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Chaos is a Gift? Leading Oneself in Uncertain and Complex Environments

26 August 2020 | Story Nitha Ramnath | Photo Supplied

A VUCA environment reflects a state of the external world, or external to the leader, community, or nation, as much as it seems to reflect an internal frame of mind. The constant pressure to lead, while being uncertain about the outcomes of your decisions and even fearful of not being in control all the time, are some of the hallmarks of a VUCA world. A good way of thinking about this concept is to view it as the ‘new narrative’ – the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity inherent in today’s world.

Leaders in the 21st century need to steer a country securely through unparalleled, challenging, and stormy circumstances such as food insecurity, political unrest, migration and refugee issues, unemployment, divided societies and prejudice, global warming, and others. Against this introduction, it unfortunately appears as if there is an increase in VUCA problems in the 21st century, and leaders often fail in their attempts to provide solutions to these demanding circumstances. Indeed, it appears as if leaders in the 21st century are actually contributing to VUCA environments. So-called ‘state capture’ and the ‘gangster state’ in South Africa, ‘make America great again’ and ‘America first’ , the Brexit no-deal option, ‘trade wars’, and ‘the deadly coronavirus’ are examples of when leaders did not appear to solve challenges, but rather to intensify them.

This is the backdrop against which the book, Chaos is a Gift? Leading Oneself in Uncertain and Complex Environments, has been conceptualised – indeed to debate the opportunities that exist amid this chaos.

Three UFS women academics contributed to this book.

Dr Martha Harunavamwe (Department of Industrial Psychology) has written a chapter on resilience and agility in Zimbabwean higher education.Dr Mareve Biljohn (Department of Public Administration and Management) has written a chapter on leading the self in South Africa’s VUCA local government environments. Prof Liezel Lues (Department of Public Administration and Management) has written a chapter on South Africa’s surviving VUCA environment. She is also one of the editors of the book.

The endorsement written by Prof Petersen, reads: There are various books on leadership, but this book, in navigating today’s volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) environment, presents chaos as both an opportunity and possibility in developing ‘selfcare practices’ in leading oneself. Leaders must have the cognitive flexibility to adapt to the unknown in the midst of chaos (and a crisis). Through making sense of leadership approaches in different environments, including the business, private, academic and public sectors, as well as in conflict/post-conflict situations, the book provides a deep insight into leading oneself effectively with innovation and empathy in a VUCA environment – an excellent contribution to self-leadership. (Francis Petersen, Rector and Vice-Chancellor: Top Management, University of the Free State)

The book, published by KR Publishers, will be launched on 27 August 2020. Prof Ebben van Zyl, together with Prof Lues, are the editors of this book: Van Zyl, E, Campbell, A and Lues, L. ed. Chaos is a Gift? Leading Oneself in Uncertain and Complex Environments. Randburg: KR Publishing. ISBN: 978-1-86922-860-6

News Archive

Inaugural lecture: Prof André Pelser

2004-06-04

Tendencies and changes in the South African population structure in future decades.

Within the next five years South Africa will for the first time in the past century enter a period where the death rate will exceed the birth rate, largely due to the impact of HIV / AIDS.

According to sociologist Prof André Pelser, sociologist at the of the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Department of Sociology, the death rate exceeding the birthrate is only one of three demographic trends which will fundamentally change South Africa’s population structure in the following decades.

He was speaking at the UFS in Bloemfontein during his inaugural lecture as professor this week.

Prof Pelser said that according to some models the South African population will decrease within the next five decades by between 10 and 26 percent.

A second important trend which will impact on the population structure is the progressive ageing of the population.

He said the group above 65 years is the only age category in the South African population which will witness sharp increases in the next few decades.

In the next 50 years, the group younger than 15 years will reflect a decrease of 39% and those older than 65 years in South Africa will increase by approximately 110% in the next two decades.

“The systematic “greying” of the South African population will create the same economic and welfare issues as those with which governments in some more developed countries are already grappling,” said Prof Pelser.

A third trend affecting the South African population structure is the constant decrease in life expectancy.

Life expectancy at birth for the total population is projected to decrease from approximately 62 years at the beginning of the 1990’s to 43 years in 2015-2020, with sharp differences between the various population groups.

These tendencies and changes to the South African population structure have serious implications, he said.

For example, he said, the reduction in life expectancy could compromise national development objectives.

“It is estimated that more than a quarter of the economically active population will be infected with HIV by 2006,” said Prof Pelser.

The increase in the population, in age category 65, will place a financial burden on government and the economically active sector.

“Especially worrying is the fact that ever-increasing proportions of the state budget will be allocated to health and welfare services and this at the expense of other priorities like education, infrastructure, criminal justice system and trade and industry, to name but a few,” he said

“A comprehensive and integrated strategy is thus vitally important in addressing the overarching issues caused by changes in the population structure,” said Prof Pelser.

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