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COVID-19: Experts warn against complacency and potential of second wave

14 August 2020 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Supplied

Thought leader series read more — Max du Preez, Editor: Vrye Weekblad (top left), was the facilitator was the facilitator for Thursday’s UFS Though-Leader webinar that included Prof Salim Abdool Karim, Director: Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA) and Chair: South African Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19 (top right); Prof Glenda Gray, President and CEO: South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) (bottom left); and Prof Felicity Burt from the UFS and NRF-DST South African Research Chair in Vector-borne and Zoonotic Pathogens Research (bottom right), participated in Thursday’s Though-Leader webinar.

Although the decline in COVID-19 cases is a promising sign for South Africa, there are concerns about a second surge, and the country should not become complacent.

This was the opinion of the three experts who took part in the first Thought-Leader webinar presented by the University of the Free State (UFS) on Thursday, 13 August. The 2020 UFS Thought-Leader Webinar Series, themed 'Post-COVID-19, Post-Crisis', is taking place in collaboration with Vrye Weekblad as part of the Vrystaat Literature Festival’s online initiative, VrySpraak-digitaal.

The panellists included top experts such as Prof Salim Abdool Karim, Director: Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA) and Chair: South African Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19; Prof Glenda Gray, President and CEO: South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC); and the UFS’ Prof Felicity Burt, NRF-DST South African Research Chair in Vector-borne and Zoonotic Pathogens Research.

Prof Karim said the downward decline is consistent and the number of patients presenting at hospitals is also declining.

Promising trend of decline

“What we are seeing is a promising trend, and it looks like we are on the decline. A question that I am often asked is: Is the worst over? The answer is not clear-cut. We are concerned about the risk of a second surge. If anything – what really concerns me at this stage is a second surge, as I think about how the pandemic may play out over the next few weeks,” said Prof Karim.

He also referred to countries such as the US, Spain, New Zealand, Vietnam, and South Korea, which are now facing a second surge.

“We need to be very careful; this is not the time for complacency. We need to maintain all our efforts. If we look at one of the key drivers, it is the need for our economy to restart. We need to get people back to work,” said Prof Karim.

According to him, we have to look at COVID-19 not as a sprint, but as a marathon. “As we learn to co-exist with this virus, aim for containment; we need to plan for the long term. Even if we get a vaccine, it is unlikely that we will be able to vaccinate a substantial part of our population before the end of next year.”

“We need to transition from being scared to a situation where we can control our risk. When we know that we can control the risk and then influence the risk, we influence the risk of everyone around us. Part of the new normal is the strategy of mitigation with prevention, plus preventing outbreaks.”

Schools and vaccine development

Prof Gray spoke about whether schools should be open and the role that children play in transmission, how to avoid the second wave, how to adjust our testing, and the exciting news around vaccine development.

As a paediatrician and a parent, Prof Gray said she believes schools should open. “Children have a different immune response to COVID-19. They have different immune responses to Coronavirus and they probably have less viral-load copies which makes them have milder diseases. They are lucky to have been spared from symptomatic or severe disease,” said Prof Gray.

According to her, schools need to be de-risked as much as possible, with children and teachers wearing masks, washing hands, making sure that there is good ventilation in the school and that windows are wide open.

“We also need to know about the comorbidity and ages of teachers, so that we can keep the sick and older teachers out of direct contact. The younger teachers with no comorbidities should be teaching.

“We also know from our experiences with health workers that transmissions happen in the tearoom where teachers take off their masks and talk. We need to minimise the transmissions in tearooms and protect teachers and parents who are older and have comorbidities.”

Prof Gray said from data she has seen, schools play a very small role in the transmission of COVID-19; a lot more (transmissions) happen in the community, by commuting, and overcrowded taxis.

Prof Gray agreed with Prof Karim that we should be concerned about a second wave, and that we need to make sure community transmissions are minimised.

Regarding a vaccine, Prof Gray said a global race is on to find a vaccine. “The more vaccines the better, we want more vaccines to work. The more vaccines, the more affordable they are, and the more doses are available.”

One health approach

During her presentation, Prof Burt said the current response to outbreaks is largely reactive rather than proactive, and “if we have more of a one-health approach, with forecasting, early detection, and a more rapid response, we could have an impact on public health in the future”.

News Archive

African Student Affairs Conference a huge success

2011-05-24

Mr Rudi Buys, UFS Dean of Student Affairs, Mr. Folabi Obembe, Managing Director of Worldview International, Ms Birgit Schreiber, Director of the Centre for Student support services at the University of the Western Cape, Dr. Augustinah Duyilemi, Dean of Student Affairs at the Adekunleh Ajasin University in Nigeria, Dr. Christina Lunceford, assistant Director for the Centre for Research on Educational Access and Leadership at California State University in America, and Prof. Cecil Bodibe, student affairs veteran and consultant.
Photo: Earl Coetzee

The African Student Affairs Conference (ASAC), which took place on our Main Campus last week, was a major success, with two days of lectures and discussions and two pleasant social gatherings, where delegates had the opportunity to get to know each other.

The conference, hosted on African soil for the first time, and co-hosted by the University of the Western Cape (UWC), started on Wednesday 18 May 2011 with an informal welcoming session. Delegates got to meet each other and Mr Rudi Buys, UFS Dean of Student Affairs, explained the meaning of South African words like "kuier" and "lekker'.

The official start of events took place on Thursday 19 May 2011, in the Reitz Hall in our Centenary Complex. The conference was attended by delegates from universities across the continent and aimed to place the focus on issues relating to student affairs in an African context.

Delegates shared and exchanged strategies, ideas and resources, and discussed issues related to the work of student affairs professionals. The conference hoped to promote an exchange of best practice and assist attendees in identifying successful programmes.

Among the topics discussed on the first day, were “Constructing Post-Conflict Democracy on campus: a case study of transformation of student governance and political engagement as post-conflict intervention”, by Mr. Buys, and a discussion on ways in which social and online media can be used to ease the challenges of student interaction, development and support, by Ms Birgit Schreiber, Director of the Centre for Student Support Services at UWC.

A panel discussion, led by Mr Buys and several members of our Interim Student Council (ISC), discussed the specific challenges faced at the UFS. The importance of buy-in from role-players in decisions taken by University management in order to ensure their success, was discussed, using the UFS and our recent changes as an example.

The successful integration of residences on campus inevitably came under the spotlight and the recently resolved Reitz-saga was named as a catalyst in getting students less apathetic and more involved in attempts at creating racial and social harmony.

Dr Christina Lunceford, Assistant-Director of the Centre for Research on Educational Access and Leadership at California State University, presented a paper entitled A National Approach to Building Capacity in Student Affairs in South African Higher Education.

She commented on the fact that there is little or no philosophical framework or explicit theory that informs practice of student services in South Africa.

According to Dr Lunceford, student development should be a key concern for every department or unit within student services and emphasized the need for a centralized student development unit at each university.
She also touched on the need for institutions to implement support from international student affairs professional associations, professional development for student affairs practitioners, the utilization of technology to support professionals in the field, and working with international partners to explore future opportunities, as ways in which student affairs can be used to drive performance and change at universities.

The conference continued in the Scaena theatre on Friday 20 May 2011, with presentations by Dr Augustinah Duyileme, Dean of Student Affairs at Adekunle Ajasin University in Nigeria, and Prof. Bobby Mandew, Executive Director of Student Affairs at the University of Johannesburg (UJ).

Dr Duyileme presented a paper on the challenges faced by Nigerian universities with regard to student conflict and protests, which often turn violent, and how such violence can be curbed through proper planning and management.

Prof. Mandew presented a very well-received presentation on UJ’s successful off-campus housing initiative, which involves home-owners and business owners in the areas surrounding their campuses.

Their approach demonstrated how proper planning can prevent problems associated with over-population in private homes and conflict with neighbours of the university, usually related to an influx of students into residential neighbourhoods.

This problem is faced by many universities, as more and more students flock to universities on the continent and campus residents cannot accommodate them.

The conference came to a close on Friday, with most delegates agreeing that the exchange of knowledge which took place was extremely valuable.

Ms Deborah Lahlan, of Nigeria, said: “This is an important conference for Africa and it should become a regular event.”

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