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2020 supplementary budget: The road map to the revival of the economy

29 June 2020 | Story Edward Kagiso Molefe and Dr Nico Keyser

Molefe and Kesyer_web read more — Edward Kagiso Molefe, left, and Dr Nico Keyser.

The 2020 supplementary budget comes at a time when the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is causing widespread disruption in the world’s economy and continues to affect it negatively. Even though the precise economic and social consequences of the pandemic still remain uncertain, there is prevalent agreement between economists and policy makers that it will leave the world overwrought with the uncertainties of the future. According to the International Monetary Fund, the world economy is expected to contract sharply by 5,2% this year, due to the huge lockdown to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The South African economy is also expected to contract by 7,2% in 2020, and according to the Minister of Finance, Tito Mboweni, this is the largest contraction in almost 90 years. Therefore, the South African government currently finds itself in an unfortunate and restricted fiscal position. Minister Mboweni does not have much room to move within his emergency budget and therefore calls for a pragmatic approach, the reprioritisation of expenditure, and the implementation of austerity measures within the public sector and its state-owned enterprises (SOE).

Zero-based budgeting

However, the country should be applauded for responding to this economic shock with a set of unmatched measures. The Minister further highlighted that, for the first time in history, all stakeholders – including the private sector, labour, communities, and the central bank – participated in responding to the storm that came without an early warning system. This has proven the validity of the long-sung gospel that by working together, we can do more. R500 billion of government’s COVID‐19 economic support package was directed straight at the problem. Against the background of ongoing measures to address the pandemic in South Africa, the Minister’s supplementary budget of 2020 stressed several key aspects:

The first burning issue addressed in the supplementary budget was the mounting debt-to-GDP ratio, which is envisaged to reach 80,5% in this fiscal year, as compared to a projection of 65,6% in February. Although the Minister has confirmed strategies to curtail the debt and widening deficit, no sign of stabilisation was presented. South Africa continues to experience contracting revenue and is relying extensively on loans from international sources, since savings is a non-starter. The Minister has also called for zero-based budgeting as one of the strategies in building a bridge to recover, and to close the mouth of the ‘hippopotamus’, which is eating our children’s inheritance. The zero-based budgeting is a big step in the right direction; it will make all role players in government understand the economic crisis we are facing.

Prioritising infrastructure development

The other positive part of the supplementary budget was the prioritisation of infrastructure development. The South African government has already considered almost 177 infrastructure projects that will assist in boosting the economy and curtailing unemployment. The Sustainable Infrastructure Symposium, hosted by President Cyril Ramaphosa, announced 55 projects that are ready to be rolled out in due course. Government needs to further stimulate its partnership with the private sector to ensure more infrastructure development and job creation. Infrastructure development will also ensure jobs for the unskilled labour force, which makes up the largest part of our unemployment.

In terms of job creation, an economic support package of R100 billion has been set aside for a multi-year, comprehensive response to our job emergency. Moreover, the President’s job creation and protection initiative will be rolled out over the medium term. This will include a repurposed public employment programme and a Presidential Youth Employment Intervention. The country is looking forward to further details regarding this presidential initiative, particularly with regard to the Presidential Youth Employment Intervention, as the youth is the future of this country.

Despite the envisaged revenue adjustment of R1,43 trillion to R1,12 trillion, the country is expected to continue spending. An additional R21 billion is allocated for COVID‐19‐related health-care spending. The supplementary budget has also proposed a R12,6 billion allocation to front-line services. An additional R11 billion is set aside towards improved water and sanitation, and an additional R6,1 billion for youth employment ensures that the most vulnerable are supported. However, the effectiveness of this allocation in the supplementary budget is sorely dependent on the ability of our government apparatus to spend the money.

Opening the economy

The only worrying issue that the minister did not dwell on much, was the public sector wage bill, which still remains a challenge. According to the Minister, nearly half of the consolidated revenue will go towards the compensation of public service employees. The compensation of employees continues to put much pressure on service delivery and is pushing government in the direction of borrowing. On the other hand, the government of South Africa is still under pressure to implement the 2020 salary adjustments. However, the question still remains why the South African government is not considering the same process as the private sector or finding an alternative way of setting salaries at an appropriate, affordable, and fair level. This could save government money to focus on other areas that require financing, such as debt-service costs.

What remains evident and feasible is that South Africa should continue opening the economy to revive sectors hit hard by the great lockdown. Allowing trade to take place, doing business, and markets to function would provide the ultimate boost to a struggling economy. A reduced role by government could pave the way for the private sector to play a larger role in the economy. Moreover, structural reforms are required to create a favourable environment for growth and to restore South African fiscal credibility.

Opinion article by Edward Kagiso Molefe, Lecturer: Department of Economics and Finance, and Dr Nico Keyser, Head of Department: Economics and Finance

News Archive

International Year of Crystallography attracts science experts from across the globe

2014-10-13

Video: Discover what Chrystallopgraphy can do for you
Video: Celebrating Crystallography: An Animated Adventure

Summit programme

The third world summit in the International Year of Crystallography (in Africa) will be hosted by the UFS Department of Chemistry here on the Bloemfontein Campus. Prof André Roodt, Head of the Department of Chemistry, was elected as the President of the European Crystallographic Association in 2012. Earlier this year he unveiled the Max von Laue 'Plaque' in Posnan, Poland.

The Pan-African Meeting of the International Year of Crystallography consists of a congress and summit. The details are as follows:

Congress
12–15 October 2014
CR Swart Senate Hall, UFS Bloemfontein Campus

Summit
15–17 October 2014
CR Swart Senate Hall, UFS Bloemfontein Campus
Summit opening: Wednesday 15 October 2014 at 14:00 in the CR Swart Senate Hall

This event will be opened and attended by:
•   the UFS Rector and Vice-Rector – Profs Jonathan Jansen and Corli Witthuhn;
•   the acting Director-General of the Department of Science and Technology – Dr Thomas Auf der Heyde;
•   the acting CEO of the National Research Foundation – Dr Gansen Pillay;
•   the UNESCO Vice-Director for Science Extension – Dr Jean-Paul Ngome-Abiaga (Paris, France);
•   the representative of the Executive Committee for the International Union of Crystallography (IUCr) – Prof Santiago Garcia-Granda (Oviedo: Spain);
•   the marketing director of the IUCr – Prof Michele Zema (Pavia, Italy);
•   the President of the European Crystallographic Association (ECA) – Prof André Roodt, who will officially open the summit on Wednesday 15 October 2014 from 14:00–15:30.

Presenters from across Africa and Europe will deliver papers at this event which will be attended by more than 100 delegates from twenty-plus countries, including Spain, France, Italy, Croatia, Germany, Russia and India.

Numerous crystallographic research areas will be covered. This includes:
•   powder diffraction,
•   small molecule crystallography,
•   biological crystallography,
•   industrial crystallography,
•   surface crystallography,
as well as techniques such as
•   electron microscopy and
•   synchrotron work.

“At this event we hope to establish an African Crystallographic Association,” said Prof Roodt.

The United Nations declared 2014 as the International Year of Crystallography. It was recently officially opened at the UNESCO headquarters in Paris, France, by the Secretary General of the UN, Ban Ki-moon.

The International Year of Crystallography celebrates the centennial of the work of Max von Laue and the father and son, William Henry and William Laurence Bragg. More generally, it celebrates what crystallography can do for humanity – which proves to be a significant amount.

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