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18 March 2019 | Story Rulanzen Martin | Photo Rulanzen Martin
Rapport Regstreeks
From the left: Dr Ina Gouws, Dr Sethulego Matebesi, Dr Ebrahim Fakir, and Waldimar Pelser, who facilitated the panel discussion on the upcoming national elections.

Since the national elections of 2014 five years ago, several issues have occurred that could have an impact on the upcoming elections. A panel consisting of Dr Ina Gouws from the Department of Governance and Political Transformation, Dr Sethulego Matebesi from the Department of Sociology – both at the University of the Free State (UFS), and Dr Ebrahim Fakir from Governance Institutions and Processes at the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa, talked about these and other issues.

The panel discussion, facilitated by Waldimar Pelser, editor of Rapport, took place at the UFS on 8 March 2019. Rapport Regstreeks is presented by kykNET and Rapport.

Three factors that can handicap ruling party

“Does the ruling party have anything to be worried about?” Pelser asked, getting straight to the point. “Yes. The ruling party has a lot to be worried about. The reason for this is that voter participation has declined; secondly, there is definitely a management problem which resulted in a credibility crisis in the government; and lastly, the ANC is trying to keep people together who do not believe in the same issues,” Dr Fakir was the first to reply.

The issues mentioned by Dr Fakir have been a problem before. “Since 2016 there has been a lot of division within the ANC,” Dr Gouws said. “These divisions can have a huge impact on the outcome of the election. The divisions were exposed even more by the Nenegate situation, and the ANC could no longer manage it."

The fact that the ANC lost control over four of the major metros in the 2016 local elections must be worrying to them.

Zondo Commission and opposition parties

The Zondo Commission, with its appalling revelations has uncovered the magnitude of state capture and the shocking testimonies that have emerged, could possibly hamper the ANC in the elections. “Political parties have supporters, regardless of internal problems. Loyal party members will still vote for their parties,” said Dr Matebesi. “The promise of RDP houses before an election is the bread and butter of many voters; therefore, they will vote ANC again.”

With the rise of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the support base of the ANC has also dwindled. “If there is one party with a colonial mentality, it is the EFF. They are undermining democracy, thrive on divisions in society and exploit them,” said Dr Fakir. “They jump in on many issues for their own gain,” Dr Gouws added.

As for the Democratic Alliance (DA), Dr Gouws said its governance is ‘fantastic’ compared to the ANC, although not always 100%. “Problems were however highlighted – it is not 100% and I think they should attend to the problems.”

News Archive

Census 2011 overshadowed by vuvuzela announcements
2012-11-20

Mike Schüssler, economist
Photo: Hannes Pieterse
15 November 2012

Census 2011 contains good statistics but these are overshadowed by vuvuzela announcements and a selective approach, economist Mike Schüssler said at a presentation at the UFS.

“Why highlight one inequality and not another success factor? Is Government that negative about itself?” Mr Schüssler, owner of Economist.co.za, asked.

“Why is all the good news such as home ownership, water, lights, cars, cellphones, etc. put on the back burner? For example, we have more rooms than people in our primary residence. Data shows that a third of Africans have a second home. Why are some statistics that are racially based not made available, e.g. orphans? So are “bad” statistics not always presented?”

He highlighted statistics that did not get the necessary attention in the media. One such statistic is that black South Africans earn 46% of all income compared to 39% of whites. The census also showed that black South Africans fully own nearly ten times the amount of houses that whites do. Another statistic is that black South Africans are the only population group to have a younger median age. “This is against worldwide trends and in all likelihood has to do with AIDS. It is killing black South Africans more than other race groups.”

Mr Schüssler also gave insight into education. He said education does count when earnings are taken into account. “I could easily say that the average degree earns nearly five times more than a matric and the average matric earns twice the pay of a grade 11.”

He also mentioned that people lie in surveys. On the expenditure side he said, “People apparently do not admit that they gamble or drink or smoke when asked. They also do not eat out but when looking at industry and sector sales, this is exposed and the CPI is, for example, reweighted. They forget their food expenditure and brag about their cars. They seemingly spend massively on houses but little on maintenance. They spend more than they earn.”

“On income, the lie is that people forget or do not know the difference between gross and net salaries. People forget garnishee orders, loan repayments and certainly do not have an idea what companies pay on their behalf to pensions and medical aid. People want to keep getting social grants so they are more motivated to forget income. People are scared of taxes too so they lower income when asked. They spend more than they earn in many categories.”

On household assets Mr Schüssler said South Africans are asset rich but income poor. Over 8,3 million black African families stay in brick or concrete houses out of a total of 11,2 million total. About 4,9 million black families own their own home fully while only 502 000 whites do (fully paid off or nearly ten times more black families own their own homes fully). Just over 880 000 black South Africans are paying off their homes while 518 000 white families are.

Other interesting statistics are that 13,2 million people work, 22,5 million have bank accounts, 19,6 million have credit records. Thirty percent of households have cars, 90% of households have cellphones and 80% of households have TVs.
 

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