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Developing models to predict patient outcomes in children with severe illness

28 December 2020 | Story André Damons | Photo Supplied

A lecturer from the University of the Free State’s (UFS) department of Paediatrics and Child Health is investigating the use of artificial neural networks to develop models for the prediction of patient outcomes in children with severe illness.

Dr Michael Pienaar, senior lecturer and specialist, is conducting this research as part of his doctoral research and the study deals primarily with the development of models that are designed and calibrated for use in South Africa. These artificial neural networks are computer programs designed to mimic some of the learning characteristics of biological neurons.

The potential applications of models

According to Dr Pienaar these models have traditionally been developed in high-income nations using conventional statistical methods.

“The potential applications of such models in the clinical setting include triage, medical research, guidance of resource allocation and quality control. Having initially begun this research investigating the prediction of mortality outcomes in the paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) I have broadened my scope to patients outside of PICU, seeking to identify children early during their illnesses who are at risk of serious illness requiring PICU,” says Dr Pienaar.

The research up until now has been directed towards the identification of characteristics that are both unique to children with serious illness in South Africa, but also accessible to clinicians in settings where expertise and technical resources are limited.

Research still in the early changes

The research is still in its early stages but next year a series of expert review panels will be held to investigate the selection of variables for the model, after which the collection of clinical data will begin. Once the data has been collected and prepared, a number of candidate models will be developed and evaluated. This should be concluded by the end of 2022.

Says Dr Pienaar: “The need to engage with the rapid proliferation of technology, particularly in the realms of machine learning, mobile technology, automation and the Internet of Things is as great in medical research now as it is in any academic discipline.

“It is critical that research, particularly in South Africa, engage with this in order to take advantage of the opportunities offered and avoid the dangers that go paired with them. Together with the technology as such, it has been essential to pursue this project as an interdisciplinary undertaking involving clinicians, biostatisticians and computer engineers.”

Hope for the research

Dr Pienaar says he was very fortunate and grateful to be the recipient of a generous interdisciplinary grant from the UFS which has allowed him to procure software and equipment that is critical to this project.

“The hope for this research is that the best performing of these models can be integrated with a mobile application that assists practitioners in a wide range of settings in the identification, treatment and early referral of children at high risk of severe illness. I would like to expand this research project to include other countries in Africa and South America and to use it as a bridge to collaboration with other clinical researchers in the Global South,” says Dr Pienaar.

As an early career researcher, Dr Pienaar hopes that this research can serve as a platform to build a body of research that uses the rapid technological advances of these times together with a wide range of collaborations with other disciplines in the pursuit of better child health.

He concludes by saying that he has had excellent support thus far from his supervisors, Prof Stephen Brown (Faculty of Health Sciences, UFS), Dr Nicolaas Luwes (Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering, Central University of Technology) and Dr Elizabeth George (Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit, University College London). I have also been supported by the Robert Frater Institute in the Faculty of Health Sciences.

News Archive

Student leaders 2012/13 announced

2012-08-30

Ready for the task - Sabelo Khumalo, SRC President of the Qwaqwa Campus and William Clayton, SRC President of the Bloemfontein Campus.
Photo: Johan Roux
31 August 2012

The 2012/13 elections for the Student Representative Councils (SRC) of the University of the Free State were completed successfully and show meaningful support for the changes in student governance adopted by students across campuses over the past two years.

The SRC elections at the Qwaqwa Campus were completed on 23 August 2012, while the elections at our Bloemfontein Campus took place on 27 and 28 August 2012.

The SRC Elections at our Bloemfontein Campus showed a voter turnout of 4516 votes (30.8%), with the elections at the Qwaqwa Campuses showing 1753 votes (46%) – both campuses reached the required quorums and the IEA (Bloemfontein Campus) and IEC (Qwaqwa Campus) declared the elections free and fair and announced the results as a true reflection of the will of the student bodies at the campuses.

The full SRC at Bloemfontein Campus now consists of 62% black and 38% white, and 53% female and 47% male members.

In the Qwaqwa elections, SADESMO achieved 46, 38% of the vote, with SASCO, PASMA and NASMO each achieving 30,23% and 8,39% and 14,26%, respectively.

The successful elections at Bloemfontein Campus show that the detailed transformation of student governance introduced by students at the Campus in 2010 and adopted by the university in 2011, succeeded in mobilizing greater participation of students in governance and representation. These changes in the main included a shift to independent candidacy for elective portfolios (12 seats) and organizational candidacy in nine sub-councils that holds ex officio seats on the SRC. Changes also included the establishment of student representative seats in faculty governance and management forums and the adoption of a reviewed Central SRC Constitution. Ex officio seats hold full and equal constitutional authority in the SRC.

Students at Qwaqwa Campus introduced additional portfolios to its SRC, including ex-officio seats for academic affairs, arts and culture, commuter students, Rag Community Service, religious affairs, residences and sports.

A joint sitting of the Campus SRCs will establish the Central SRC 2012/13 on 9 September 2012.

As a further opportunity for participation in and the development of student governance and representation, the current Central SRC herewith also announces its recent adoption of a student governance advisory programme, namely the UFS Student Elders Council (SEC).

The SEC is established as a combined programme between the Central SRC and the Dean of Student Affairs and will consist of selected senior student leaders from all campuses who completed their terms of office, apply and are appointed to the Elders Council by the Central SRC.

The Council will serve as an advisory structure to the Central SRC and other student structures in support of the continuous development of student governance and representation of the student body at the university.

The SEC will advise the Central SRC to be constituted following the constitution of the respective Campus SRCs.

The SRC members at the Bloemfontein Campus are:

President: Mr William Clayton

Vice-President: Mr Bonolo Thebe

Secretary: Ms Karis-Robin Topkin

Treasurer: Mr Pieter Coetzee

Arts & Culture: Ms Chanmari Erasmus

Accessibility & Student Support: Ms Gene McCaskill

First-generation Students: Ms Tanya Calitz

Legal and Constitutional Affairs: Ms Nokuthula Sithole

Media, Marketing & Liaison: Ms Neo Chere

Sport: Mr Tshepo Moloi

Student Development & Environmental Affairs: Ms Thabisile Mgadi

Transformation: Ms Koketso Mofokeng

Dialogue & Ex officio: Associations Council: Mr Anesu Ruswa

Academic Affairs & Ex officio: Academic Affairs Council: Ms Nombuso Ndlovu

Residence Affairs & Ex officio: Residences Council: Mr Johann Steyn

City Residence Affairs & Ex officio: Commuter Council: Mr Michael van Niekerk

Postgraduate Affairs & Ex officio: Postgraduate Council: Mr Fadeyi Akinsuyi

International Affairs & Ex officio: International Council: Ms Tumelo Moreri

Student Media Affairs & Ex officio: Media Council: Mr Jamal-Dean Grootboom

RAG Community Service & Ex officio: RAG Fundraising Council: Mr Jaco Faul

RAG Community Service & Ex officio: RAG Community Service Council: Ms Keneue Mahloana

The SRC members at the Qwaqwa Campus are:

President General: Mr S Khumalo

Deputy President: Mr P T Lenka

Secretary General: Mr D Khethang

Treasurer General: Mr S I Sithole

Media & Publicity: Mr S N Ntombela

Politics & Transformation: Tbc

Student Development & Evironmental Affairs: Tbc Academic Affairs: Mr T Molawude

Arts & Cultural Affairs: Mr T Nkohli

Off-Campus Students: Mr B Mtshali

RAG, Community Service & Dialogue: Ms S F Mlotya

Religious Affairs: Ms D C Khau

Residence & Catering Affairs: Ms Z Mzolo

Sports Council: Mr S Mngomezulu

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