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22 June 2020 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Anja Aucamp
Herkulaas Combrink.

A lot can be said about forecasting and modelling, its accuracy, and how it works. Forecasting and modelling provide any decision-maker with plausible predictions or outcomes to give some kind of estimated consequence. Without this field of science, planning would be difficult, as one would simply make decisions without knowing what might potentially happen to a specific cohort, market, or product. Forecasting as a concept can be seen as a set of mathematical, statistical and/or computational tools applied to a set of assumptions about something.

This is according to Herkulaas Combrink of the Centre for Teaching and Learning at the University of the Free State (UFS) and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP), following the South African government’s modelling of how many people would contract COVID-19 and die, which has come under fire in recent times – with one expert saying it was “flawed and illogical and made wild assumptions”. 

Combrink is of the opinion that South Africa – by using the MASHA Consortium – is using the best minds that the country has to offer. The fact that the leadership took a pragmatic stance and reached out to the scientific community has mitigated a medical disaster in a healthcare system that was not ready a few months ago.

“The government is looking at as many models as they can, but is working very closely with MASHA and the CSIR” says Combrink, who has been involved in clinical surveillance, and also forms part of the modelling team during his secondment to the Free State Department of Health. 

Prof Shabhir Madhi, the former head of the SA National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), recently said that the initial modelling and fatality estimates were “back-of-envelope calculations”.

According to a news report, the government’s initial model also predicted that 600 COVID-19 patients would need treatment in intensive care units (ICU) in SA by April 1. But by April 18, the last publicly released figures showed that there were 32 COVID-19 patients in ICU.

Tried-and-tested models
The models currently used are tried-and-tested epidemiological models, mathematical models, and economic forecasting models that have been used in the past. It has now been calibrated to the specifications that we know of this disease, which come from publications. The reason why you would use more than one model is to compare models retrospectively, so that you can see what is going on.

“The government immediately reached out to the best minds in the country, and with the aid of the consortium, took a stance to throw scenarios at the different models and stress test them so that they could know that they are using the best possible models to assist in resource management and decision-making. If government responded in a different way and didn’t reach out, we might not have had a lockdown and subsequently would probably have been in a different position where the country wouldn’t be ready.” 

“We can say with a high degree of confidence that the lockdown really helps to ease and flatten the curve in the country. In light of flattening the curve, the right decisions have been made,” says Combrink.

COVID-19 still new
Unfortunately, says Combrink, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was not enough information related to the disease assumptions and it lacked the rigour and perfection associated with the already existing prediction models. Although it may feel like a lifetime, the first COVID-19 case was only reported in December 2019. Add to this that not all the parameters related to the disease were known in January, it was challenging to determine all the ‘ins and outs’ of this disease. 

“Luckily, the mathematics and statistics of an outbreak have been extensively studied, and as a result, we only needed to use the correct parameters to estimate the spread of the disease in some of the outbreak models. The Minister of Health, Dr Zweli Mkhize, and the national modellers led by Dr Harry Moultrie, were transparent with not only their projections, but also how they derived their conclusions and what parameters they used,” says Combrink.

The most important thing in modelling is to calibrate according to what is known about the disease and people, explains Combrink. “It is impossible to predict people and a disease100% accurately, because you don’t always know how a virus will react to every single person’s body and you can’t predict human behaviour.” 

“So, there is a certain degree of error and a certain degree of confidence that lies within each model, and that is why you evaluate these models on a regular basis. And this is important. You will never be able to say this is the exact number. Just like the weather. If the weather patterns were predicted to be 12 degrees tomorrow, and it turns out to be 16 degrees, you at least packed a jersey. You knew it was going to be cold. The chances that the weather predicts that it will be 12 and it turns out to be 57 degrees, is virtually zero. It gives you more or less an indication what to prepare for

Models are useful, but can also be wrong
Combrink says if you want to apply any model, you need to understand the assumptions and the limitations of the models. Given a certain set of criteria – what are the assumptions you are making and what are the expected outcomes – you can only act according to that. He says, as time goes by, we can now see that there are some models that yield much better results because we can now compare what was predicted two months ago and what is actually happening. 
 “Some models are useful. We can get a better understanding of the pandemic’s possible trajectories or gain an understanding of the impact that different interventions have made. Models are used for decision-making. These decision-making strategies can save lives. That is the purpose of models and modelling during these times.”

Combrink uses the weather forecast to explain how modelling works and that models can be wrong. “Yes, models are wrong all the time. Take the concept of weather as an example. How many times has the weather forecast predicted that there is an 80% chance of rain, and then it doesn’t rain? Models can give you a certain degree of confidence in an outcome related to a specific event or scenario, so that you, with some degree of confidence, can go forth and plan accordingly.” 

“However, models can’t tell you what exactly will happen tomorrow, or the day after. It is not a crystal ball, and it is not a mirror into the future, but it can give you an indication of what is likely possible related to a specific scenario if you used the right variables. Let us consider that there is an 80% chance of rain in the weather forecast; will you a) go to work without an umbrella or b) with an umbrella? If it doesn’t rain, you are at least prepared for the rain because you took your umbrella. If you didn’t take the umbrella and it does rain, you may run into trouble because you did not appreciate the warning of the weather forecast. I think it is this concept that makes modelling so powerful. You can use it as a tool to prepare for things, in the event that it does happen, with a certain degree of confidence. Just like the previous example, there is also a 20% chance that it might not rain, but wouldn’t you want to be prepared?” explains Combrink. 
 
Models are tools that can be used to base decisions on
No one truly knows how the pandemic will play out, and according to Combrink, it can be said with a high degree of confidence that if nothing is done about the pandemic, we know how it would turn out from a healthcare perspective. 
“If you look at some of the global projections they gave months ago (in January and February) and compare it to what they said for March and April, you can see that they predicted, with a fairly good degree of confidence, what actually happened in certain countries. We have a good idea in terms of numbers and how it will play out, but what we will never know is what the impact will be on the socio-economic status of a person, the economy, and the impact on other diseases.”

“We do not know what is going to happen when it comes to mental health and COVID-19, for example. This is why modelling is a multidimensional approach, requiring inputs from various fields. Models can help us in the same way the weather forecast does. It is a tool that we can use to base certain decisions on, to be more prepared, because without it we won’t know to pack an ‘umbrella’ if it is predicted to rain or pack a ‘jersey’ if it is projected to cool down.”

News Archive

Centenary medals awarded
2004-10-15

Speech, Rector and Vice-Chancellor: Prof. Frederick Fourie

Op 28 Januarie 2004 het ons die honderdste herdenking van die geboorte van hier­die hoër onderwys instelling gevier met ‘n groot partytjie voor die Hoofgebou. Dit was ‘n wonderlike en vreugdevolle aand.

Die historiese prosessie tydens die amptelike opening van 6 Februarie 2004, in kleurvolle akademiese togas, vanaf ons wortels in Grey-Kollege tot by die Hoof­gebou, het die reistog vanaf die verlede na die hede treffend ge­simbo­liseer.

Talle ander eeufeesgeleenthede het gedurende hierdie jaar plaasgevind. Woensdagaand het ons die premiêre van ‘n dokumentêre film oor koning Moshoeshoe beleef – ‘n belangrike eeufeesprojek van die UV wat onder meer gemik is op die ontwikkeling van ‘ n gedeede geskiedenisbesef – a shared sense of history – and the celebration of a very special leadership, of a spirit of nation-building and reconciliation, in somebody like king Moshoeshoe (also MT Steyn and others…)

Last night we experienced a wonderful and moving honorary doctorary ceremony, with a wonderful group of South Africans like Khotso Mokhele, Antjie Krog, Jakes Gerwel, Van Zyl Slabbert, Jaap Steyn, Saleem Badat, and others - giving so much food for thought.

This evening, where we honour outstanding contributors to the development of this University, is a suitable moment to reflect on the course of the first 100 years of the University of the Free State.

1. ‘n Voëlvlug oor die geskiedenis: die vyf fases

1.1 Eerste fase: 1904 – 1927 (Eerste kwarteeu)

Eerste wankelende treë in die totstandkoming van die
Grey Universiteitskollege

Gedurende 1904 – 1920 word die eerste en mees basiese vakke in geestes- en natuurweten­skappe ingestel, eerste Senaat en eerste Raad saamgestel, en eerste geboue opgerig (hoofgebou en manskoshuis). Teen 1920 was daar egter slegs ongeveer 100 studente, die instelling was finansieel in die knyp, met geen vooruitgang en groei, en ook nie ‘n vaste rektor nie – klaar­blyk­lik was die GUK nog geen lewensvatbare instelling nie. Vrystaatse kinders word steeds eerder na ander universiteite gestuur.

Hierna maak ds JD Kestell, rektor 1920 – 1927, ‘n reuse bydrae om ‘n versukkelde, arm, klein universiteitskollege lewensvatbaat te kry. Hy slaag met fonds­insameling en oortuig Afrikaanse én Engelse ouers om hulle kinders na die GUK te stuur. Teen 1927, met 420 studente, word die eerste nederige mylpale van kritiese massa bereik te midde van ‘n steeds armoedige Vrystaat­se gemeenskap en ‘n studentekorps met gelapte klere. [Maar ook die tyd waarin die Reitz-saal, waarin hierdie plegtigheid plaasvind, gebou is.]

1.2 Second phase: 1927 – 1950 (Tweede kwarteeu)

The Grey University College becomes a fully fledged university

By 1950 the establishment of main basic and career-oriented faculties were completed – Faculty of Commerce in 1937; Faculty of Law as wel as the Faculty of Education in 1945. Student numbers reached 1000 in 1950.

Die UKOVS beleef en oorleef die Groot Depressie, die armblankevraagstuk, die Tweede Wêreldoorlog, taal- en politieke stryd onder Afrikaners, en die stryd van Nat vs Sap, ook op die kampus. Die tydperk word veral gestempel deur die taalstryd met DF Malherbe (rektor 1929 – 1934) as sterk kampvegter vir Afrikaans. Veral na 1948 volg rektor Van der Merwe Scholtz ‘n doelbewuste enkel­talige Afrikaanse rigting (Christelik-nasionaal).

1.3 Derde fase: 1950 – 1976 (Derde kwarteeu)

Ongekompliseerde groei ná onafhanklikheid

Hierdie periode word gestempel deur verkryging van onafhanklikheid as universiteit op 18 Maart 1950. Daarna beleef die UOVS onder rektore Scholtz, Flippie Groene­woud en Benedictus Kok stelselmatige groei sonder beduidende finansiële kommer. Die UV is duidelik ‘n Afrikaanse ‘volksuniversiteit’ op Christelik-nasionale grondslag, onlosmaaklik in­gebed in die dominante politieke bedeling van apartheid en afsonder­like ontwikke­ling. Dit is die hooggety van Afrikaner (en blanke) self­vertroue en heerskappy. Vir personeel sowel as studente is dit ‘n relatief onge­kom­­pliseerde tyd getipeer deur groeiende voor­spoed in die blanke en Afrikaanse gemeenskap, goeie werksvooruitsigte vir studente, kommer­lose studentepret, en min spanning op die kampus.

The academic focus is on teaching, especially to provide staff for the growing public service and education sectors. Research has a low profile. More career-oriented or professional faculties are established: agriculture in 1958 and the medical faculty in 1970. Student numbers reach 2000 in 1960, 4000 in 1970 en 7000 in 1975. Many new residences and academic buildings are erected, especially in the Kok-era.

Teen 1976 was die vernaamste boustene van ‘n medium-grootte universiteit in posisie: onafhanklikheid, genoeg fakulteite, genoeg koshuise en akademiese geboue, goeie sport en kultuur. Op die oog af is die ideaal van volwaardige, onaf­hanklike universiteit verwesenlik.

1.4 Vierde fase: 1976 – 1989

Op koers na die jaar 2000: van die statiese na vernuwing

Politieke onstabiliteit en oorgang in die land begin met die Soweto-onluste, die drie-kamer parlement, PW Botha se Rubicon-toespraak, noodtoestande, die ‘struggle’ en opkoms van UDF, en so meer. Die UOVS is swaar onder die indruk van die ‘totale aanslag’ en die regering se totale teen-strategie. Die Universiteit word polities en akade­mies geïsoleer en intellektueel gemarginaliseer. Ekonomies is dit moeiliker tye na die oliekrisis en die begin van hoë inflasie, en die Staat se finansies wat begin knyp.

Academically this period is distinguished by the strong stimulation and support of the research capacity and orientation by rector Wynand Mouton, which leads to a significant growth in research, especially in the natural sciences. The faculty of Theology is establishyed, the Sasol-UFS library erected. Student numbers continue to grow, but at a much slower rate then before.

Twee ander fasette kenmerk hierdie tydperk: eerstens die toelating van die eerste swart studente (nagraadse 1978, voorgraads 1988) en die begin van die era van multikulturaliteit; tweedens, die begin van subsidie- en finansiële probleme en die eerste rasionalisasie van personeel. Albei hierdie is voortekens van ingewikkelde jare wat sou volg vanaf 1990.

1.5 Fifth phase: 1990 – 2004: The turn of the century brings winds of change

(a) 1990 – 1996:

Die Francois Retief era word gedomineer deur die gevolge van die politieke verande­ringe deur president FW de Klerk en die vrylating van Nelson Mandela. Die UV ontwaak tot die realiteit van die oorgang na ‘n post-apartheid samelewing en komende ANC regering. Die eerste versigtige trans­for­ma­sie­stappe word ingestel, multikulturaliteit word die groot uitdaging, en die eerste fasiliterende strukture (bv. die Multikulturele Komitee) word gevestig. Die eerste senior swart personeel word aangestel.

The dramatic decision about the introduction of parallel-medium teaching in 1993 signals the start of multilingualism as well as a significant growth in the admission of black students. Total student numbers are stable at approximately 9000, but black student numbers grow to 36% in 1995. Initially the change to parallel-medium impact negatively on staff teaching load and hence onresearch outputs.

Die inkrimping in staatsubsidie lei tot ernstige finansiële probleme, besparings­pogings, grootskaalse rasionalisasie van personeel in veral die fakulteit Lettere en Wysbegeerte, spanning tussen Senaat en rektoraat oor finansies – en mismoedig­heid onder personeel.

(b) 1997 – 2004:

The time of rector Stef Coetzee and his successor is the era of the new democracy and transformation. At the beginning of this phase Afrikaans parents start sending their children to other Afrikaans universities; residence become half full. Tensions arise between student groups. This is followed by the large breakthroughs in student transformation in 1997, which normalises the situation. The University becomes a leader in transformation. This leads to the acceptance of the multicultural and multilingual character, on a Christian foundation, of the University. The name changes to the University of the Free State (UFS).

Met ‘n finansiële krisis en verdere rasionalisasie van personeel op hande word die akade­miese en finansiële ‘draaistrategie’ in Januarie 2000 geloods. ‘n Drama­tiese finansiële ommekeer lei tot herinvestering in kampus­fasiliteite en toerusting, ‘n toename in personeel en beduidende verhoging in vergoeding bokant inflasie. Terselfdertyd is daar ‘n opbloei in die akademie: innoverende onderrig­programme, e-leer, ‘n fokus op programgehalte. Konsolidering van fakulteite vind plaas, die Bestuurskool word gestig, daar is sterk internasio­na­lisering en groei in navorsing. Profes­sionele bemarking en strategiese kommunikasie verander die beeld van die UV.

Studentegetalle groei dramaties van 10 000 in 2000 na meer as
23 000 in 2003/4; groei moet nou beperk word. Afrikaanse studente keer terug; koshuise kry lang waglyste. Die verhou­ding tussen wit en swart studente op die hoofkampus is rondom 50:50.

The period ends with the incorporation of the Qwaqwa en Vista Bloemfontein campuses, the approval of a new language policy which also established multilingualism in management and administration, and purposeful efforts to consolidate the foundations of an institutional culture of multiculturalism, multilingualism, non-racialism and non-sexism – a culture of tolerance, embracement and justice in diversity. The Centenary is celebrated with harmony and prosperity on the campus in 2004 (although always with a good sprinkling of unexpected challenges and problems).

2. Vanaand bring ons hulde, en sê ons dankie aan, die bouers van die UV

Oor ‘n honderd jaar het honderde, duisende mense ‘n bydrae gelewer tot die UV se ontwikkeling.

Kom ons eer en dank diegene wat, 100 jaar gelede in a baie arm gemeen­skap wat bykans verwoes is deur die Anglo-Boere oorlog, nooit opgehou droom het oor ‘n eie universiteit om die jongmense te dien, om die mense te dien – die arm Vrystaatse mense van daardie tyd.

Let us honour and thank all those who painstaking built this university from very humble beginnings, from the first fragments and embrio of a university – through a hundred years of various wars, of the struggle, of poverty, of bad times but also good times.

In elke dekade, in elke een van die honderd jaar, is hierdie instelling gebou deur die harde werk, idealisme en verbintenis (“commitment”) van leiers, akademiese personeel, steundiens­personeel, dienswerkers. Laat ons hulle eer en dank.

Let us honour the spirit of commitment and ‘vasbyt’, of ‘never let go’, the determination to overcome obstacles, of timely and pre-emptive adjustment to new challenges and new needs, which made that possible.

Kom ons vier en eer die duisende studente wat in die 100 jaar hier was, wat die spesiale tradisies en spesiale gees geskep het van Kovsiekampus, van Kovsie studentelewe – en wat gedurig nuwe tradisies en gebruike geskep (en gepleeg) het, soos net studente dit kan doen.

Let us celebrate the way this University has, in the last 20 years, once again taken up the challenge of transformation and adjusting to new needs, serving all the people, especially those most in need at this time of our history – thereby closing the circle, going fully “from post Anglo-Boer War to Post-Apartheid”.

Kom ons vier, en wees innig dankbaar vir, die wyse waarop hierdie Universiteit in die laaste 5 jaar gedraai het, finansieel sowel as akademies, en die wonderlike periode van akademiese groei en ontwikkeling en verdieping waarin ons nou staan – tesame met die geleenthede wat QwaQwa en Vista Bfn vir ons bied. Hierdie voorspoed sien ons in die nuwe fisiese aangesig van die kampus, insluitend hierdie wonderlike Eeufeeskompleks.

Let us thank God, the Almighty, who has guided this university through a tumultuous century, for always being there for us, for blessing us in so many ways. In Deo Sapientiae Lux

* * *

So: vanaand is ons hier om erkenning te gee en dankie te sê…

Soveel mense het veel vroeër hul fondament-leggende bydraes gelewer, en alles wat ons vandag hier sien, moontlik gemaak. Selfs mense uit meer onlangse jare is reeds oorlede – enkeles terwyl hulle nog in diens van die UV was, ander na hul aftrede.

‘n Bepaalde groep was bevoorreg en geseend om in die laaste ongeveer 30 jaar by die UV betrokke te kon wees, én om vandag nog in die lewe te wees. Dit is van hulle wat vanaand hier is, en wat vanaand Eeufeesmedaljes ontvang.

Geweldige moeite is gedoen om hierdie proses van seleksie en keuring so billik en deeglik as moontlik te doen. Uiteraard is so ‘n proses nie volmaak nie en sal almal nie saamstem met die uitkomste van die proses nie. Groot moeite is egter gedoen in hierdie fase om mense nie verkeerdelik uit te laat uit of in te sluit in die toekenningslys nie, in volle bewustheid dat daar waarskynlik steeds foute gemaak sal word. Onvermydelik sal daar foute wees, of mense wat uitgelaat is. Ons vra daarvoor nederig om verskoning en begrip.

Billikheid, so ‘n belangrike rigsnoer vir hierdie Universiteit, veral in hierdie tye, lei ons ook dat ons oë oop is vir die bydraes vir mense uit alle afdelings van die Universiteit, wat lei tot ‘n bepaalde balans tussen fakulteite, tussen fakulteite en steundienste, tussen poskategorieë, tussen geslag en ras, en individue soveel as mense in spanverband.

In Deo Sapientiae Lux

God bless this university / Modimo o thlonolofatse yunivesithi ena

Khotso Pula Nala

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