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22 June 2020 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Anja Aucamp
Herkulaas Combrink.
A lot can be said about forecasting and modelling, its accuracy, and how it works. Forecasting and modelling provide any decision-maker with plausible predictions or outcomes to give some kind of estimated consequence. Without this field of science, planning would be difficult, as one would simply make decisions without knowing what might potentially happen to a specific cohort, market, or product. Forecasting as a concept can be seen as a set of mathematical, statistical and/or computational tools applied to a set of assumptions about something.

This is according to Herkulaas Combrink of the Centre for Teaching and Learning at the University of the Free State (UFS) and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP), following the South African government’s modelling of how many people would contract COVID-19 and die, which has come under fire in recent times – with one expert saying it was “flawed and illogical and made wild assumptions”. 

Combrink is of the opinion that South Africa – by using the MASHA Consortium – is using the best minds that the country has to offer. The fact that the leadership took a pragmatic stance and reached out to the scientific community has mitigated a medical disaster in a healthcare system that was not ready a few months ago.

“The government is looking at as many models as they can, but is working very closely with MASHA and the CSIR” says Combrink, who has been involved in clinical surveillance, and also forms part of the modelling team during his secondment to the Free State Department of Health. 

Prof Shabhir Madhi, the former head of the SA National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), recently said that the initial modelling and fatality estimates were “back-of-envelope calculations”.

According to a news report, the government’s initial model also predicted that 600 COVID-19 patients would need treatment in intensive care units (ICU) in SA by April 1. But by April 18, the last publicly released figures showed that there were 32 COVID-19 patients in ICU.

Tried-and-tested models
The models currently used are tried-and-tested epidemiological models, mathematical models, and economic forecasting models that have been used in the past. It has now been calibrated to the specifications that we know of this disease, which come from publications. The reason why you would use more than one model is to compare models retrospectively, so that you can see what is going on.

“The government immediately reached out to the best minds in the country, and with the aid of the consortium, took a stance to throw scenarios at the different models and stress test them so that they could know that they are using the best possible models to assist in resource management and decision-making. If government responded in a different way and didn’t reach out, we might not have had a lockdown and subsequently would probably have been in a different position where the country wouldn’t be ready.” 

“We can say with a high degree of confidence that the lockdown really helps to ease and flatten the curve in the country. In light of flattening the curve, the right decisions have been made,” says Combrink.

COVID-19 still new
Unfortunately, says Combrink, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was not enough information related to the disease assumptions and it lacked the rigour and perfection associated with the already existing prediction models. Although it may feel like a lifetime, the first COVID-19 case was only reported in December 2019. Add to this that not all the parameters related to the disease were known in January, it was challenging to determine all the ‘ins and outs’ of this disease. 

“Luckily, the mathematics and statistics of an outbreak have been extensively studied, and as a result, we only needed to use the correct parameters to estimate the spread of the disease in some of the outbreak models. The Minister of Health, Dr Zweli Mkhize, and the national modellers led by Dr Harry Moultrie, were transparent with not only their projections, but also how they derived their conclusions and what parameters they used,” says Combrink.

The most important thing in modelling is to calibrate according to what is known about the disease and people, explains Combrink. “It is impossible to predict people and a disease100% accurately, because you don’t always know how a virus will react to every single person’s body and you can’t predict human behaviour.” 

“So, there is a certain degree of error and a certain degree of confidence that lies within each model, and that is why you evaluate these models on a regular basis. And this is important. You will never be able to say this is the exact number. Just like the weather. If the weather patterns were predicted to be 12 degrees tomorrow, and it turns out to be 16 degrees, you at least packed a jersey. You knew it was going to be cold. The chances that the weather predicts that it will be 12 and it turns out to be 57 degrees, is virtually zero. It gives you more or less an indication what to prepare for

Models are useful, but can also be wrong
Combrink says if you want to apply any model, you need to understand the assumptions and the limitations of the models. Given a certain set of criteria – what are the assumptions you are making and what are the expected outcomes – you can only act according to that. He says, as time goes by, we can now see that there are some models that yield much better results because we can now compare what was predicted two months ago and what is actually happening. 
 “Some models are useful. We can get a better understanding of the pandemic’s possible trajectories or gain an understanding of the impact that different interventions have made. Models are used for decision-making. These decision-making strategies can save lives. That is the purpose of models and modelling during these times.”

Combrink uses the weather forecast to explain how modelling works and that models can be wrong. “Yes, models are wrong all the time. Take the concept of weather as an example. How many times has the weather forecast predicted that there is an 80% chance of rain, and then it doesn’t rain? Models can give you a certain degree of confidence in an outcome related to a specific event or scenario, so that you, with some degree of confidence, can go forth and plan accordingly.” 

“However, models can’t tell you what exactly will happen tomorrow, or the day after. It is not a crystal ball, and it is not a mirror into the future, but it can give you an indication of what is likely possible related to a specific scenario if you used the right variables. Let us consider that there is an 80% chance of rain in the weather forecast; will you a) go to work without an umbrella or b) with an umbrella? If it doesn’t rain, you are at least prepared for the rain because you took your umbrella. If you didn’t take the umbrella and it does rain, you may run into trouble because you did not appreciate the warning of the weather forecast. I think it is this concept that makes modelling so powerful. You can use it as a tool to prepare for things, in the event that it does happen, with a certain degree of confidence. Just like the previous example, there is also a 20% chance that it might not rain, but wouldn’t you want to be prepared?” explains Combrink. 
 
Models are tools that can be used to base decisions on
No one truly knows how the pandemic will play out, and according to Combrink, it can be said with a high degree of confidence that if nothing is done about the pandemic, we know how it would turn out from a healthcare perspective. 
“If you look at some of the global projections they gave months ago (in January and February) and compare it to what they said for March and April, you can see that they predicted, with a fairly good degree of confidence, what actually happened in certain countries. We have a good idea in terms of numbers and how it will play out, but what we will never know is what the impact will be on the socio-economic status of a person, the economy, and the impact on other diseases.”

“We do not know what is going to happen when it comes to mental health and COVID-19, for example. This is why modelling is a multidimensional approach, requiring inputs from various fields. Models can help us in the same way the weather forecast does. It is a tool that we can use to base certain decisions on, to be more prepared, because without it we won’t know to pack an ‘umbrella’ if it is predicted to rain or pack a ‘jersey’ if it is projected to cool down.”

News Archive

Questions about racial integration in residences answered
2007-07-31

Answers to frequently asked questions about the racial integration of student residences at the UFS

1. Why does the UFS want to change the current situation in the student residences?

There are many reasons why a new approach to placement in the student residences is necessary. However, the main reason is of an educational nature. As a university, the UFS should create an environment in its residences where students can learn to appreciate and respect the rich diversity that is on offer at the university. A university accommodates students from many different backgrounds in terms of race, language, religion, economic status, culture and other aspects. If a student can learn to appreciate the value in this rich diversity at university, he or she will also be able to appreciate the value of this diversity in the workplace and broader society.

The current situation of predominantly white and predominantly black residences has not been able to cultivate such an appreciation for diversity and respect for one another as human beings, and will not equip students with the knowledge and skills required to manage diversity.

Besides this, there are many other areas of life in the residences that need attention. For one, we need to urgently establish a human rights culture in the residences so that the rights of all students can be respected. We need to address the abuse of alcohol, provide disabled students with their rightful place, and last but not least, really entrench a culture of learning in student residences.

Let us make the residences places we can be proud of – places of learning, of diversity, of respect; places of growth and development. This is the ideal we should all strive to achieve.  

2. Why does the management want to force us to integrate?

It is a false argument to debate the issue in terms of “force”. Any decision by a University, or any other organisation, regarding matters of policy, rules and regulations implies a restriction on the choice of an individual and an obligation to comply.  What we should focus on is whether this decision of the Council is in the best interests of our students.

The management of the university believes that it has a responsibility to give students the best education possible, not only in terms of what you learn in the lecture rooms, but especially in the residences as well. The residences can be very powerful places of learning about matters of great importance, both academic and non-academic.

The parallel-medium language policy separates students into largely white/Afrikaans and black/English classes. Efforts are being made to bridge this divide in the classroom, but we can also try to eliminate it in the residences.

The university is committed to building a new culture for the entire institution that is based on values and principles – such as an academic culture, non-racialism, respect for human rights and diversity – among staff and students.

In the context of student residences, the application of these values and principles still allows substantial room for the voluntary exercising of choice by individuals as well as by Residence Committees, notably with regard to the placement of students (they can still place 50 percent of first-year students), as well as the determination of the future character and traditions of a diverse residence.

Furthermore, students can still choose their residences (subject to availability of places), can choose a roommate, and so forth.

3. What about freedom of association?

The rights we enjoy in a democracy must be balanced against other rights, as well as the laws of the country. This means that the right to freedom of association must be balanced against laws that make it illegal to discriminate against other people on the basis of race, language or religion, for instance.

Freedom of association pertains to the right of individuals to form voluntary organisations such as clubs or private boarding houses, or their right to join or not join existing organisations.  You exercise that right when you decide to become a student of the UFS, and again when you choose to live in one of its residences.

However, once you have decided to join an organisation voluntarily, you cannot subsequently demand that that organisation should provide a “club” or residence to your liking where, for instance, you only associate with your choice of co-members. You must accept the policies of that organisation.

In any case, how would that right of yours be balanced against the right of another individual who wishes to associate with a different set of co-members? (For instance – what about the freedom of a student to associate with students NOT from his own background, but indeed from another language, cultural, racial or economic background?) 

The constitutional right to freedom of association can, in any case, not be used to exclude or discriminate on the basis of race or religion (Section 18 of the Bill of Rights).

Besides, the new policy guidelines will still make provision for freedom of association. This right can be exercised freely within a diverse residence with regard to friendships, joint academic work, socialising, sport, etc.

4. Will residences not lose their traditions?

The University appreciates that there are many valuable elements of tradition in residences. However, we must bear in mind that the traditions and character of student residences have evolved and changed over time, and they will continue to evolve and to change. In addition, we do not need to accept all aspects of residence life purely on the basis of tradition, including the unacceptably high level of alcohol abuse and unsavoury, humiliating and discriminatory orientation practices. The new approach to integrated residences provides the opportunity to retain the positive aspects of the current traditions and character, but also to develop new traditions and give residences a new character.

We can now establish a tradition and a character for each residence that are reconcilable with the values of the University as a place of scholarship and are aligned with the human rights approach of our country’s Constitution, the laws of our country and the strengths and diversity of the students in a particular residence.

5. Have students been involved in this process? Is there a role for them to play after the decision has been taken by the Council of the UFS?

In the first semester of 2007, during two rounds of consultations, the primes, SRC and student organisations were consulted about the proposed new placement policy to increase diversity in residences. Some residences also made written submissions on the matter (such as Madelief, Soetdoring, Wag-'n-bietjie, Vergeet-my-nie, Emily Hobhouse). Other residences requested and were granted more time, but did not make any submissions in the end (such as Reitz and Armentum).

Management also had several meetings with the above-mentioned structures to hear first-hand from students their concerns and solutions regarding possible challenges presented by integration in residences.

During these interactions, several excellent ideas and proposals were put forward by students. These views had a definite impact on the eventual proposal that was taken to the University Council, in particular regarding the minimum level of diversity (30%) in junior residences and the fact that residences still want to have a say in the placement of students, rather than the placement decision being left in the hands of Management alone (hence the 50% placement portion of residences). Management values the effort that was put into the process by the primes and residence committees, and thanks them for their contributions.

However, it should be stressed that consultation should not be understood as a process of negotiation, nor does it imply that consensus must be reached. What it means is that Management must take a considered decision after hearing the views of stakeholders.

Management would like students to continue to provide input and ideas regarding the implementation details of the policy guidelines. Task teams have been established and students will be informed about how they can interact with the task teams on an ongoing basis.

6. But integration in the residences was tried in the past (in the late 1990s), and then it failed. Why will it work now?

Yes, the University of the Free State did integrate its residences as far back as 1993, and for a few years it worked. The UFS did it at that time and is now doing so again, because it is the right thing to do. Yet it is important to understand why the previous attempt at racial integration in residences was not successful.

Firstly, both black and white students were much polarised because of the apartheid past. Secondly, there was insufficient management support for students in the residences, the student leaders generally as well as residence heads, in terms of dealing with diversity and related issues. Thirdly, the institutional culture of the UFS and the residences in particular was not addressed as part of broader transformation and integration in residences, whereas it is now being addressed.

In addition, the current decision to integrate residences has the benefit of being implemented after several more years of integration in schooling, sport, workplaces and other aspects of life.

This decision is also based on Management’s commitment to give all the possible support it can to this process.

This is a very important initiative that the UFS is undertaking. Management, in co-operation with students, must ensure that it succeeds. Integrated residences that produce high-quality graduates equipped to deal with the challenges of the workplace and our society is a worthwhile ideal we should all strive to achieve.

If you would like to make a proposal regarding the implementation and practical aspects of the new policy, please send it to the following email address: rector@ufs.ac.za

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