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Developing models to predict patient outcomes in children with severe illness

28 December 2020 | Story André Damons | Photo Supplied

A lecturer from the University of the Free State’s (UFS) department of Paediatrics and Child Health is investigating the use of artificial neural networks to develop models for the prediction of patient outcomes in children with severe illness.

Dr Michael Pienaar, senior lecturer and specialist, is conducting this research as part of his doctoral research and the study deals primarily with the development of models that are designed and calibrated for use in South Africa. These artificial neural networks are computer programs designed to mimic some of the learning characteristics of biological neurons.

The potential applications of models

According to Dr Pienaar these models have traditionally been developed in high-income nations using conventional statistical methods.

“The potential applications of such models in the clinical setting include triage, medical research, guidance of resource allocation and quality control. Having initially begun this research investigating the prediction of mortality outcomes in the paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) I have broadened my scope to patients outside of PICU, seeking to identify children early during their illnesses who are at risk of serious illness requiring PICU,” says Dr Pienaar.

The research up until now has been directed towards the identification of characteristics that are both unique to children with serious illness in South Africa, but also accessible to clinicians in settings where expertise and technical resources are limited.

Research still in the early changes

The research is still in its early stages but next year a series of expert review panels will be held to investigate the selection of variables for the model, after which the collection of clinical data will begin. Once the data has been collected and prepared, a number of candidate models will be developed and evaluated. This should be concluded by the end of 2022.

Says Dr Pienaar: “The need to engage with the rapid proliferation of technology, particularly in the realms of machine learning, mobile technology, automation and the Internet of Things is as great in medical research now as it is in any academic discipline.

“It is critical that research, particularly in South Africa, engage with this in order to take advantage of the opportunities offered and avoid the dangers that go paired with them. Together with the technology as such, it has been essential to pursue this project as an interdisciplinary undertaking involving clinicians, biostatisticians and computer engineers.”

Hope for the research

Dr Pienaar says he was very fortunate and grateful to be the recipient of a generous interdisciplinary grant from the UFS which has allowed him to procure software and equipment that is critical to this project.

“The hope for this research is that the best performing of these models can be integrated with a mobile application that assists practitioners in a wide range of settings in the identification, treatment and early referral of children at high risk of severe illness. I would like to expand this research project to include other countries in Africa and South America and to use it as a bridge to collaboration with other clinical researchers in the Global South,” says Dr Pienaar.

As an early career researcher, Dr Pienaar hopes that this research can serve as a platform to build a body of research that uses the rapid technological advances of these times together with a wide range of collaborations with other disciplines in the pursuit of better child health.

He concludes by saying that he has had excellent support thus far from his supervisors, Prof Stephen Brown (Faculty of Health Sciences, UFS), Dr Nicolaas Luwes (Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering, Central University of Technology) and Dr Elizabeth George (Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit, University College London). I have also been supported by the Robert Frater Institute in the Faculty of Health Sciences.

News Archive

Shortage of quantity surveyors discussed at UFS

2006-03-24

During the recent visit of the Association of South African Quantity Surveyors (ASAQS) to the University of the Free State (UFS) were from the left Mr Egon Wortmann (Director: ASAQS), Prof Basie Verster (representative of the Free State on the ASAQS and head of the Department of Quantity Surveying and Construction Management at the UFS), Mr Greyling Venter (Chairperson: Free State branch of the ASAQS), Prof DG Brümmer(Vice-President: ASAQS) and Mr Patrick Waterson (President: ASAQS).
Photo supplied

Shortage of quantity surveyors discussed at UFS

“The South African building industry is experiencing an unprecedented high level of economic growth and prosperity. This is causing a definite shortage of registered quantity surveyors,” said Mr Egon Wortmann, Director of the Association of South African Quantity Surveyors(ASAQS) during the association’s recent visit to the Department of Quantity Surveying and Construction Management at the University of the Free State (UFS).

“This shortage is especially noticeable in local and national governments where unqualified and inexperienced staff, consultants and/or facilitators are now appointed,” said Mr Wortmann.

In doing so, the authorities that have adopted this approach are according to Mr Wortmann actually acting illegally and are not in compliance with the legal and statutory requirements of South Africa. “These unprofessional practices are unproductive, it leads to frustration and is strongly condemned by the ASAQS,” he said.

“The service delivery of these unqualified and unregistered service providers is often sub standard and does not comply to the legal requirements of the profession. It may also result in the tarnishing of the image and high professional standards set by the quantity surveying profession,” said Mr Wortmann.

“Universities offering programmes in quantity-surveying and construction management are also negatively affected by the high levels of activity in the building environment. Suitable lecturing staff are leaving the academic institutions as they are attracted to better opportunities being offered in the building industry. The ability of the tertiary institutions to attract young academics, to train them and to keep them in the longer term, is therefore almost impossible”, said Prof Basie Verster, head of the Department of Quantity Surveying and Construction Management at the UFS and representative of the Free State on the ASAQS.

According to Prof Verster the UFS supplies more than its quota of qualified quantity surveyors to the South African building industry. “Although more than 460 students are registered in construction related programmes at the UFS, we are as the ASAQS’s concerned about the shortage of students that can enter the construction industry. In our case, we are experiencing a shortage in black female students,” he said.

“Of the 460 postgraduate students, 38% are black of which 20% are female students. Graduates do also not necessarily stay in the country. As the UFS’s programmes are accredited overseas, a lot of our students leave the country for working opportunities elsewhere,” said Prof Verster.

Mr Patrick Waterson, President of the ASAQS, appealed to quantity surveyors to, when they are approached, consider academic careers or to make themselves available to lecture on a part time basis. “I also appeal to quantity-surveying practices, construction companies and developers to consider taking part in training activities,” he said.

The ASAQS has over the years developed a proud tradition within the quantity-surveying profession. Consequently membership of this organisation is a sought after goal for many members within the building environment. International agreements with various countries are also in place whereby it is mutually agreed that local as well as overseas qualifications are mutually acceptable on a reciprocal basis.

A more recent addition to the list of agreements is the reciprocity agreement entered into with the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors which makes it possible for South African based quantity surveyors to practice in over 120 countries worldwide.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
23 March 2006

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