narkotiese beskerming van die skare.”

Mense voel glo ál kwesbaarder
Vise-kanselier lewer Moshoeshoe-gedenklesing
’n TOENEMENDE aantal hoogs intelligente, sensitiewe en toegewyde Suid-Afrikaners oor die klas-, ras- en kulturele spektrum heen bely dat hulle – soos nog nooit tevore nie – onseker en kwesbaar voel sedert 1994.

Só het prof. Njabulo Ndebele, vise-kanselier van die Universiteit van Kaapstad, gesê in die Universiteit van die Vrystaat (UV) se eerste koning Moshoeshoe-gedenklesing.

Die onderwerp was Reflections on the leadership challenges in South Africa.
Wanneer ontembare optimiste beken hulle voel dinge is van stryk, versprei die naarheid van angs. “Dit moet iets te doen hê met ’n ophoping van gebeure wat die gevoel van dreigende inploffing oordra.”

’n Gevoel heers dat Suid-Afrika ’n baie komplekse samelewing het wat liewer eenvoudige, gesentraliseerde beheer voortbring in die hoop dat dienslewering dan beter en vinniger gedryf kan word. Die kompleksiteit van beheer word dan in ’n enkele struktuur van gesag gevestig, eerder as in die afgewentelde strukture soos wat in die Grondwet beoog word.

Dat die afgewentelde strukture nie hul grondwetlik-gedefinieerde rolle verwerklik nie, moenie toegeskryf word aan die mislukking van die beheermeganisme nie.

“Dit is te vroeg om te sê dat wat ons sedert 1994 bereik het, nie gewerk het nie,” het Ndebele gesê.
Dit lyk of ’n kombinasie van omstandighede tot die “gevoel van ontknoping” lei.
“Ek wil dit vermy om te sê: ‘Kyk na Khutsong’, asof u sal verstaan wat ek bedoel wanneer ek sê u moet na Khutsong kyk.”
Sulke kennis lei tot wanhoop, want dit roep ’n werklikheid op wat só oorweldigend is dat dit fatalisties kan wees.
Ndebele het gesê niks kon meer vreesaanjaend wees as toe ’n komplot van die Boeremag oopgevlek en sekere Boeremaglede aangekeer is nie.

Sekere Boeremaglede het van ’n maksimum-sekuriteit-tronk ontsnap. “Sover ek weet, is hulle nie weer gevang nie.
“Wat is gedoen om die gaping te oorbrug?” was een van sy vrae hieroor.
“Van só ’n belangrike saak weet die publiek nie baie nie. Die karige kommunikasie kan die gevaarlike boodskap uitdra dat óf niks gedoen word nie, óf die staat in dié saak misluk.”

Hy het gevra: “Hoekom het die kwessie van munisipale afbakening tot die situasie in Khutsong gelei? Dit lyk of die probleem voortgaan, sonder ’n oplossing in sig.”

’n Aantal soortgelyke, oënskynlik plaaslike rebellies het oor die land heen plaasgevind. “Is hier ’n patroon?”
Ndebele het na die onlangse verhoor van oud-adj.pres. Jacob Zuma, wat van verkragting aangekla was, verwys.
Dié drama blyk ver van oor te wees. Dit beloof “om ons almal sonder verligting te hou, in ’n toestand van angs”.
Die gemene draad van dié gebeure is die gevoel van ’n oneindige spiraal van probleme wat vertroue tap. Daar kan ’n sterk suggestie in al dié gebeure wees “dat ons dalk nooit sosiale samehang in Suid-Afrika gehad het nie...”

“Wat ons sekerlik oor dekades gehad het, is ’n mobiliserende visie. Kan dit wees dat die mobiliserende visie onder die gewig van die werklikheid en omvang van maatskaplike heropbouing kraak en dat die legitieme raamwerk om oor dié probleme te debatteer ineenstort?”

‘Swart mense staar hulself in die gesig’
DIE swart meerderheid staar homself nou in die gesig: dalk werklik vir die eerste keer sedert 1994.
Só het prof. Njabulo Ndebele gesê toe hy die koning Moshoeshoe-gedenklesing by die Universiteit van die Vrystaat in Bloemfontein gelewer het.

Hy het gesê dit lyk of Suid-Afrika ’n meganisme nodig het om selfvertroue te bou.
Deur dié meganisme “kan ons die situasie waarin ons is, erken, wat dit ook al is”.
“Ons het ’n meganisme nodig wat die verskillende posisies van die mededingers sal bevestig en hul eerlikheid sal bekragtig op ’n manier wat die publiek vertroue sal gee dat werklike oplossings moontlik is.”

Dit is dié soort “openheid wat nooit maklik kom nie”, wat lei tot deurbraak-oplossings.
Ndebele het gesê ’n komplekse demokrasie soos Suid-Afrika s’n kan nie oorleef met ’n enkele gesag nie.
Net veelvuldige owerhede binne ’n grondwetlike raamwerk “het ’n ware kans”.
“Kan ’n deel van die probleem wees dat ons nie in staat is om die idee van ‘opposisie’ te hanteer nie?
“Ons is verskrik dat enige van ons ‘die opposisie’ kan word.
“Dit is tyd dat ons die koms voorsien van ’n oomblik wanneer daar nie meer ’n enkele, oorweldigende, dominante politieke mag is soos wat nou die geval is nie.”

Ndebele het gesê: “Ek glo ons het dalk ’n oomblik bereik wat nie fundamenteel verskillend is nie van die ontnugterende, tóg hartversterkende nasiebourealiteite wat gelei het tot Kemptonpark in die vroeë jare negentig.”

“Die verskil tussen toe en nou is dat die swart meerderheid nie nou na wit landgenote oor die onderhandelingstafel kyk nie.

“Die swart meerderheid staar homself in die gesig: dalk werklik vir die eerste keer sedert 1994.”
Dit is weer “tyd vir visie”, het Ndebele gesê.

We use cookies to make interactions with our websites and services easy and meaningful. To better understand how they are used, read more about the UFS cookie policy. By continuing to use this site you are giving us your consent to do this.

Accept