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The 30% tariff hike: SA must strengthen diplomatic ties, diversify trade partnerships beyond the US

07 April 2025 Photo Supplied

Opinion article by Dr Calvin Mudzingiri, Assistant Dean: Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Free State, Qwaqwa Campus

The sudden hike of import tariffs by US President Donald Trump and his administration to countries across the world is set to reduce the volume of goods traded and affect citizen welfare across the globe. The Trump administration implemented a global 10% import tariff and a varying targeted reciprocal tariff to a host of countries, including South Africa. The reciprocal import tariff to be levied on South African export goods to the US is set at 30%. Historical data show that yearly trade between SA and US amounts to $23 billion and the US is SA’s the second biggest trading partner after China. The high tariff will reduce the competitiveness of South African export goods to American markets, leading to reduced demand of SA exports in US markets, low income to firms, job losses, low income to households and ultimately lower South African economic growth.

SA and US trade

South Africa exports platinum, locally assembled cars, raw aluminium, ferroalloys and agriculture products, among other goods, to the US. The implication of the US administration’s 30% tariff hike could result in job losses in the mining, automobile, agriculture and many other industries. More income losses to SA agricultural exports can also be experienced if the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) expires in September 2025, if the US congressmen decide not to renew the agreement. Given the low economic growth rate in South Africa in 2024, which is estimated at 0.6%, the tariff hike by the US will exacerbate sluggish economic growth and recovery from the COVID 19 pandemic.

Statistics also show that SA imports energy products, machinery, vehicle, industrial and other consumer goods. The goods and services SA imports from the US play a critical role in developing and sustaining local industry. SA can decide to source the goods from other markets and if this happens with all economies where tariffs were imposed, the US will be worse off. There is a possibility that economies which received a tariff hike from the US will implement a reciprocal tariff hike to the US reducing the volume of global trade. The reduced trade volumes have dire implications for job creation, income generation by firms and households, making citizens worse off.

US current trade policy

It is important to note that President Trump administration’s trade policies are premised on a trade notion synonymous to ‘mercantilism’, which was practised in Europe between the 16th to 18th centuries. Under mercantilism, an economy aims to maintain a trade surplus, the government regulate the economy, discourage imports (in the case of the US using tariff hikes) and promote growth of home industries among other initiatives. Conventional economics wisdom has proved that policies pursued by the Trump administration of protectionism are a breeding ground for trade wars. There is great potential of fellow trading partners retaliating and if that happens, global citizens will be made worse off as they will be forced to pay high prices for goods due to additional costs driven by tariff hikes. In addition, US industry relies on raw materials from other countries. If the suppliers of raw material resources retaliate, the production cost model of US firms will rise, reducing export competitiveness of US exports.

Trump’s administration is calling for firms across the world to move and produce goods in the US to avoid tariff levies. The action works against the benefits of free trade and can affect firms’ comparative advantages. The production cost structure in the US can be higher than in other countries leading to firms realising low profits if they move to the US. It is essential to note that free trade with absolutely no trade barriers will enhance the welfare of citizens at large, since goods and services will be purchased at low prices. The US government’s act of over-regulating trade can limit economic growth not only of other countries but even that of the US economy.

Options for the SA government

In the face of trade adversity, the SA government must not fold its hands and do nothing. It is enlightening to note that the authorities have already initiated diplomatic and trade negotiations. Negotiations can possibly focus on tariff reduction, maintaining the AGOA, and delving deep in the logic used to arrive at the 30% tariff hike. The diplomatic initiatives must encompass improving perceptions and clarity of SA policies such as the Expropriation Act which is one of the reasons cited by the US administration in ratcheting the tariff trade war.

South Africa must re-orient its trading patterns and partnerships. The aggregate world gross domestic product (GDP) is greater than the US total production for goods and services. There is need for SA to improve trade relations with other economies to broaden its trade base. The current frosty trade relationship between SA and the US presents a window to strengthen trade with the EU, Asia, BRICS plus, Africa, and any other economy willing to get into trade partnerships. SA must explore other markets where the export goods still enjoy competitiveness.

To ensure economic resilience to trade wars in the long run, SA needs to seriously invest in research and development that promote value addition of local production, enhancing local production and technology advancement that can stimulate economies of scale, which can boost competitiveness of export goods. Competitiveness can be further enhanced by improving energy production efficiency, which is a crucial input of goods and services production. Developing a powerful and skilled human capital base can lead to labour productivity efficiency, further enhancing competitiveness. SA has a dilapidated infrastructure ranging from roads, rail, buildings and industry among others. Improving the infrastructure will go a long way in improving local production, leading to creation of jobs and improved incomes for households.

Boosting local economic activity can stimulate local consumption of goods as household income improves. If the incomes of SA citizens improve, there is a potential to increase local consumption. Goods meant for export markets can end up being consumed in the domestic markets, providing a homemade solution to dwindling export goods markets. The SA government must consider developing and supporting new industries that can compete in the local and international markets. In this way, the trade challenges posed by unfriendly US administration trade policies can present opportunities to the SA economy in the long run.

News Archive

Power interruptions: Information for internal communication

2008-01-31

As part of the UFS’s commitment to address load shedding, the management would like to communicate the following:

The UFS mainly deals with the power interruptions by way of (a) the possible installation of equipment (e.g. generators) and (b) operational arrangements to ensure the functioning of the UFS in spite of power interruptions.

During the past week progress was made on both fronts. The information that follows resulted from a meeting of a task team of Physical Resources led by Mr Nico Janse van Rensburg, which took place on Monday 28 January (this task team naturally focuses on physical solutions) and a discussion by Exco on Wednesday 30 January 2008. Exco discussed the recommendations of the mentioned task team in respect of physical aspects, as well as the operational arrangements proposed by faculties.

Physical solutions

A Main Campus

1. New emergency power installations already approved:

Last week Exco gave its approval for the design and installation of emergency power equipment in all the large lecture-hall complexes to proceed immediately.

In all these cases

load surveys have been completed and a start has been made with the ordering of equipment and the process of appointing contractors. (Exco approved the adjustment of normal tender procedures in an attempt to expedite completion.)
generators with 20-30% more capacity than required for the current load are being ordered.
provision is being made for the connection of lights and at least one wall plug to the emergency power.
the expected construction time is 16 weeks (except in the case of the Flippie Groenewoud Building where it is 6 weeks).

The above-mentioned concerns lecture halls/ venues in the following buildings: Examination Centre, Flippie Groenewoud Building, Stabilis, Genmin and the Agriculture Building.

As far as the Agriculture Building is concerned, a larger generator (larger than required for lecture venues only) is being ordered in view of simultaneously providing essential research equipment (refrigerators, ovens, glasshouses) with emergency power within 16 weeks.

2. Investigation into the optimal utilisation of present emergency power installations

All the emergency power systems are being investigated on the basis of a list compiled in 2006 to determine whether excess capacity is available and whether it is possible to connect additional essential equipment or lights to it.

The electrical engineer warns as follows:
“Staff members must under no circumstances overload present emergency power points.

A typical example of this is a laboratory with 10 power points of which 2 points are emergency power outlets. Normally a fridge and freezer would, for example, be plugged into the two emergency power points, but now, with long load-shedding interruptions, a considerably larger number of appliances are being plugged into the power point by means of multi-sockets and extension cords. In the end the effect of such connections will accumulate at the emergency generator, which will then create a greater danger of it being overloaded and tripping, in other words, no emergency power will then be available.”

3. Requests and needs addressed directly to Physical Resources or reported to Exco via the line managers.

All the physical needs and requests addressed directly to Physical Resources or submitted to Exco via the line managers are being listed, classified and considered technically in view of their being discussed by the task team on Monday 11 February.
The information will (a) lead to recommendations to Exco regarding possible additional urgent emergency power installations, and (b) be used in the comprehensive investigation into the UFS’s preparedness for and management of long power interruptions.

Requests that can easily be complied with immediately and that fit into the general strategy will indeed be dealt with as soon as possible.

4. Purchase of loose-standing equipment: light, small, loose-standing generators, UPSs as solutions to/ aids during power interruptions

Exco approved that

a) faculties and support services accept responsibility themselves for the funding and purchase of loose equipment such as, for example battery lights, should they regard these as essential.
b) UPSs (uninterruptible power supplies) that faculties and support services wish to purchase to combat the detrimental effect of unexpected power interruptions on computer equipment) can (as at present) be purchased from own funds via Computer Services.
c) UPSs (uninterruptible power supplies) that faculties and support services wish to purchase to combat the detrimental effect of unexpected power interruptions on other types of equipment can normally be purchased from own funds with the consent of the line manager concerned.
Note: Please just make sure of the appropriateness of the equipment for a specific situation: it is not a power supply that can bridge a two-hour power interruption.)
d) small, loose-standing generators can be purchased from own funds via Physical Resources and installed under their supervision.
e) laptop computers can , where necessary, be purchased from own budgets. The availability of second-hand laptop computers must be taken into account.

B Vista

No major problems have been reported to date. The situation is being monitored and will be managed according to need. The same guidelines that apply to the Main Campus will naturally also apply to the Vista Campus.

C Qwaqwa

The situation is receiving attentions and solutions have already been found for most problems.

D General

1. All-inclusive project
A comprehensive investigation into the UFS’s preparedness for and management of long power interruptions will be launched as soon as possible. Available capacity will be utilised first to alleviate the immediate need. The needs assessment to which all faculties and support services have already contributed is already an important building block of the larger project.

2. Building and construction projects currently in the planning and implementation phase
The need for emergency power for projects such as the new Computer Laboratory is being investigated proactively and will be addressed in a suitable manner.

3. Liaison with Centlec
Attempts at direct and continuous liaison are continuing in an attempt to accommodate the unique needs of the UFS.

4. HESA meeting and liaison with other universities
A representative of the UFS will attend a meeting of all higher education institutions on 11 February. The meeting is being arranged by HESA (Higher Education South Africa) to discuss the implications for the sector, the management of risks and the sector’s response to government.

5. Internal communication
It is the intention to communicate internally after every meeting of the task team, which will take place on Mondays. Strategic Communication will assist in this regard.

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