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2020 supplementary budget: The road map to the revival of the economy

29 June 2020 | Story Edward Kagiso Molefe and Dr Nico Keyser

Molefe and Kesyer_web read more — Edward Kagiso Molefe, left, and Dr Nico Keyser.

The 2020 supplementary budget comes at a time when the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is causing widespread disruption in the world’s economy and continues to affect it negatively. Even though the precise economic and social consequences of the pandemic still remain uncertain, there is prevalent agreement between economists and policy makers that it will leave the world overwrought with the uncertainties of the future. According to the International Monetary Fund, the world economy is expected to contract sharply by 5,2% this year, due to the huge lockdown to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The South African economy is also expected to contract by 7,2% in 2020, and according to the Minister of Finance, Tito Mboweni, this is the largest contraction in almost 90 years. Therefore, the South African government currently finds itself in an unfortunate and restricted fiscal position. Minister Mboweni does not have much room to move within his emergency budget and therefore calls for a pragmatic approach, the reprioritisation of expenditure, and the implementation of austerity measures within the public sector and its state-owned enterprises (SOE).

Zero-based budgeting

However, the country should be applauded for responding to this economic shock with a set of unmatched measures. The Minister further highlighted that, for the first time in history, all stakeholders – including the private sector, labour, communities, and the central bank – participated in responding to the storm that came without an early warning system. This has proven the validity of the long-sung gospel that by working together, we can do more. R500 billion of government’s COVID‐19 economic support package was directed straight at the problem. Against the background of ongoing measures to address the pandemic in South Africa, the Minister’s supplementary budget of 2020 stressed several key aspects:

The first burning issue addressed in the supplementary budget was the mounting debt-to-GDP ratio, which is envisaged to reach 80,5% in this fiscal year, as compared to a projection of 65,6% in February. Although the Minister has confirmed strategies to curtail the debt and widening deficit, no sign of stabilisation was presented. South Africa continues to experience contracting revenue and is relying extensively on loans from international sources, since savings is a non-starter. The Minister has also called for zero-based budgeting as one of the strategies in building a bridge to recover, and to close the mouth of the ‘hippopotamus’, which is eating our children’s inheritance. The zero-based budgeting is a big step in the right direction; it will make all role players in government understand the economic crisis we are facing.

Prioritising infrastructure development

The other positive part of the supplementary budget was the prioritisation of infrastructure development. The South African government has already considered almost 177 infrastructure projects that will assist in boosting the economy and curtailing unemployment. The Sustainable Infrastructure Symposium, hosted by President Cyril Ramaphosa, announced 55 projects that are ready to be rolled out in due course. Government needs to further stimulate its partnership with the private sector to ensure more infrastructure development and job creation. Infrastructure development will also ensure jobs for the unskilled labour force, which makes up the largest part of our unemployment.

In terms of job creation, an economic support package of R100 billion has been set aside for a multi-year, comprehensive response to our job emergency. Moreover, the President’s job creation and protection initiative will be rolled out over the medium term. This will include a repurposed public employment programme and a Presidential Youth Employment Intervention. The country is looking forward to further details regarding this presidential initiative, particularly with regard to the Presidential Youth Employment Intervention, as the youth is the future of this country.

Despite the envisaged revenue adjustment of R1,43 trillion to R1,12 trillion, the country is expected to continue spending. An additional R21 billion is allocated for COVID‐19‐related health-care spending. The supplementary budget has also proposed a R12,6 billion allocation to front-line services. An additional R11 billion is set aside towards improved water and sanitation, and an additional R6,1 billion for youth employment ensures that the most vulnerable are supported. However, the effectiveness of this allocation in the supplementary budget is sorely dependent on the ability of our government apparatus to spend the money.

Opening the economy

The only worrying issue that the minister did not dwell on much, was the public sector wage bill, which still remains a challenge. According to the Minister, nearly half of the consolidated revenue will go towards the compensation of public service employees. The compensation of employees continues to put much pressure on service delivery and is pushing government in the direction of borrowing. On the other hand, the government of South Africa is still under pressure to implement the 2020 salary adjustments. However, the question still remains why the South African government is not considering the same process as the private sector or finding an alternative way of setting salaries at an appropriate, affordable, and fair level. This could save government money to focus on other areas that require financing, such as debt-service costs.

What remains evident and feasible is that South Africa should continue opening the economy to revive sectors hit hard by the great lockdown. Allowing trade to take place, doing business, and markets to function would provide the ultimate boost to a struggling economy. A reduced role by government could pave the way for the private sector to play a larger role in the economy. Moreover, structural reforms are required to create a favourable environment for growth and to restore South African fiscal credibility.

Opinion article by Edward Kagiso Molefe, Lecturer: Department of Economics and Finance, and Dr Nico Keyser, Head of Department: Economics and Finance

News Archive

UFS hikers to Cape Town reflect on their journey

2014-05-26

For the four volunteers from the university who are currently on their way to the Cape on foot, every hour of every day is a victory.

It is three weeks since two employees from the University of the Free State (UFS), Adéle van Aswegen and Ntokozo Nkabinde, together with two other Bloemfontein residents, Nico Piedt and Ronel Warner, left Bloemfontein on fóót for the Cape, in order to highlight the problem of food insecurity among students.

On Sunday 18 May they crossed the halfway mark at Beaufort West and will conclude their journey on Tuesday 3 June in Cape Town.

This is what the hikers have to say after three weeks on the road:

Adéle van Aswegen
It isn’t only a physical journey, but rather an emotional journey you undertake. You learn what it means to be truly thankful for basic things like clothes, a place to sleep and food.

Nico Piedt
I know what it feels like to survive on only a glass of water in your stomach – a cup of weak tea if you’re lucky – for the whole day. If I can help (through the hike) to give someone a better chance in life, then it is worthwhile.

Ronel Warner
You think and grow simultaneously. As you plan every stride ahead of you, you also plan your life ahead.

Ntokozo Nkabinde
You don’t walk for yourself. You undertake this journey, maybe because you want to help someone, but this journey is actually in honour of something bigger and you just have to endure.”

These boots are made for walking ... to Cape Town (Article of 02 May 2014)
“Aren’t auntie and them hungry yet?” Country folk worried about NSH hikers (15 May 2014)

Daily updates:
(You can also follow us on @UFSweb for daily tweets)

Day 33: 2 June 2014
13:40
20 km
Sunset Beach, Cape Town

Day 32: 1 June 2014
16:05
26 km
Mervyn and Sanet Wessels, Belville

Day 31: 31 May 2014
16:31
39.6 km
Rhonell and Gavin Julain, Paarl

Day 30: 30 May 2014
14:00
16 km
Monte Rosa, Rawsonville

Day 29: 29 May 2014
13:16
31 km
The Habit, Worcester

Day 28: 28 May 2014
11:00
22.4 km
Monte Roza, De doorns

Day 27: 27 May 2014
17:00
21.1 km
Karoo Hotel

Day 26: 26 May 2014
18:27
43.3 km
Tows river

Day 25: 25 May 2014
12:18
Lord Milner Hotel, Matjiesfontein

Day 24: 24 May 2014
16:30
42 km
Laingsburg Country Lodge

Day 23: 23 May 2014
17:32
41.8 km
Vergenoeg

Day 22: 22 May 2014
16:42
43 km
Assendelft Lodge and Bush Camp, Prins Albert

Day 21: 21 May 2014
15:09
42 km
Leeu Gamka Hotel

Day 20: 20 May 2014
13:39
20 km
Alida, Springfontein

Day 19: 19 May 2014
12:31
27.6 km
Teri Moja Game Lodge

Day 18: 18 May 2014
First rest day
Nagenoeg Guesthouse, Beaufort West

Day 17: 17 May 2014
19:30
62.3 km
Nagenoeg Guesthouse, Beaufort West

Day 16: 16 May 2014
13:00
14 km
Taaibochfontein

Day 15: 15 May 2014
16:03
32 km
Travalia, Three Sisters

Day 14: 14 May 2014
18:33
43 km
Joalani Guest Farm

Day 13: 13 May 2014
17:30
33 km
Die Rondawels

Day 12: 12 May 2014
16:49
40 km
Aandrus B&B in Richmond

Day 11: 11 May 2014
39 km
Wortelfontein (Magdel and Christiaan)

Day 10: 10 May 2014
15:44
34 km
Hanover Lodge

Day 9: 09 May 2014
40.8 km
Camping between Colesberg and Hanover

Day 8: 08 May 2014
15:25
33.7 km
Colesberg, The Lighthouse Guesthouse

Day 7: 07 May 2014
15:08
23 km
Orange River Lodge

Day 6: 06 May 2014
15:57
51.06 km
Gariep Forever Resort

Day 5: 05 May 2014
12:18
28 km
Rondefontein

Day 4: 04 May 2014
15:27
35 km
Trompsburg: Fox Den

Day 3: 03 May 2014
17:30
46.74 km
Edenburg Country Lodge (Hotel)

Day 2: 02 May 2014
11:44 am
15.3 km
Tom's Place

Day 1: 01 May 2014
32 km
Leeuwberg

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