The African National Congress (ANC) is poised to receive less than 50% of the vote in the upcoming elections, potentially leading to a coalition government for the first time in history. This prediction was made by panellists at the recent Thought
Leader webinar hosted by the University of the Free State (UFS).
The 2024 UFS Thought Leader Webinar, now in its sixth year, featured a discussion between Dr Ebrahim Harvey and Prof Bonang Mohale on South Africa’s trajectory and the crucial 2024 elections. The event was facilitated by UFS Vice-Chancellor and Principal, Prof Francis Petersen.
State capture: A critical perspective
The webinar painted a stark picture of South Africa’s 30-year democracy, highlighting both early achievements and recent declines. Dr Harvey noted the impressive institution-building during the first 15 years of democracy but lamented the subsequent deterioration in the socio-economic conditions of ordinary South Africans. He predicts that the ANC will lose the elections and be forced into a coalition government for the first time, stating, “The party deserves to lose the elections.”
Dr Harvey challenged the prevailing narrative of state capture, arguing that the ANC's macroeconomic policies have resulted in massive retrenchments and a shift towards neoliberalism, which has disproportionately impacted the black working class. “South Africans are worse off economically and materially 30 years after democracy, with high unemployment and poverty rates primarily affecting black and female populations,” he asserted. He contrasted the lavish lifestyles of the ANC elite with those of opposition figures, illustrating the growing economic divide.
He condemned the ANC’s failure to deliver on its promises, leading to worsening poverty and inequality, particularly in Johannesburg’s black townships, which he describes as a microcosm of the wider issues facing South Africans. “The ANC’s response to the country’s challenges has been inadequate,” Dr Harvey stated. He believes the party's anticipated loss in the upcoming elections is due to its inaction on crucial socio-economic issues, especially those pivoted around basic services, water and sanitation, jobs, and housing.
Business and transformation
Prof Mohale echoed Dr Harvey’s sentiments, emphasising the electorate's demand for ethical leadership, good governance, and effective service delivery. “Business might demand something different from what has been done in the past,” he said, advocating for a more equitable and socially responsible business landscape. “This economy must look like us. It must be broadly reflective of the demographics.”
He criticised the ANC for enabling white monopoly capital and urged white-dominated companies to prioritise social justice in their transformation efforts, particularly by empowering women. Prof Mohale added that the government needs to create an enabling environment for businesses in South Africa, noting the challenges small and medium enterprises face in complying with laws and regulations, which hinder their growth.
National Health Insurance (NHI)
Both panellists expressed concerns about the National Health Insurance (NHI), a cornerstone of the ANC’s healthcare policy. Dr Harvey argued that the NHI’s success relies on well-resourced public hospitals, but the current crisis in the public sector undermines its viability. He questioned the state of public hospitals and their capacity to implement the NHI. Prof Mohale concurred, stating that the ANC government’s poor execution renders them unfit to manage the NHI programme.
Panellists agreed that public trust has been eroded due to the ANC's struggles with corruption and inefficiency. The webinar highlighted the anxieties in South Africa leading up to the elections, marking a critical juncture with expectations of ethical governance and renewed commitment.
Watch the webinar below: