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10 June 2020 | Story Leonie Bolleurs | Photo Supplied
Dr Ehlers was appointed to serve on the National Forensic Oversight and Ethics Board of 10 members for a second term, based on her knowledge in the field of forensic sciences.

Dr Karen Ehlers from the Department of Genetics at the University of the Free State (UFS) was elected as a member of the National Forensic Oversight and Ethics Board (NFOEB) for a second term.

Dr Ehlers has been appointed to the board of 10 members based on her knowledge in the field of forensic sciences. She is currently conducting research focusing on the forensic application of Y-STR markers, the statistical analysis of DNA profiles, and touch DNA.

Making valuable contributions
Her expertise in the field of forensic genetics assists the board – which also handles complaints about alleged violations relating to the abuse of DNA samples and forensic DNA profiles – to oversee the operations of the Forensic Science Laboratory and the National Forensic DNA Database (NFDD). 

“The knowledge I gained from my current research at the UFS has enabled me to make valuable contributions to the board and its recommendations to the Minister of Police,” says Dr Ehlers. 

In her first term as member of the Board – following regular tracking and analysis of reports, the Board noted an increase in the number of outstanding forensic investigative leads – (hits on the National Forensic DNA Database) that were not followed up.

“After we made enquiries, it was determined that the provincial task teams that were to follow up on the leads, were ad hoc structures that lacked the necessary resources. The Board addressed this shortfall by engaging with various stakeholders and helping to establish permanent structures, called Forensic Investigative Units, with dedicated resources – both human and material – to effectively follow up on all forensic DNA investigative leads. The finalised Regulations were published for comment in the Government Gazette on 27 March 2020,” says Dr Ehlers.

Lowering SA crime rate
While serving on this board, she is ensuring that South Africa has a functioning DNA database that contributes to lowering the crime rate in the country. “As a member of the board, I hope to add value to its functioning. I feel that in the future, science will play an even bigger role in crime prevention, detection, and the solving of crimes,” she states.

Dr Ehlers is Programme Director of the Forensic Sciences Programme in the Department of Genetics. She teaches the Crime Scene Management module to second-year students and supervises seven honours, five MSc, and three PhD students. 

Besides her appointment as member of the NFOEB, she values the work she is doing with her students. “The highlight of my career was when my first group of BScHons students in Forensic Genetics graduated and were shortly thereafter appointed by the Forensic Sciences Laboratory as DNA analysts,” she says. 

News Archive

Inaugural lecture: Prof. Phillipe Burger
2007-11-26

 

Attending the lecture were, from the left: Prof. Tienie Crous (Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences at the UFS), Prof. Phillipe Burger (Departmental Chairperson of the Department of Economics at the UFS), and Prof. Frederick Fourie (Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS).
Photo: Stephen Collet

 
A summary of an inaugural lecture presented by Prof. Phillipe Burger on the topic: “The ups and downs of the South African Economy: Rough seas or smooth sailing?”

South African business cycle shows reduction in volatility

Better monetary policy and improvements in the financial sector that place less liquidity constraints on individuals is one of the main reasons for the reduction in the volatility of the South African economy. The improvement in access to the financial sector also enables individuals to manage their debt better.

These are some of the findings in an analysis on the volatility of the South African business cycle done by Prof. Philippe Burger, Departmental Chairperson of the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Department of Economics.

Prof. Burger delivered his inaugural lecture last night (22 November 2007) on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein on the topic “The ups and downs of the South African Economy: Rough seas or smooth sailing?”

In his lecture, Prof. Burger emphasised a few key aspects of the South African business cycle and indicated how it changed during the periods 1960-1976, 1976-1994 en 1994-2006.

With the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an indicator of the business cycle, the analysis identified the variables that showed the highest correlation with the GDP. During the periods 1976-1994 and 1994-2006, these included durable consumption, manufacturing investment, private sector investment, as well as investment in machinery and non-residential buildings. Other variables that also show a high correlation with the GDP are imports, non-durable consumption, investment in the financial services sector, investment by general government, as well as investment in residential buildings.

Prof. Burger’s analysis also shows that changes in durable consumption, investment in the manufacturing sector, investment in the private sector, as well as investment in non-residential buildings preceded changes in the GDP. If changes in a variable such as durable consumption precede changes in the GDP, it is an indication that durable consumption is one of the drivers of the business cycle. The up or down swing of durable consumption may, in other words, just as well contribute to an up or down swing in the business cycle.

A surprising finding of the analysis is the particularly strong role durable consumption has played in the business cycle since 1994. This finding is especially surprising due to the fact that durable consumption only constitutes about 12% of the total household consumption.

A further surprising finding is the particularly small role exports have been playing since 1960 as a driver of the business cycle. In South Africa it is still generally accepted that exports are one of the most important drivers of the business cycle. It is generally accepted that, should the business cycles of South Africa’s most important trade partners show an upward phase; these partners will purchase more from South Africa. This increase in exports will contribute to the South African economy moving upward. Prof. Burger’s analyses shows, however, that exports have generally never fulfil this role.

Over and above the identification of the drivers of the South African business cycle, Prof. Burger’s analysis also investigated the volatility of the business cycle.

When the periods 1976-1994 and 1994-2006 are compared, the analysis shows that the volatility of the business cycle has reduced since 1994 with more than half. The reduction in volatility can be traced to the reduction in the volatility of household consumption (especially durables and services), as well as a reduction in the volatility of investment in machinery, non-residential buildings and transport equipment. The last three coincide with the general reduction in the volatility of investment in the manufacturing sector. Investment in sectors such as electricity and transport (not to be confused with investment in transport equipment by various sectors) which are strongly dominated by the government, did not contribute to the decrease in volatility.

In his analysis, Prof. Burger supplies reasons for the reduction in volatility. One of the explanations is the reduction in the shocks affecting the economy – especially in the South African context. Another explanation is the application of an improved monetary policy by the South African Reserve Bank since the mid 1990’s. A third explanation is the better access to liquidity and credit since the mid 1990’s, which enables the better management of household finance and the absorption of financial shocks.

A further reason which contributed to the reduction in volatility in countries such as the United States of America’s business cycle is better inventory management. While the volatility of inventory in South Africa has also reduced there is, according to Prof. Burger, little proof that better inventory management contributed to the reduction in volatility of the GDP.

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