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2020 supplementary budget: The road map to the revival of the economy

29 June 2020 | Story Edward Kagiso Molefe and Dr Nico Keyser

Molefe and Kesyer_web read more — Edward Kagiso Molefe, left, and Dr Nico Keyser.

The 2020 supplementary budget comes at a time when the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is causing widespread disruption in the world’s economy and continues to affect it negatively. Even though the precise economic and social consequences of the pandemic still remain uncertain, there is prevalent agreement between economists and policy makers that it will leave the world overwrought with the uncertainties of the future. According to the International Monetary Fund, the world economy is expected to contract sharply by 5,2% this year, due to the huge lockdown to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The South African economy is also expected to contract by 7,2% in 2020, and according to the Minister of Finance, Tito Mboweni, this is the largest contraction in almost 90 years. Therefore, the South African government currently finds itself in an unfortunate and restricted fiscal position. Minister Mboweni does not have much room to move within his emergency budget and therefore calls for a pragmatic approach, the reprioritisation of expenditure, and the implementation of austerity measures within the public sector and its state-owned enterprises (SOE).

Zero-based budgeting

However, the country should be applauded for responding to this economic shock with a set of unmatched measures. The Minister further highlighted that, for the first time in history, all stakeholders – including the private sector, labour, communities, and the central bank – participated in responding to the storm that came without an early warning system. This has proven the validity of the long-sung gospel that by working together, we can do more. R500 billion of government’s COVID‐19 economic support package was directed straight at the problem. Against the background of ongoing measures to address the pandemic in South Africa, the Minister’s supplementary budget of 2020 stressed several key aspects:

The first burning issue addressed in the supplementary budget was the mounting debt-to-GDP ratio, which is envisaged to reach 80,5% in this fiscal year, as compared to a projection of 65,6% in February. Although the Minister has confirmed strategies to curtail the debt and widening deficit, no sign of stabilisation was presented. South Africa continues to experience contracting revenue and is relying extensively on loans from international sources, since savings is a non-starter. The Minister has also called for zero-based budgeting as one of the strategies in building a bridge to recover, and to close the mouth of the ‘hippopotamus’, which is eating our children’s inheritance. The zero-based budgeting is a big step in the right direction; it will make all role players in government understand the economic crisis we are facing.

Prioritising infrastructure development

The other positive part of the supplementary budget was the prioritisation of infrastructure development. The South African government has already considered almost 177 infrastructure projects that will assist in boosting the economy and curtailing unemployment. The Sustainable Infrastructure Symposium, hosted by President Cyril Ramaphosa, announced 55 projects that are ready to be rolled out in due course. Government needs to further stimulate its partnership with the private sector to ensure more infrastructure development and job creation. Infrastructure development will also ensure jobs for the unskilled labour force, which makes up the largest part of our unemployment.

In terms of job creation, an economic support package of R100 billion has been set aside for a multi-year, comprehensive response to our job emergency. Moreover, the President’s job creation and protection initiative will be rolled out over the medium term. This will include a repurposed public employment programme and a Presidential Youth Employment Intervention. The country is looking forward to further details regarding this presidential initiative, particularly with regard to the Presidential Youth Employment Intervention, as the youth is the future of this country.

Despite the envisaged revenue adjustment of R1,43 trillion to R1,12 trillion, the country is expected to continue spending. An additional R21 billion is allocated for COVID‐19‐related health-care spending. The supplementary budget has also proposed a R12,6 billion allocation to front-line services. An additional R11 billion is set aside towards improved water and sanitation, and an additional R6,1 billion for youth employment ensures that the most vulnerable are supported. However, the effectiveness of this allocation in the supplementary budget is sorely dependent on the ability of our government apparatus to spend the money.

Opening the economy

The only worrying issue that the minister did not dwell on much, was the public sector wage bill, which still remains a challenge. According to the Minister, nearly half of the consolidated revenue will go towards the compensation of public service employees. The compensation of employees continues to put much pressure on service delivery and is pushing government in the direction of borrowing. On the other hand, the government of South Africa is still under pressure to implement the 2020 salary adjustments. However, the question still remains why the South African government is not considering the same process as the private sector or finding an alternative way of setting salaries at an appropriate, affordable, and fair level. This could save government money to focus on other areas that require financing, such as debt-service costs.

What remains evident and feasible is that South Africa should continue opening the economy to revive sectors hit hard by the great lockdown. Allowing trade to take place, doing business, and markets to function would provide the ultimate boost to a struggling economy. A reduced role by government could pave the way for the private sector to play a larger role in the economy. Moreover, structural reforms are required to create a favourable environment for growth and to restore South African fiscal credibility.

Opinion article by Edward Kagiso Molefe, Lecturer: Department of Economics and Finance, and Dr Nico Keyser, Head of Department: Economics and Finance

News Archive

Dr Oprah Winfrey praises our university

2011-08-24

Dr Oprah Winfrey after receiving her honorary doctorate degree.
Photo: Rian Horn

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Video clip

Transcription (pdf document)

“I came 8 000 miles to say, thank you, Vrystaat!” and “God bless South Africa,” were the words Dr Oprah Winfrey used yesterday to respectively open and close her address to an overflowing Callie Human Centre on our Bloemfontein Campus.

Our university awarded an honorary doctorate in Education to Dr Winfrey during a stately, yet warm and cheerful affair yesterday, which saw the 4 500 seater Callie Human Centre packed to the rafters with adoring fans, staff members and students.

The honorary doctorate is in recognition of her unparalleled dedication to improving the lives and futures of so many by improving education and ensuring that it is accessible to all. Through her award-winning show, The Oprah Winfrey Show (which concluded this year after 25 years of entertainment and service), and the various charity organisations she has established, Dr Winfrey has harnessed the power of her iconic stature in the struggle to eradicate poverty and make education accessible to all.

The ceremony’s audience was entertained by South African music legend, Ms Sibongile Khumalo, the Bloemfontein Children’s Choir, Bartimea School for the Deaf and Blind’s Sign Language Choir, and several other musical performers as well as dancers.

Dr Winfrey could not hold back her tears when Mr John Samuel, interim Director of our International Institute for Studies in Race, Reconciliation and Social Justice, described her as an “honorary daughter of South Africa”. She proved just how much the country means to her when she joined in the singing of the South African national anthem, Nkosi Sikeleli, despite struggling with the words in some parts.

According to Dr Winfrey, her interest in our university began after she had read an article by Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector, in which he emphasised the need for South Africans to stop accepting mediocrity, if ever the country is to develop to its full potential.

She asked Mr Samuel to convey her message of support to Prof. Jansen and the wheels, which led to today’s great event, were set in motion.

She also expressed her admiration of the transformation process at our university and our commitment to “reconciliation, peace and harmony”. “What has happened at the University of the Free State is nothing short of a miracle and this is truly what the New South Africa is about,” she said to loud cheers from the audience.

To emphasise her point, she called the five workers from the Reitz video to the stage and used their forgiveness and acceptance of the students responsible for the video as an example of the healing achieved at the UFS.

“Having seen this forgiveness has allowed me to expand my vision of what we can be.” She also delivered a message of encouragement and reminded students that anyone, despite their circumstances and background, could become successful and grow to overcome their obstacles, as she had done.

“Anyone can be successful if they put their mind to it, work hard and are diligent,” she said. “We must all strive for more than success, though, and fulfil the highest expression of ourselves as humans by realising who you are and what you are meant to be.”

Following her address, Dr Winfrey answered several questions from our students, giving them advice on, among other things, how to choose a career that is right for them, and good characteristics to look for in leaders and peers.

She also mentioned that several learners from the Oprah Winfrey Leadership Academy, which has its very first group of Grade 12 learners this year, would be visiting our university next month in order to help them select a university to attend next year.

Media Release
25 June 2011
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: news@ufs.ac.za

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