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COVID-19 and Easter Weekend: Same trends as the festive season may lead to a third wave

01 April 2021 | Story Andre Damons | Photo istock

COVID third wave_read more — The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave and people’s behaviour will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.

Similar trends as during the festive season of 2020 – when the behaviour of people was driving COVID-19 transmissions and played a role in the second wave – have emerged due to the Easter holidays, and may contribute to a third wave.

“This means that we can already anticipate gatherings and a higher rate of travel during the next three weeks. As a result of this as well as non-adherence to the non-pharmaceutical interventions, we can anticipate this event to serve as a catalyst for transmission.”

“If nothing is done to prevent this, it is anticipated that the Free State will see a steady increase and a potential third wave between 17 April and 26 June,” says Herkulaas Combrink, the interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP).

The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave

According to him, the vulnerability and population density dynamics in each province, the behaviour of people, and the social norms between communities must be taken into consideration to contextualise the impact of Easter on disease transmission – especially when looking at SARS-CoV-2.

For the Free State, the Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst that will lead up to the third wave, says Combrink. “If no interventions are put in place and people do not adhere to non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the spread of the disease, then we will see a steady climb and increase in cases up until that time. This means that the behaviour of people will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.”

Reducing the severity of the third wave

According to Combrink, who is involved in risk communication and vaccine analytics with other members of the UFS, we may be able to reduce the severity of the third wave if the variant remains the same and the vaccination roll-out plan is in full effect. It will also help if the correct number of people are vaccinated, the general population adheres to PPE and mitigation strategies, and people practise the appropriate behaviour as indicated in all official COVID-19 communication, including the UFS COVID-19 information page.

According to Prof Felicity Burt and Dr Sabeehah Vawda, both virology experts in the UFS Division of Virology, the current vaccination programme is aimed at reducing the severity of the disease among health-care workers. Prevention of further waves of infection through vaccination will require sufficient coverage to induce at least 70% herd immunity in the country. Currently, no country has achieved that level of herd immunity through vaccine programmes – this is the long-term goal of vaccination.

“Irrespective of the government’s vaccination programmes and schedules and a virus that may mutate and perhaps become more virulent, the fundamental ways to protect yourself remain unchanged, namely social distancing, wearing of masks, and regular hand washing. People need to realise that this ‘new normal’ is going to be with us for a while and remains the best defence against all SARS-CoV-2 viruses and even provides protection against other respiratory pathogens.”

Vaccines and mutations

The exact frequency of mutations differs between different types of viruses, but generally, SARS-CoV-2 is known to have a slower ‘mutation rate’ than other RNA viruses because of its built-in ‘proofreading’ enzyme. The true mutation rate of a virus is difficult to measure, as the majority of mutations will be lethal to the virus. Irrespective, very few have actually resulted in clinical impact.

“This highlights the rather gradual process of mutation, so vaccines should remain effective or at least partially effective in the near future, as they elicit antibodies that target different parts of the virus. Continuous surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is necessary and ongoing to monitor for changes that may impact vaccines and diagnostic tests,” the experts say.

According to Prof Burt and Dr Vawda, scientists are continuously monitoring the situation to detect if the current vaccines would remain effective and to try to adjust them accordingly. How or when the virus will mutate in a clinically significant way is unknown, so at this point, the current vaccines have been shown to be effective against severe disease and hence have application in reducing significant disease.

“There remains a lot unknown about the extent of protection and the duration of protection, and it is obviously hoped that the vaccine’s immune response in the human body would be able to provide at least some protection or decrease the possibility of severe disease even against potentially newer variants.”

Dr Sabeehah Vawda is employed by the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) as a pathologist in virology and by the UFS as a Senior Lecturer in the Division of Virology.

Prof Felicity is an expert in arbovirology in the Division of Virology and holds a South African Research Chair in Vector-borne and Zoonotic Pathogens Research.

Herkulaas Combrink is the Interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria.

News Archive

Kovsie artists to rock at Vryfees

2014-06-18

Photo: Conrad Bornman

It is the dead of winter in the heart of the Free State. The Vryfees is laying full steam ahead.

However, the talent that makes of this annual arts festival such a phenomenal success doesn’t only come from outside of our Bloemfontein Campus. This year’s productions will abound with performances by Kovsie staff, students and alumni from our Department of Drama and Theatre Arts.

Behind the scenes, our people will also play a vital role in the achievement and progress of the festival. Prof Luwes is a member of the festival committee and together with Dr Venter and Godfrey Manenye, he also serves on the artistic selection committee for theatre.

Thys Heydenrych, lecturer in the above department, was appointed as the technical manager of this year’s Vryfees. This means that he is in charge of the placement and assigning of venues for productions on campus. All the technical aspects for these venues rest on Heydenrych’s shoulders. For this huge task, he is supported by a team of technical staff which includes mostly students.

Take a look at the list of all our Kovsie artists who are working hard to make the 2014 Vryfees better than ever:

Don Juan onder die Boere
Lecturers: Walter Strydom, Gerben Kamper (director),
Students: Mark Dobson, Michael Garbett, Helet de Wet
Former students: Marijda Kamper (Wynand Mouton theatre manager), Ilne Fourie, Hilletje Möller, Chanmari Erasmus, Michelle Hoffman, An-Mari Loots, Madré van Straten

S(t)out en Peper
Lecturers: Dr Pieter Venter (director), Thys Heydenrych
Former students: Ilne Fourie, Michelle Hoffman

Nag van die Hiëna
Head of Department: Prof Nico Luwes (author and director)
Lecturers: Gerben Kamper, Minette Grové
Former students: Carel Nel, Lindy-Lee Kleynhans, Ilne Fourie, Angelo Mockie (staff member at Student Affairs)
Student: Peter Taljaard (PhD student)

Rondomskrik
Former student: Chrystal-Donna Roberts (currently Pasella presenter and previously on the set of 7de Laan)

Slaaf
Former student: Carel Nel

Te Veel vir ? Coloured Girl
Former students: Angelo Mockie (staff member at Student Affairs), Olivie Sauer

The Bar
Lecturer: Godfrey Manenye (director)
Former students: Angela Edwards, Jane Mpholo
Students: Yoliswa Jacobs and Luandro Carstens

Victoria se Geheim
Lecturer: Dr Pieter Venter (director)
Former students: Chanmari Erasmus, Carel Nel, Gené McCaskill, Michelle Hetzel
Students: Helet de Wet, Marli van der Bijl (NRF Magister Intern), Jana Coetzer, Marnel Bester

Een Kleine Lientjie
Lecturer: Walter Strydom
Former student: Anna Visser (author and director, OFM presenter)
Students: Marli van der Bijl, Charl Henning, Jana Coetzer

For more information on the productions or the Vryfees programme, follow this link:
http://www.vryfees.co.za/

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