Tampering with VAT became more than just a political flashpoint – it ignited public outrage and exposed the fragile trust in the Government of National Unity (GNU). Citizens lamented vigorously, raising their voices in protest long before the government seemed willing to hear their outcry. At this point it became clear the emperor had no clothes, revealing the ignorance of the political elite, illustrated in the words of Danish author Hans Christian Andersen that “the king is in his dressing room”, blind to the suffering of his people. The Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana’s disregard for the economic suffering of the people has exposed the truth. The recent Western Cape High Court order in favour of the DA and the EFF setting aside VAT and the fiscal framework, while welcomed by many, signalled something deeper: that the GNU may be too unstable to steer the current ship and too preoccupied with self-serving party interests than in the country’s national interest. The belief that a grand coalition between the ANC and DA could provide stability has, paradoxically, led to greater instability. As seen in many fragile, coalition-led municipalities, it is once again the larger parties now at the national level – that are failing to manage coalition governance effectively and efficiently. This sense of uncertainty was reflected in the markets, with the rand weakening on 24 April 2025, immediately after news of the reversal broke. The recent VAT (Value-Added Tax) reversal has done more than just ease the financial pressure on the poor and middle class – it has revealed deep-seated fault lines within the GNU and exposed the complex game of political chess playing out behind the scenes.

On paper, the VAT reversal and the subsequent court order, may seem like a win for the people. In practice, it is a political battlefield littered with strategic retreats, pyrrhic victories, and emerging new power blocs.

DA gaining ground

Initially, the ANC found itself cornered. With the DA and other GNU partners refusing to support the budget unless the VAT hike was scrapped, it became clear that the proposed tax increase was a hurdle too high – not just for the GNU, but for the broader political consensus. The ANC, however, understood a deeper political cost: handing the VAT victory to the DA would elevate its opponent’s image at a critical time, especially as we are nearing the 2026 local government elections. More specifically, the DA is gaining traction in the eyes of black voters increasingly disillusioned by economic hardship over political ideology and past loyalties. There can be no doubt that contemporary politics are affected by bread-and-butter issues, or simply put, economic conditions shape electoral outcomes.

Recent polling by the Institute of Race Relations showed the DA gaining ground, jumping from 5% to 18% support among black voters – a shift too significant to ignore. For the ANC, the solution was tactical: stage a strategic retreat by allowing Action SA to negotiate and back the budget from outside the GNU framework. This move let the ANC save face while avoiding the political optics of gifting the DA a much-needed symbolic victory.

Yet, this decision only sparked a new political tussle as tensions rise over who really “won” the VAT battle. For the ANC, its stance on VAT denialism – along with the impact on an already struggling middle class, including those in the "missing middle" and the poor – represents not just a political setback but has also damaged the party’s image in the hearts and minds of an electorate struggling to put food on the table. 

Though reigning supreme after the court order the DA may find itself in greater isolation. Helen Zille, Federal Council Chairperson of the DA, hailed the party’s legal pressure as the reason the VAT increase was overturned, declaring that it had “broken the back” of the VAT onslaught on the struggling middle class and poor. The court order allowed the DA and EFF to position themselves as the “defenders of the people”. But specifically, in the DA and the GNU context, claiming sole victory has isolated the party from the coalition’s broader political landscape – undermining the notion of collective decision-making and shared success that underpin the GNU and coalition governance in general. But in doing so, the DA may have overplayed its hand to the detriment of becoming the future formateur. By engaging solely with the ANC, the DA has committed a cardinal sin of coalition politics – where both allies and adversaries should be kept in close proximity, given the fluid and dynamic nature of coalition governance.

A new, unofficial GNU forming?

Action SA was quick to respond, accusing the DA of unjustly claiming sole credit for what was, in truth, a collective effort. Echoing this sentiment, Kenny Kunene, deputy president of the Patriotic Alliance, dismissed the DA’s so-called “VAT victory” as both hypocritical and disingenuous – an act of political grandstanding aimed purely at securing votes. Beneath these pointed rebukes lies a deeper reality: the DA’s much-touted win may be little more than a mirage – a false victory that risks pushing the party further towards the political periphery.

Evidence of this political sidelining was on full display at the joint media briefing on the VAT reversal. Absent from the event were the DA and the Vryheidsfront Plus (VF+). Present, however, were the ANC, IFP, ActionSA, Rise Mzansi, BOSA, UDM, AL-Jama-ah, PA, Pan Africanist Congress, and the GOOD Party. The optics were undeniable: a new, unofficial GNU appears to be forming – with Action SA stepping forward as the “new kid on the block”. Subsequently, this has positioned ActionSA as a new “kingmaker”, significantly diminishing the DA’s influence within the GNU. In effect, this surplus majority coalition stands in contrast to a minimum winning coalition, which would have made the GNU more dependent on the DA. This unofficial reconfiguration signals a weakening of the DA’s leverage and suggests that the GNU could now remain intact without the DA – ushering in a new phase of political dynamics.

As this alternative coalition quietly takes shape, the DA must reflect on whether its victory was worth the cost. In politics, as in chess, taking a pawn can sometimes lose you the game. 

The way forward for the GNU: lessons learned?