The agriculture sector, with production being so dependent on climatic conditions, is strongly affected by climate change – which has become a key factor driving the agricultural agenda globally. The sector is also a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.

According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change (IPCC), 21-37% of total greenhouse gas emissions are attributable to the food system. At the same time, agriculture can be part of the solution to climate change through agricultural lands acting as sinks for important greenhouse such as gases CO2 and CH4, and in general by contributing to a greener economy.

To unravel these interactions and come to more ‘climate-smart’ agricultural production systems with a low carbon footprint, the University of the Free State (UFS), together with the Agricultural Research Council (ARC) and the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD) established the Climate Change and Agriculture research chair.

The chair, together with three other recently established research chairs, is hosted within the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences (NAS) and will be headed by Prof Linus Franke, Head of the UFS Department of Soil, Crop, and Climate Sciences.

Agriculture a major source of greenhouse gas

Prof Franke says the main research themes of his chair include studies of the impact of climate change on crop production and rangelands, studies on carbon dynamics of agricultural soils, as well as integrating weather and vegetation indices derived from remote sensing for decision support to farmers. He hopes that this research chair will be able to influence policies on carbon taxing, carbon credits and policies that assist farmers to adapt to a changing climate in the future.

Prof Franke, who will be stepping down as HOD to focus on the research chair and his research, says the agricultural sector has a major impact on climate change.

“It’s a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural soils have lost a lot of their soil carbon, compared to similar soils under natural vegetation. If farmers manage their soils better, they can increase soil carbon levels, which also improves soil functioning. A lot of work is being done to find better ways of managing soil in order to improve the soil’s ability to store carbon.

“Other major sources of greenhouses gases include the production of fertiliser, in particular nitrogen, which is an energy intensive process. On top of that, if farmers apply nitrogen fertiliser to their soil, micro-organisms in the soil produce N2O gas, which is a very powerful greenhouse gas,” says Prof Franke.

In crop production, Prof Franke continues, it is important to think about smarter use of fertiliser and in regards to rangelands/grasslands, one should optimise rangelands management in such a way that vegetation stores more carbon.

Societal impact

“Climate models exist that predict the climate in 20 or 50 years’ time with a certain greenhouse gas emission scenario. We develop crop models to predict what might happen to crop yields in the future under climate change. We hope that the information we gather in the different themes can eventually lead to influencing policies in South Africa.

“We have already done work over the last few years on carbon sequestration in grasslands and how it is affected by grazing management, which led to the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment reaching out and asking if we could possibly write a policy document for them,” says Prof Franke.

According to him, it is important to do research with a societal impact such as climate change and how to mitigate it and reduce greenhouse emissions.

Future predictions

Prof Franke explains that they will make use of climate models to predict climate patterns for a certain area on certain period. These models will be able to predict the climate in 20-50 years’ time which will in turn influence what farmers will be able to plant and the yields they may get.

“Even if these models’ predictions are wrong, we still might be able to say in a few decades time, it will be too hot in the summer to plant potatoes in a certain area. But who knows, new breeding techniques or other technological progress may make potato more heat tolerant which will still make it possible to produce potatoes in that area,” explains Prof Franke.

Researching carbon credits

The chair will also research carbon credits and carbon tax and getting a science base behind this. For Prof Franke it is important to understand the carbon footprint of farming in South Africa. Science and knowledge are needed to quantify carbon storage in a proper way as one should not only look at emission, but we also need to look at the carbon storage in soil.

Prof Franke believes his research chair, with the equipment they aim to acquire, will be able to measure how much N2O is being released – particularly from crop land and what can be done to reduce those emissions. To manage it, he says, you first have to measure it.