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Government uses some of the best available minds to help with COVID-19-Models

22 June 2020 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Anja Aucamp

Herklaas_read more — Herkulaas Combrink.

A lot can be said about forecasting and modelling, its accuracy, and how it works. Forecasting and modelling provide any decision-maker with plausible predictions or outcomes to give some kind of estimated consequence. Without this field of science, planning would be difficult, as one would simply make decisions without knowing what might potentially happen to a specific cohort, market, or product. Forecasting as a concept can be seen as a set of mathematical, statistical and/or computational tools applied to a set of assumptions about something.

This is according to Herkulaas Combrink of the Centre for Teaching and Learning at the University of the Free State (UFS) and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP), following the South African government’s modelling of how many people would contract COVID-19 and die, which has come under fire in recent times – with one expert saying it was “flawed and illogical and made wild assumptions”.

Combrink is of the opinion that South Africa – by using the MASHA Consortium – is using the best minds that the country has to offer. The fact that the leadership took a pragmatic stance and reached out to the scientific community has mitigated a medical disaster in a healthcare system that was not ready a few months ago.

“The government is looking at as many models as they can, but is working very closely with MASHA and the CSIR” says Combrink, who has been involved in clinical surveillance, and also forms part of the modelling team during his secondment to the Free State Department of Health.

Prof Shabhir Madhi, the former head of the SA National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), recently said that the initial modelling and fatality estimates were “back-of-envelope calculations”.

According to a news report, the government’s initial model also predicted that 600 COVID-19 patients would need treatment in intensive care units (ICU) in SA by April 1. But by April 18, the last publicly released figures showed that there were 32 COVID-19 patients in ICU.

Tried-and-tested models

The models currently used are tried-and-tested epidemiological models, mathematical models, and economic forecasting models that have been used in the past. It has now been calibrated to the specifications that we know of this disease, which come from publications. The reason why you would use more than one model is to compare models retrospectively, so that you can see what is going on.

“The government immediately reached out to the best minds in the country, and with the aid of the consortium, took a stance to throw scenarios at the different models and stress test them so that they could know that they are using the best possible models to assist in resource management and decision-making. If government responded in a different way and didn’t reach out, we might not have had a lockdown and subsequently would probably have been in a different position where the country wouldn’t be ready.”

“We can say with a high degree of confidence that the lockdown really helps to ease and flatten the curve in the country. In light of flattening the curve, the right decisions have been made,” says Combrink.

COVID-19 still new

Unfortunately, says Combrink, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was not enough information related to the disease assumptions and it lacked the rigour and perfection associated with the already existing prediction models. Although it may feel like a lifetime, the first COVID-19 case was only reported in December 2019. Add to this that not all the parameters related to the disease were known in January, it was challenging to determine all the ‘ins and outs’ of this disease.

“Luckily, the mathematics and statistics of an outbreak have been extensively studied, and as a result, we only needed to use the correct parameters to estimate the spread of the disease in some of the outbreak models. The Minister of Health, Dr Zweli Mkhize, and the national modellers led by Dr Harry Moultrie, were transparent with not only their projections, but also how they derived their conclusions and what parameters they used,” says Combrink.

The most important thing in modelling is to calibrate according to what is known about the disease and people, explains Combrink. “It is impossible to predict people and a disease100% accurately, because you don’t always know how a virus will react to every single person’s body and you can’t predict human behaviour.”

“So, there is a certain degree of error and a certain degree of confidence that lies within each model, and that is why you evaluate these models on a regular basis. And this is important. You will never be able to say this is the exact number. Just like the weather. If the weather patterns were predicted to be 12 degrees tomorrow, and it turns out to be 16 degrees, you at least packed a jersey. You knew it was going to be cold. The chances that the weather predicts that it will be 12 and it turns out to be 57 degrees, is virtually zero. It gives you more or less an indication what to prepare for

Models are useful, but can also be wrong

Combrink says if you want to apply any model, you need to understand the assumptions and the limitations of the models. Given a certain set of criteria – what are the assumptions you are making and what are the expected outcomes – you can only act according to that. He says, as time goes by, we can now see that there are some models that yield much better results because we can now compare what was predicted two months ago and what is actually happening.

“Some models are useful. We can get a better understanding of the pandemic’s possible trajectories or gain an understanding of the impact that different interventions have made. Models are used for decision-making. These decision-making strategies can save lives. That is the purpose of models and modelling during these times.”

Combrink uses the weather forecast to explain how modelling works and that models can be wrong. “Yes, models are wrong all the time. Take the concept of weather as an example. How many times has the weather forecast predicted that there is an 80% chance of rain, and then it doesn’t rain? Models can give you a certain degree of confidence in an outcome related to a specific event or scenario, so that you, with some degree of confidence, can go forth and plan accordingly.”

“However, models can’t tell you what exactly will happen tomorrow, or the day after. It is not a crystal ball, and it is not a mirror into the future, but it can give you an indication of what is likely possible related to a specific scenario if you used the right variables. Let us consider that there is an 80% chance of rain in the weather forecast; will you a) go to work without an umbrella or b) with an umbrella? If it doesn’t rain, you are at least prepared for the rain because you took your umbrella. If you didn’t take the umbrella and it does rain, you may run into trouble because you did not appreciate the warning of the weather forecast. I think it is this concept that makes modelling so powerful. You can use it as a tool to prepare for things, in the event that it does happen, with a certain degree of confidence. Just like the previous example, there is also a 20% chance that it might not rain, but wouldn’t you want to be prepared?” explains Combrink.

Models are tools that can be used to base decisions on

No one truly knows how the pandemic will play out, and according to Combrink, it can be said with a high degree of confidence that if nothing is done about the pandemic, we know how it would turn out from a healthcare perspective.

“If you look at some of the global projections they gave months ago (in January and February) and compare it to what they said for March and April, you can see that they predicted, with a fairly good degree of confidence, what actually happened in certain countries. We have a good idea in terms of numbers and how it will play out, but what we will never know is what the impact will be on the socio-economic status of a person, the economy, and the impact on other diseases.”

“We do not know what is going to happen when it comes to mental health and COVID-19, for example. This is why modelling is a multidimensional approach, requiring inputs from various fields. Models can help us in the same way the weather forecast does. It is a tool that we can use to base certain decisions on, to be more prepared, because without it we won’t know to pack an ‘umbrella’ if it is predicted to rain or pack a ‘jersey’ if it is projected to cool down.”

News Archive

UFS awards degrees at autumn graduation ceremony

2009-04-28

The University of the Free State’s (UFS) autumn diploma and graduation ceremony took place this week in the Arena on the South Campus in Bloemfontein (formerly known as the Vista Campus). This arrangement has been made because of the large-scale renovations to the Callie Human Centre on the Main Campus.

Friday, 24 April 2009
Faculties of Health Sciences, Law and Theology Diploma ceremony

Law student’s achievement excels 80%
Four Law students obtained the LLB degree at this year’s autumn graduation ceremony of the University of the Free State (UFS) summa cum laude and were awarded the Moritz Bobbert Medal. They are from the left: Lezelle Olivier (80%), Albert Nell (91%) and Amanda du Toit (83%). LiFeng Chien were absent during the photo.

UFS awards degrees at autumn graduation ceremony
Today 331 students and five doctorates in the Faculties of Health Sciences, Law and Theology received their qualifications at this year’s autumn graduation ceremony of the University of the Free State (UFS). Michael Molahloe (left) and Mamokete Ntholeng both received their LL.B. degrees in the Faculty of Law.
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs

This year’s autumn graduation ceremony of the University of the Free State (UFS) was held on the South Campus. From the group of students that received their qualification from the Faculty of Law, is from the left: Janine Jonson, Anneska van der Spoel, Andrea Coetzer, and Jo-Mari Visser.
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs

Students in Nursing receive their degree
A group of students from the Faculty of Health Sciences received their B.Soc.Sc. degree at this year’s autumn graduation ceremony of the University of the Free State (UFS). At the occasion were, from the left: Ruth Beukes, Basetsana Panana, and Dipontsheng Tsolo.
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs

UFS Faculty of Health Sciences awards degrees
Liezl Swanepoel (left) and Heide van der Merwe received their BSocSC degrees at the University of the Free State’s (UFS) autumn graduation ceremony.
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs

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Thursday, 23 April 2009
Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences & Chancellor’s Dinner

UFS awards unique doctorate
Dr Rodney Douglas, who had never obtained any formal undergraduate qualification, this week received a Ph.D. in Geography and Geology during the autumn graduation ceremony of the University of the Free State (UFS). The name of his thesis is “A new perspective on the geohydrological and surface processes controlling the depositional environment at the Florisbad archaeozoological site”. He had four papers published in journals that were related to his thesis. He obtained his South African Museums Association Diploma in Biology in 1988 and his M.Sc. in Environmental Biology at the University of Natal, Durban in 1992. He was accepted as a Master's degree student at that university based on research that he had conducted on, amongst others, the diets of reptiles. He has been working at the Department of Herpetology at the National Museum, Bloemfontein since 1984, where he holds the post of Principal Museum Scientist and Head of Department.
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs

Chancellor’s Dinner: UFS honours doctoral students
Last night, the University of the Free State (UFS) honoured students who had received their Ph.D. degrees at the autumn graduation ceremony this past week, at the Chancellor’s Dinner. A total of 25 doctorates were awarded during the respective ceremonies. Attending the occasion were, from the left: Dr Annemarie Kühn, Ph.D. in Chemistry, Prof. Jeanet Conradie, Department of Chemistry at the UFS and Dr Kühn’s promoter, Prof. Teuns Verschoor, Acting Rector of the UFS, Prof. Corene de Wet, Department of Comparative Education and Education Management at the UFS, and Dr Mafu Rakometsi, Chief Executive Officer of Umalusi and former head of the Free State Department of Education who received a Ph.D. in History. Prof. De Wet is Dr Rakometsi's co-promoter and the late Prof. Leo Barnard, former Head of the Department of History at the UFS, who passed away at the beginning of April 2009, was his promoter.
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs

Mrs Annemarie Kilian, Mr Willem Kilian (BSc. Hons) and Prof Stephanus Kilian
Photo: Mangaliso Radebe

Mr Jaco van der Merwe, Mr Renico Pretorius and Mr Rion Terblanche (all BSc. Quantity Survying)
Photo: Mangaliso Radebe

Ms Mamakoanyane Amelia Shata (BSc. Genetics and BSc. Hons. Plant Molecular Biology) and Mrs Maente Adelinah Shata.
Photo: Mangaliso Radebe

Mr Maurice Ambrose and Mr Owen Monk (both BSc. Quantity Survying).
Photo: Mangaliso Radebe

Ms Tobeka Mehlomekhulu (Lecturer: Department of Geography), Mr Neo Mokgosi (BSc. Hons. Genetics) and Ms Nwabisa Mehlomekhulu (BSc. Hons. Food Science).
Photo: Mangaliso Radebe

Mr John Mdane, Mr Fana Mdane (BSc. Information Technology) and Mrs Agnes Mdane
Photo: Mangaliso Radebe

Mr Kevin Vermaak (BSc. Hons. Geohydrology) and Ms Michelle Steenkamp (BSc. Hons. Geology).
Photo: Mangaliso Radebe

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21 April 2009
Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences

Prof. Magda Fourie's daughter graduates
Nadia Fourie, daughter of Prof. Magda Fourie, former Vice-Rector: Academic Planning at the UFS and now Vice-Rector: Teaching at Stellenbosch University, received the B.Com. Law degree.
Photo: Lacea Loader

724 degrees were awarded during the ceremony of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Here are, from the left: Simon Serutla, B.Com. Accounting, Lourencia Hamuaka, B.Com. Honours in Financial Economics and Investment Management, Sunet Opperman, B. Accounting, and Yolandi Greyling, B. Accounting.
Photo: Lacea Loader

Students in the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences graduated this week during the University of the Free State's (UFS) autumn graduation ceremony. Altogether 724 degrees were conferred. Here are, from the left: Marie-Louise Lombard, B.Com. Law, Adriaan van der Merwe, B.Com. Law and member of the Student Representative Council (Legal and Constitutional Affairs), Basanio Ncike, B.Com. Economics, and Richard Schooling, B.Com. Banking.
Photo: Lacea Loader

Center for Accounting honours top achievers
The Centre for Accounting at the University of the Free State (UFS) honoured the top ten students in the third-year B.Com. and B.Com. Hons. programmes respectively during this week's autumn graduation ceremony. Here are, from the left: Prof. Ronell Britz, Chairperson of the centre, Nils Kotze, first place in the B.Com. third-year group, and Madri Victor, first place in the B.Com. Hons. group; back: Prof. Hentie van Wyk, Programme Director: Accountant Training.
Photo: Stephen Collett

Accounting firms in Free State help with recognition of top achievers
Accounting firms in the Free State have contributed to a fund at the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Centre for Accounting to give recognition to top achievers in the third-year programme for the B.Com. and B.Com Hons. degrees respectively this week. It is evidence of the good relationship that exists between the Centre and the South African Institute for Chartered Accountants (SAICA), Free State. Here, from the left, are: Mr Pieter Clase, CoetzeeSmit Chartered Accountants, Mr Oswald Wentworth, KPMG, Mr Ettienne van Niekerk, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Herman Leach, Gobodo Inc. Chartered Accountants, and Mr Stefan Strydom, Havenga, Rossouw & Viljoen; front: Mr Ian Smit, Enslins Bloemfontein, Ms Thelma Crossman, Mazars, and Ms Daphline O'Brien, Ernst & Young.
Photo: Stephen Collett

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20 April 2009
Faculty of Education, Faculty of the Humanities.

CHESD awards 15 masters degrees
A group of 15 students received the Structured M.A. (Higher Education Studies) of the Centre for Higher Education Studies and Development (CHESD) at this year’s autumn graduation ceremony of the University of the Free State (UFS). This is the biggest group in the centre's history to be awarded master’s degrees, while four of the students received distinctions. Also of interest is that six of the 15 students already have doctoral degrees. At the occasion were, from the left: Dr Dipane Hlalele, Qwaqwa Campus, Ms Liesl Hoare, Central Univeristy of Technology, Welkom Campus (best achiever), and Dr Fanus van Tonder, Programme Director: Higher Education Studies and Research, CHESD. Ms Hoare received the Deans medal in the Faculty of the Humanities as the best master’s graduate student at the graduation ceremony. At the faculty’s prize function she also received the Kovsie-Alumni Trust award as the best M.A student in the faculty. She also received the CHESD Prize for the best achievement in the Structured M.A. (Higher Education Studies).
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs

UFS awards degrees at autumn graduation ceremony
Five hundred and eighty six degrees and nine doctorates were awarded this week during this year's autumn graduation ceremony on the South Campus of the University of the Free State (UFS) to students in the Faculty of the Humanities. At the occasion were, from the left: Nicola Bekker, Madré van der Merwe and Esté Scholtz. All three the ladies received the qualification B.A. Language Practice.
Photo: Lacea Loader

This year’s autumn graduation ceremony of the University of the Free State (UFS) is held on the South Campus in Bloemfontein. Today a group of students from the Programme: Governance and Political Transformation in the Faculty of the Humanities received their qualification. From the left, front are: Dr Tania Coetzee, Head of the Programme: Governance and Political Transformation, and Mr Itumeleng Liba, Chief Operation Officer at CENTLEC; back: Mr Kennett Sinclair, Vice-Chairperson of COPE in the Northern Cape, Ms Nicole Joannou, Goldfields Business and Catering, and Mr Tembeni Lobe from Bloemfontein.
Photo: Lacea Loader

Some of the students who received their qualifications during this week's graduation ceremony of the Faculty of the Humanities were, from the left: Shu-Jung Chan, B.Mus. Hons., Brian Gxavu, B.Mus., and Mpolokeng Lepote, B.A. Media Studies.
Photo: Lacea Loader

UFS’s CHESD awards doctoral degree
Ms Mardi Delport (middle), Assistant Director: Media and Communications at the Central University of Technology received her Doctoral degree at this year’s autumn graduation ceremony of the University of the Free State (UFS). The title of her thesis is: “An internal communication model for the Central University of Technology, Free State as a multi-campus institution”. With her are her promoter Prof. Driekie Hay (left), Vice-Rector: Academic Planning, and her co-promoter, Prof. Annette Wilkinson (right) from the Centre for Higher Education Studies and Development (CHESD) at the UFS.
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs

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