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Developing models to predict patient outcomes in children with severe illness

28 December 2020 | Story André Damons | Photo Supplied

A lecturer from the University of the Free State’s (UFS) department of Paediatrics and Child Health is investigating the use of artificial neural networks to develop models for the prediction of patient outcomes in children with severe illness.

Dr Michael Pienaar, senior lecturer and specialist, is conducting this research as part of his doctoral research and the study deals primarily with the development of models that are designed and calibrated for use in South Africa. These artificial neural networks are computer programs designed to mimic some of the learning characteristics of biological neurons.

The potential applications of models

According to Dr Pienaar these models have traditionally been developed in high-income nations using conventional statistical methods.

“The potential applications of such models in the clinical setting include triage, medical research, guidance of resource allocation and quality control. Having initially begun this research investigating the prediction of mortality outcomes in the paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) I have broadened my scope to patients outside of PICU, seeking to identify children early during their illnesses who are at risk of serious illness requiring PICU,” says Dr Pienaar.

The research up until now has been directed towards the identification of characteristics that are both unique to children with serious illness in South Africa, but also accessible to clinicians in settings where expertise and technical resources are limited.

Research still in the early changes

The research is still in its early stages but next year a series of expert review panels will be held to investigate the selection of variables for the model, after which the collection of clinical data will begin. Once the data has been collected and prepared, a number of candidate models will be developed and evaluated. This should be concluded by the end of 2022.

Says Dr Pienaar: “The need to engage with the rapid proliferation of technology, particularly in the realms of machine learning, mobile technology, automation and the Internet of Things is as great in medical research now as it is in any academic discipline.

“It is critical that research, particularly in South Africa, engage with this in order to take advantage of the opportunities offered and avoid the dangers that go paired with them. Together with the technology as such, it has been essential to pursue this project as an interdisciplinary undertaking involving clinicians, biostatisticians and computer engineers.”

Hope for the research

Dr Pienaar says he was very fortunate and grateful to be the recipient of a generous interdisciplinary grant from the UFS which has allowed him to procure software and equipment that is critical to this project.

“The hope for this research is that the best performing of these models can be integrated with a mobile application that assists practitioners in a wide range of settings in the identification, treatment and early referral of children at high risk of severe illness. I would like to expand this research project to include other countries in Africa and South America and to use it as a bridge to collaboration with other clinical researchers in the Global South,” says Dr Pienaar.

As an early career researcher, Dr Pienaar hopes that this research can serve as a platform to build a body of research that uses the rapid technological advances of these times together with a wide range of collaborations with other disciplines in the pursuit of better child health.

He concludes by saying that he has had excellent support thus far from his supervisors, Prof Stephen Brown (Faculty of Health Sciences, UFS), Dr Nicolaas Luwes (Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering, Central University of Technology) and Dr Elizabeth George (Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit, University College London). I have also been supported by the Robert Frater Institute in the Faculty of Health Sciences.

News Archive

Help to rural women to become entrepreneurs

2006-10-24

Some of the guests who attended the ceremony were, from the left: Mr Donray Malabie (Head of the Alexander Forbes Community Trust), Ms Jemina Mokgosi (one of the ladies from Tabane Village who is participating in the Women in Agriculture project), Dr Limakatso Moorosi (Head: Veterinary Services, Free State Department of Agriculture), Prof Johan Greyling (Head: UFS Department of Animal and Wildlife and Grassland Sciences) and Ms Khoboso Lehloenya (coordinator of the project from UFS Department of Animal and Wildlife and Grassland Sciences). Photo: Leonie Bolleurs\

Alexander Forbes and UFS help rural women to become entrepreneurs

Today, the Alexander Forbes Community Trust and the University of the Free State (UFS) joined forces to create an enabling environment for rural women to become players in the private sector.

Three years ago the UFS set up a unique small-scale household egg production project called Women in Agriculture in Thaba ‘Nchu as a pilot project. The project was officially launched today by Mr Donray Malabie, Head of the Alexander Forbes Community Trust.

The aim of the Women in Agriculture Project is to create jobs, provide food security and to help develop rural women into entrepreneurs. A total of 25 women based in Tabane Village in Thaba ‘Nchu are the beneficiaries of the project.

“This is the first project in the Free State the Alexander Forbes Community Trust is involved with. The project would help rural women acquire the skills they need to run their own egg-production business from their homes,” said Mr Malabie.

“The ongoing debate on the shortage of skills ignores the fact that people with little or no education at all also need training. This project is special to the Trust as it provides for the creation of sustainable jobs, food security and the transfer of much needed skills all at once, particularly at this level,” he said.

Every woman in the group started with two small mobile cages that housed 12 hens each. The units are low in cost, and made of commercially available welded mesh and a metal frame. Now, each woman has four cages with 48 hens. The group manages to collectively produce 750 eggs daily.

The eggs are currently sold to local businesses, including spaza shops and the women are using the income generated to look after their families and to further develop their business.

The Department of Animal and Wildlife and Grassland Sciences at the UFS identified the project and did the initial research into the feasibility of setting up such a project.

“A demonstration and training unit has been established at the Lengau Agricultural Development Centre and the women attended a short practical training course. Subsidies are provided for feeding, together with all the material and the lay hens necessary for the start of the business,” said Ms Khoboso Lehloenya, coordinator of the project from the Department of Animal and Wildlife and Grassland Sciences at the UFS.

“The advantage in using lay hens is that they are resistant to diseases and the women will not need electric heating systems for the egg production,” said Ms Lehloenya.

According to Ms Lehloenya, the women are already benefiting from their egg production businesses. “Some of them have used the profit to buy school uniforms and tracksuits for their children and others are now able to make a monthly contribution to their household expenses,” said Ms Lehloenya.
“In South Africa, possibly due to cultural reasons and circumstances, most black people prefer to eat older and tougher chickens, compared to younger soft commercially available broiler chickens. This preference creates a further advantage for the women. At the end of their production cycle, old hens can be sold for a higher price than point-of-lay or young hens. This brings in further money to pay for more hens,” said Ms Lehloenya.

The Alexander Forbes Trust contributed R191 000 towards the project aimed at expanding it to benefit 15 more women.

“We are in the process of recruiting an additional 15 women in Thaba ‘Nchu who will be trained by the Lengau Agricultural Development Centre in order to replicate the model and extend its reach”, said Ms Lehloenya.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl@mail.uovs.ac.za
20 October 2006

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