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26 August 2020 | Story Nitha Ramnath | Photo Supplied

A VUCA environment reflects a state of the external world, or external to the leader, community, or nation, as much as it seems to reflect an internal frame of mind. The constant pressure to lead, while being uncertain about the outcomes of your decisions and even fearful of not being in control all the time, are some of the hallmarks of a VUCA world. A good way of thinking about this concept is to view it as the ‘new narrative’ – the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity inherent in today’s world.

Leaders in the 21st century need to steer a country securely through unparalleled, challenging, and stormy circumstances such as food insecurity, political unrest, migration and refugee issues, unemployment, divided societies and prejudice, global warming, and others. Against this introduction, it unfortunately appears as if there is an increase in VUCA problems in the 21st century, and leaders often fail in their attempts to provide solutions to these demanding circumstances. Indeed, it appears as if leaders in the 21st century are actually contributing to VUCA environments. So-called ‘state capture’ and the ‘gangster state’ in South Africa, ‘make America great again’ and ‘America first’ , the Brexit no-deal option, ‘trade wars’, and ‘the deadly coronavirus’ are examples of when leaders did not appear to solve challenges, but rather to intensify them. 

This is the backdrop against which the book, Chaos is a Gift? Leading Oneself in Uncertain and Complex Environments, has been conceptualised – indeed to debate the opportunities that exist amid this chaos. 

Three UFS women academics contributed to this book.

Dr Martha Harunavamwe (Department of Industrial Psychology) has written a chapter on resilience and agility in Zimbabwean higher education.Dr Mareve Biljohn (Department of Public Administration and Management) has written a chapter on leading the self in South Africa’s VUCA local government environments. Prof Liezel Lues (Department of Public Administration and Management) has written a chapter on South Africa’s surviving VUCA environment. She is also one of the editors of the book.

The endorsement written by Prof Petersen, reads: There are various books on leadership, but this book, in navigating today’s volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) environment, presents chaos as both an opportunity and possibility in developing ‘selfcare practices’ in leading oneself. Leaders must have the cognitive flexibility to adapt to the unknown in the midst of chaos (and a crisis). Through making sense of leadership approaches in different environments, including the business, private, academic and public sectors, as well as in conflict/post-conflict situations, the book provides a deep insight into leading oneself effectively with innovation and empathy in a VUCA environment – an excellent contribution to self-leadership. (Francis Petersen, Rector and Vice-Chancellor: Top Management, University of the Free State)

The book, published by KR Publishers, will be launched on 27 August 2020. Prof Ebben van Zyl, together with Prof Lues, are the editors of this book: Van Zyl, E, Campbell, A and Lues, L. ed. Chaos is a Gift? Leading Oneself in Uncertain and Complex Environments. Randburg: KR Publishing. ISBN: 978-1-86922-860-6

News Archive

Harvard couple to present lectures on Biostatistics and Mathematics at the UFS
2015-12-07


Professor Donald Rubin

Prof Donald Rubin (John L. Loeb Professor of Statistics at Harvard University) and Elizabeth Zell (MStat - mathematical statistician in the Division of Bacterial Diseases) will visit the University of the Free State (UFS) where they will present lectures on their respective work.

Over his prestigious academic career, Prof Don Rubin’s 400 publications and 13 books have earned him around 180 000 citations at an h-index of 113. He is one of the most cited statisticians/mathematicians/economists/psychologists in the world over the last 10 -15 years. He has supervised 35 PhD candidates as sole-supervisor, 17 more as co-supervisor, with a further eight in the pipeline.

Prof Rubin who will meet with UFS academics in the Department of Mathematics and Actuarial Sciences will also deliver a lecture: Rerandomisation to improve covariate balance in experiments.

Randomised experiments are the “gold standard” for estimating causal effects, yet in practice, chance imbalances often exist in covariate distributions between treatment groups. If covariate data are available before units are exposed to treatments, these chance imbalances can be mitigated by first checking covariate balance before the physical experiment takes place. Provided a precise definition of imbalance has been specified in advance, unbalanced randomisations can be discarded, followed by a rerandomisation. This process can continue until a randomisation yielding balance according to the definition is achieved. By improving covariate balance, rerandomisation provides more precise and trustworthy estimates of treatment effects.

Prof Rubin received an honorary professorship from the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences at the UFS.


Elizabeth Zell

The lecture will take place on:
Date: Tuesday 8 December 2015
Time: 16:00
Venue: Albert Wessels Auditorium, Bloemfontein Campus

Zell earned her Master’s degree in Statistics at North Carolina State University, and for more than two decades, was an active bio-statistical researcher in various offices of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Since 2013, she has been the Principal Statistician and President of Stat-Epi Associates, Inc. Her 150+ publications have earned her 14 500 citations at an h-index of over 50. She is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, and, in 2010, she received the Statistics Section Government Award for outstanding contributions to statistics and public health by the American Public Health Association. During her career at the CDC, she earned more than 20 CDC research awards and honours.

She will deliver two lectures at the UFS. The first is entitled A Potential Outcomes Approach to Documenting the Public Health Impact of the Introduction of PCV13 for the Prevention of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease. The topic of her second lecture is: Assessing the Effectiveness of Intrapartum Antibiotic Prophylaxis for Prevention of Early-Onset Group B Streptococcus Disease through Propensity Score Design

Elizabeth’s lectures will take place on:
Date: Wednesday 9 December 2015
Time: 10:45 and 13:00
Venue: West Block 111, Bloemfontein Campus

For more information, please contact Dr Michael von Maltitz at VMaltitzMJ@ufs.ac.za.

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