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Developing models to predict patient outcomes in children with severe illness

28 December 2020 | Story André Damons | Photo Supplied

A lecturer from the University of the Free State’s (UFS) department of Paediatrics and Child Health is investigating the use of artificial neural networks to develop models for the prediction of patient outcomes in children with severe illness.

Dr Michael Pienaar, senior lecturer and specialist, is conducting this research as part of his doctoral research and the study deals primarily with the development of models that are designed and calibrated for use in South Africa. These artificial neural networks are computer programs designed to mimic some of the learning characteristics of biological neurons.

The potential applications of models

According to Dr Pienaar these models have traditionally been developed in high-income nations using conventional statistical methods.

“The potential applications of such models in the clinical setting include triage, medical research, guidance of resource allocation and quality control. Having initially begun this research investigating the prediction of mortality outcomes in the paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) I have broadened my scope to patients outside of PICU, seeking to identify children early during their illnesses who are at risk of serious illness requiring PICU,” says Dr Pienaar.

The research up until now has been directed towards the identification of characteristics that are both unique to children with serious illness in South Africa, but also accessible to clinicians in settings where expertise and technical resources are limited.

Research still in the early changes

The research is still in its early stages but next year a series of expert review panels will be held to investigate the selection of variables for the model, after which the collection of clinical data will begin. Once the data has been collected and prepared, a number of candidate models will be developed and evaluated. This should be concluded by the end of 2022.

Says Dr Pienaar: “The need to engage with the rapid proliferation of technology, particularly in the realms of machine learning, mobile technology, automation and the Internet of Things is as great in medical research now as it is in any academic discipline.

“It is critical that research, particularly in South Africa, engage with this in order to take advantage of the opportunities offered and avoid the dangers that go paired with them. Together with the technology as such, it has been essential to pursue this project as an interdisciplinary undertaking involving clinicians, biostatisticians and computer engineers.”

Hope for the research

Dr Pienaar says he was very fortunate and grateful to be the recipient of a generous interdisciplinary grant from the UFS which has allowed him to procure software and equipment that is critical to this project.

“The hope for this research is that the best performing of these models can be integrated with a mobile application that assists practitioners in a wide range of settings in the identification, treatment and early referral of children at high risk of severe illness. I would like to expand this research project to include other countries in Africa and South America and to use it as a bridge to collaboration with other clinical researchers in the Global South,” says Dr Pienaar.

As an early career researcher, Dr Pienaar hopes that this research can serve as a platform to build a body of research that uses the rapid technological advances of these times together with a wide range of collaborations with other disciplines in the pursuit of better child health.

He concludes by saying that he has had excellent support thus far from his supervisors, Prof Stephen Brown (Faculty of Health Sciences, UFS), Dr Nicolaas Luwes (Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering, Central University of Technology) and Dr Elizabeth George (Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit, University College London). I have also been supported by the Robert Frater Institute in the Faculty of Health Sciences.

News Archive

Another boost for sport at the UFS

2005-10-13

A contract formalizing the appointment of Sports Plan (Pty) Ltd was signed by Prof Verschoor and Mr Morne du Plessis in the historic Main Building of the UFS Bloemfontein campus.

The University of the Free State (UFS) has officially appointed Sports Plan (Pty) Ltd, which has former Springbok rugby captain Morné du Plessis as managing director, to manage its Centre for Exercise and Sport Science Services (CESSS) on the Bloemfontein campus.

According to Prof Teuns Verschoor, Vice-Rector: Academic Operations, the appointment of Sports Plan (Pty) Ltd is another step in the implementation of the UFS’s wide-ranging sport strategy to improve sport facilities and elevate formerly marginalized sports such as soccer, hockey, netball, tennis etc.

Sports Plan (Pty) Ltd is the manager of the Sports Science Institute of South Africa and coordinates and manages the national basketball high-performance programme of SA Basketball, as well as the Boxing Academy on behalf of Boxing South Africa.

“It is also actively involved with the sports plans of several tertiary institutions like that of the University of Johannesburg and the University of Stellenbosch,” said Prof Verschoor.

“Sports Plan (Pty) Ltd was also appointed by the Ministry of Sport and Recreation to manage the allocation of sports codes to high-performance centres and to oversee the allocation of monies received from the National Lottery to these centres – this includes the CESSS at the UFS,” Prof Verschoor added.

In unfolding its national sports plan, the Ministry of Sport and Recreation has already identified the UFS-based CESSS as the high-performance testing centre for the national basketball teams whilst the national boxing teams are also earmarked to be trained at the UFS.

“We are glad to be associated with a company of this stature and look forward to work with them in the further development of sports at the UFS,” said Prof Verschoor.

According to Prof Verschoor, the CESSS will act as a centralised body that is responsible for the coordination and management of joint initiatives between professional service providers, research projects and KovsieSport.

“The centre will also coordinate and manage joint initiatives between various academic programmes in different academic subject fields such as sports medicine, bio kinetics, physiotherapy, dietetics, etc. ,” said Prof Verschoor.

These initiatives will help the UFS to become a centre and catalyst of sports development, to become internationally recognised in the field of exercise and sports science research and to become a centre for high quality sports performance enhancement.

Some of the objectives of the CESSS are:

To provide sports science services like to athletes, students, the general public and other stakeholders including certain national sport teams.
To provide the necessary teaching and training facilities and internship opportunities for UFS students in sports related fields of study will also be provided by the centre like human movement science.
To present skills-transfer programmes directed at the broader community like development of skills in various sporting codes.
To continue and extend the current chronic risk reversal programmes presented by the Department of Human Movement Science such as obesity management, cardiac rehabilitation and other lifestyle related conditions.

The centre was founded in 2003 and was until now managed by Dr Louis Holtzhausen, from Kovsie Health and a consultant, Dr Gary Vorster.

A contract formalizing the appointment of Sports Plan (Pty) Ltd was signed today by Prof Verschoor and Mr Morne du Plessis in the historic Main Building of the UFS Bloemfontein campus.

The manager of the centre appointed by Sports Plan (Pty) Ltd is Mr Charles Store, an alumnus of the UFS, previously employed at the Sports Science Institute in Cape Town and by the SANDF at 3 Military Hospital, Bloemfontein.

Media release
Issued by: Anton Fisher
Director: Strategic Communication
072-207-8334
12 October 2005

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