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28 December 2020 | Story André Damons | Photo Supplied
Dr Michael Pienaar is a lecturer in the University of the Free State’s (UFS) department of Paediatrics and Child Health.

A lecturer from the University of the Free State’s (UFS) department of Paediatrics and Child Health is investigating the use of artificial neural networks to develop models for the prediction of patient outcomes in children with severe illness.

Dr Michael Pienaar, senior lecturer and specialist, is conducting this research as part of his doctoral research and the study deals primarily with the development of models that are designed and calibrated for use in South Africa. These artificial neural networks are computer programs designed to mimic some of the learning characteristics of biological neurons.

The potential applications of models

According to Dr Pienaar these models have traditionally been developed in high-income nations using conventional statistical methods.

“The potential applications of such models in the clinical setting include triage, medical research, guidance of resource allocation and quality control. Having initially begun this research investigating the prediction of mortality outcomes in the paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) I have broadened my scope to patients outside of PICU, seeking to identify children early during their illnesses who are at risk of serious illness requiring PICU,” says Dr Pienaar.

The research up until now has been directed towards the identification of characteristics that are both unique to children with serious illness in South Africa, but also accessible to clinicians in settings where expertise and technical resources are limited.

Research still in the early changes

The research is still in its early stages but next year a series of expert review panels will be held to investigate the selection of variables for the model, after which the collection of clinical data will begin. Once the data has been collected and prepared, a number of candidate models will be developed and evaluated. This should be concluded by the end of 2022.

Says Dr Pienaar: “The need to engage with the rapid proliferation of technology, particularly in the realms of machine learning, mobile technology, automation and the Internet of Things is as great in medical research now as it is in any academic discipline.

“It is critical that research, particularly in South Africa, engage with this in order to take advantage of the opportunities offered and avoid the dangers that go paired with them. Together with the technology as such, it has been essential to pursue this project as an interdisciplinary undertaking involving clinicians, biostatisticians and computer engineers.”

Hope for the research  

Dr Pienaar says he was very fortunate and grateful to be the recipient of a generous interdisciplinary grant from the UFS which has allowed him to procure software and equipment that is critical to this project.

“The hope for this research is that the best performing of these models can be integrated with a mobile application that assists practitioners in a wide range of settings in the identification, treatment and early referral of children at high risk of severe illness. I would like to expand this research project to include other countries in Africa and South America and to use it as a bridge to collaboration with other clinical researchers in the Global South,” says Dr Pienaar.

As an early career researcher, Dr Pienaar hopes that this research can serve as a platform to build a body of research that uses the rapid technological advances of these times together with a wide range of collaborations with other disciplines in the pursuit of better child health.

He concludes by saying that he has had excellent support thus far from his supervisors, Prof Stephen Brown (Faculty of Health Sciences, UFS), Dr Nicolaas Luwes (Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering, Central University of Technology) and Dr Elizabeth George (Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit, University College London). I have also been supported by the Robert Frater Institute in the Faculty of Health Sciences.

News Archive

Sunflowers are satellite dishes for sunshine, or are they?
2016-07-20

Eighty-six percent of South Africa’s
sunflowers are produced in the
Free State and North West provinces.

Helen Mirren, the English actress, said “the sunflower is like a satellite dish for sunshine”. However, researchers at the University of the Free State (UFS) have found that too much of this sunshine could have a negative effect on the growth of sunflowers, which are a major source of oil in South Africa.

According to Dr Gert Ceronio from the Department of Soil, Crop, and Climate Sciences at the UFS, extremely high soil temperatures play a definite role in the sprouting of sunflower seedlings. Together with Lize Henning, professional officer in the department, and Dr André Nel from the Agricultural Research Council, he is doing research on biotic and abiotic factors that could have an impact on sunflowers.

Description: Sonneblom 2 Tags: Sonneblom 2

Various degrees of deformity (bad-left
to none-right) in seedlings of the same
cultivar at very high soil temperatures.
Photo: Dr Gert Ceronio

Impact of high temperatures on sunflower production

The Free State and North West provinces, which produce 86% of South Africa’s sunflowers, are afflicted especially by high summer temperatures that lead to extremely high soil temperatures.

Dr Ceronio says: “Although sunflower seeds are able to germinate at temperatures from as low as 4°C to as high as 41°C, soil temperatures of 35°C and higher could have a negative effect on the vegetative faculty of sunflower seedlings, and could have an adverse effect on the percentage of sunflowers that germinate. From the end of November until mid-January, this is a common phenomenon in the sandy soil of the Free State and North West provinces. Soil temperatures can easily exceed the critical temperature of 43°C, which can lead to poor germination and even the replanting of sunflowers.”

Since temperature have a huge impact not only on the germination of sunflower seeds, but also on the vegetative faculty and sprouting of sunflower seedlings, Dr Ceronio suggests that sunflowers should be planted in soil with soil temperatures of 22 to 30°C. Planting is usually done in October and early November. Unfortunately, this is not always possible, as soil moisture is not optimal for growth. Farmers are then compelled to plant sunflowers later.

Impact of herbicides on sunflower growth

“High soil temperatures, combined with the herbicide sensitivity of some cultivars, could lead to the poor development of seedlings," says Dr Ceronio.

The use of herbicides, such as ALACHLOR, for the control of weeds in sunflowers is common practice in sunflower production. It has already been determined that ALACHLOR could still have a damaging effect on the seedlings of some cultivars during germination and sprouting, even at recommended application dosages.

“The purpose of the continued research is to establish the sensitivity of sunflower cultivars to ALACHLOR when exposed to high soil temperatures,” says Dr Ceronio.

 

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