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COVID-19: Experts warn against complacency and potential of second wave

14 August 2020 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Supplied

Thought leader series read more — Max du Preez, Editor: Vrye Weekblad (top left), was the facilitator was the facilitator for Thursday’s UFS Though-Leader webinar that included Prof Salim Abdool Karim, Director: Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA) and Chair: South African Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19 (top right); Prof Glenda Gray, President and CEO: South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) (bottom left); and Prof Felicity Burt from the UFS and NRF-DST South African Research Chair in Vector-borne and Zoonotic Pathogens Research (bottom right), participated in Thursday’s Though-Leader webinar.

Although the decline in COVID-19 cases is a promising sign for South Africa, there are concerns about a second surge, and the country should not become complacent.

This was the opinion of the three experts who took part in the first Thought-Leader webinar presented by the University of the Free State (UFS) on Thursday, 13 August. The 2020 UFS Thought-Leader Webinar Series, themed 'Post-COVID-19, Post-Crisis', is taking place in collaboration with Vrye Weekblad as part of the Vrystaat Literature Festival’s online initiative, VrySpraak-digitaal.

The panellists included top experts such as Prof Salim Abdool Karim, Director: Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA) and Chair: South African Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19; Prof Glenda Gray, President and CEO: South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC); and the UFS’ Prof Felicity Burt, NRF-DST South African Research Chair in Vector-borne and Zoonotic Pathogens Research.

Prof Karim said the downward decline is consistent and the number of patients presenting at hospitals is also declining.

Promising trend of decline

“What we are seeing is a promising trend, and it looks like we are on the decline. A question that I am often asked is: Is the worst over? The answer is not clear-cut. We are concerned about the risk of a second surge. If anything – what really concerns me at this stage is a second surge, as I think about how the pandemic may play out over the next few weeks,” said Prof Karim.

He also referred to countries such as the US, Spain, New Zealand, Vietnam, and South Korea, which are now facing a second surge.

“We need to be very careful; this is not the time for complacency. We need to maintain all our efforts. If we look at one of the key drivers, it is the need for our economy to restart. We need to get people back to work,” said Prof Karim.

According to him, we have to look at COVID-19 not as a sprint, but as a marathon. “As we learn to co-exist with this virus, aim for containment; we need to plan for the long term. Even if we get a vaccine, it is unlikely that we will be able to vaccinate a substantial part of our population before the end of next year.”

“We need to transition from being scared to a situation where we can control our risk. When we know that we can control the risk and then influence the risk, we influence the risk of everyone around us. Part of the new normal is the strategy of mitigation with prevention, plus preventing outbreaks.”

Schools and vaccine development

Prof Gray spoke about whether schools should be open and the role that children play in transmission, how to avoid the second wave, how to adjust our testing, and the exciting news around vaccine development.

As a paediatrician and a parent, Prof Gray said she believes schools should open. “Children have a different immune response to COVID-19. They have different immune responses to Coronavirus and they probably have less viral-load copies which makes them have milder diseases. They are lucky to have been spared from symptomatic or severe disease,” said Prof Gray.

According to her, schools need to be de-risked as much as possible, with children and teachers wearing masks, washing hands, making sure that there is good ventilation in the school and that windows are wide open.

“We also need to know about the comorbidity and ages of teachers, so that we can keep the sick and older teachers out of direct contact. The younger teachers with no comorbidities should be teaching.

“We also know from our experiences with health workers that transmissions happen in the tearoom where teachers take off their masks and talk. We need to minimise the transmissions in tearooms and protect teachers and parents who are older and have comorbidities.”

Prof Gray said from data she has seen, schools play a very small role in the transmission of COVID-19; a lot more (transmissions) happen in the community, by commuting, and overcrowded taxis.

Prof Gray agreed with Prof Karim that we should be concerned about a second wave, and that we need to make sure community transmissions are minimised.

Regarding a vaccine, Prof Gray said a global race is on to find a vaccine. “The more vaccines the better, we want more vaccines to work. The more vaccines, the more affordable they are, and the more doses are available.”

One health approach

During her presentation, Prof Burt said the current response to outbreaks is largely reactive rather than proactive, and “if we have more of a one-health approach, with forecasting, early detection, and a more rapid response, we could have an impact on public health in the future”.

News Archive

Researchers international leaders in satellite tracking in the wildlife environment

2015-05-29

Ground-breaking research has attracted international media attention to Francois Deacon, lecturer and researcher in the Department Animal, Wildlife and Grassland Sciences at the UFS, and Prof Nico Smit, from the same department. They are the first researchers in the world to equip giraffes with GPS collars, and to conduct research on this initiative. Recently, they have been joined by Hennie Butler from the Department of Zoology as well as Free State Nature Conservation to further this research.

“Satellite tracking is proving to be extremely valuable in the wildlife environment. The unit is based on a mobile global two-way communication platform, utilising two-way data satellite communication, complete with GPS systems.

“It allows us to track animals day and night, while we monitor their movements remotely from the computer. These systems make possible the efficient control and monitoring of wildlife in all weather conditions and in near-to-real time. We can even communicate with the animals, calling up their positions or changing the tracking schedules.

“The satellite collar allows us to use the extremely accurate data to conduct research with the best technology available. The volume of data received allows us to publish the data in scientific journals and research-related articles.

“Scientific institutions and the public sector have both shown great interest in satellite tracking, which opens up new ground for scientific research for this university. Data management can be done, using Africa Wildlife Tracking (AWT) equipment where we can access our data personally, store it, and make visual presentations. The AWT system and software architecture provide the researcher with asset tracking, GPS location reports, geo-fencing, highly-detailed custom mapping, history reports and playback, polling on demand, history plotting on maps, and a range of reporting types and functions,” Francois said.

Data can be analysed to determine home range, dispersal, or habitat preference for any specific species.

Francois has been involved in multiple research projects over the last 12 years on wildlife species and domesticated animals, including the collaring of species such as Black-backed Jackal, Caracal, African Wild Dog, Hyena, Lion, Cheetah, Cattle, Kudu, Giraffe, and Black Rhino: “Giraffe definitely being the most challenging of all,” he said.

In 2010, he started working on his PhD, entitled The spatial ecology, habitat preferences and diet selection of giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis giraffa) in the Kalahari region of South Africa.

Since then, his work has resulted not only in more research work (supervising four Masters students) but also in a number of national and international projects. These include work in the:

Kalahari region (e.g. Khamab Nature Reserve and Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park)
Kuruman region (Collared 18 cattle to identify spatial patterns in relation to the qualities of vegetation and soil-types available. This project took place in collaboration with Born University in Germany)
Woodland Hills Wildlife Estate and Kolomella Iron Ore – ecological monitoring
A number of Free State nature reserves (e.g. Distribution of herbivores (kudu and giraffe) and predators (camera traps)

Francois is also involved with species breeding programmes and management (giraffe, buffalo, sable, roan, and rhino) in Korrannaberg, Rustenburg, Hertzogville, Douglas, and Bethlehem as well as animal and ecological monitoring in Kolomella and Beesthoek iron ore.

Besides the collaring of giraffes, Francois and his colleagues are involved in national projects, where they collect milk from lactating giraffes and DNA material, blood samples, and ecto/endo parasites from giraffes in Southern Africa.

With international projects, Francois is working to collect DNA material for the classification of the nine sub-species of giraffe in Africa. He is also involved in projects focusing on the spatial ecology and adaptation of giraffe in Uganda (Murchison Falls), and to save the last 30 giraffe in the DRC- Garamba National Park.

This project has attracted a good deal of international interest. In June 2014, a US film crew (freelancing for Discovery Channel) filmed a documentary on Francois’ research (trailer of documentary). Early in 2015, a second crew, filming for National Geographic, also visited Francois to document his work.

More information about Francois’ work is available at the GCF website.

Read Francois Deacon's PhD abstract

Direct enquiries to news@ufs.ac.za.

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