Latest News Archive

Please select Category, Year, and then Month to display items
Previous Archive
22 June 2020 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Anja Aucamp
Herkulaas Combrink.

A lot can be said about forecasting and modelling, its accuracy, and how it works. Forecasting and modelling provide any decision-maker with plausible predictions or outcomes to give some kind of estimated consequence. Without this field of science, planning would be difficult, as one would simply make decisions without knowing what might potentially happen to a specific cohort, market, or product. Forecasting as a concept can be seen as a set of mathematical, statistical and/or computational tools applied to a set of assumptions about something.

This is according to Herkulaas Combrink of the Centre for Teaching and Learning at the University of the Free State (UFS) and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP), following the South African government’s modelling of how many people would contract COVID-19 and die, which has come under fire in recent times – with one expert saying it was “flawed and illogical and made wild assumptions”. 

Combrink is of the opinion that South Africa – by using the MASHA Consortium – is using the best minds that the country has to offer. The fact that the leadership took a pragmatic stance and reached out to the scientific community has mitigated a medical disaster in a healthcare system that was not ready a few months ago.

“The government is looking at as many models as they can, but is working very closely with MASHA and the CSIR” says Combrink, who has been involved in clinical surveillance, and also forms part of the modelling team during his secondment to the Free State Department of Health. 

Prof Shabhir Madhi, the former head of the SA National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), recently said that the initial modelling and fatality estimates were “back-of-envelope calculations”.

According to a news report, the government’s initial model also predicted that 600 COVID-19 patients would need treatment in intensive care units (ICU) in SA by April 1. But by April 18, the last publicly released figures showed that there were 32 COVID-19 patients in ICU.

Tried-and-tested models
The models currently used are tried-and-tested epidemiological models, mathematical models, and economic forecasting models that have been used in the past. It has now been calibrated to the specifications that we know of this disease, which come from publications. The reason why you would use more than one model is to compare models retrospectively, so that you can see what is going on.

“The government immediately reached out to the best minds in the country, and with the aid of the consortium, took a stance to throw scenarios at the different models and stress test them so that they could know that they are using the best possible models to assist in resource management and decision-making. If government responded in a different way and didn’t reach out, we might not have had a lockdown and subsequently would probably have been in a different position where the country wouldn’t be ready.” 

“We can say with a high degree of confidence that the lockdown really helps to ease and flatten the curve in the country. In light of flattening the curve, the right decisions have been made,” says Combrink.

COVID-19 still new
Unfortunately, says Combrink, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was not enough information related to the disease assumptions and it lacked the rigour and perfection associated with the already existing prediction models. Although it may feel like a lifetime, the first COVID-19 case was only reported in December 2019. Add to this that not all the parameters related to the disease were known in January, it was challenging to determine all the ‘ins and outs’ of this disease. 

“Luckily, the mathematics and statistics of an outbreak have been extensively studied, and as a result, we only needed to use the correct parameters to estimate the spread of the disease in some of the outbreak models. The Minister of Health, Dr Zweli Mkhize, and the national modellers led by Dr Harry Moultrie, were transparent with not only their projections, but also how they derived their conclusions and what parameters they used,” says Combrink.

The most important thing in modelling is to calibrate according to what is known about the disease and people, explains Combrink. “It is impossible to predict people and a disease100% accurately, because you don’t always know how a virus will react to every single person’s body and you can’t predict human behaviour.” 

“So, there is a certain degree of error and a certain degree of confidence that lies within each model, and that is why you evaluate these models on a regular basis. And this is important. You will never be able to say this is the exact number. Just like the weather. If the weather patterns were predicted to be 12 degrees tomorrow, and it turns out to be 16 degrees, you at least packed a jersey. You knew it was going to be cold. The chances that the weather predicts that it will be 12 and it turns out to be 57 degrees, is virtually zero. It gives you more or less an indication what to prepare for

Models are useful, but can also be wrong
Combrink says if you want to apply any model, you need to understand the assumptions and the limitations of the models. Given a certain set of criteria – what are the assumptions you are making and what are the expected outcomes – you can only act according to that. He says, as time goes by, we can now see that there are some models that yield much better results because we can now compare what was predicted two months ago and what is actually happening. 
 “Some models are useful. We can get a better understanding of the pandemic’s possible trajectories or gain an understanding of the impact that different interventions have made. Models are used for decision-making. These decision-making strategies can save lives. That is the purpose of models and modelling during these times.”

Combrink uses the weather forecast to explain how modelling works and that models can be wrong. “Yes, models are wrong all the time. Take the concept of weather as an example. How many times has the weather forecast predicted that there is an 80% chance of rain, and then it doesn’t rain? Models can give you a certain degree of confidence in an outcome related to a specific event or scenario, so that you, with some degree of confidence, can go forth and plan accordingly.” 

“However, models can’t tell you what exactly will happen tomorrow, or the day after. It is not a crystal ball, and it is not a mirror into the future, but it can give you an indication of what is likely possible related to a specific scenario if you used the right variables. Let us consider that there is an 80% chance of rain in the weather forecast; will you a) go to work without an umbrella or b) with an umbrella? If it doesn’t rain, you are at least prepared for the rain because you took your umbrella. If you didn’t take the umbrella and it does rain, you may run into trouble because you did not appreciate the warning of the weather forecast. I think it is this concept that makes modelling so powerful. You can use it as a tool to prepare for things, in the event that it does happen, with a certain degree of confidence. Just like the previous example, there is also a 20% chance that it might not rain, but wouldn’t you want to be prepared?” explains Combrink. 
 
Models are tools that can be used to base decisions on
No one truly knows how the pandemic will play out, and according to Combrink, it can be said with a high degree of confidence that if nothing is done about the pandemic, we know how it would turn out from a healthcare perspective. 
“If you look at some of the global projections they gave months ago (in January and February) and compare it to what they said for March and April, you can see that they predicted, with a fairly good degree of confidence, what actually happened in certain countries. We have a good idea in terms of numbers and how it will play out, but what we will never know is what the impact will be on the socio-economic status of a person, the economy, and the impact on other diseases.”

“We do not know what is going to happen when it comes to mental health and COVID-19, for example. This is why modelling is a multidimensional approach, requiring inputs from various fields. Models can help us in the same way the weather forecast does. It is a tool that we can use to base certain decisions on, to be more prepared, because without it we won’t know to pack an ‘umbrella’ if it is predicted to rain or pack a ‘jersey’ if it is projected to cool down.”

News Archive

Inauguration of Prof Francis Petersen as 14th Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS
2017-05-23

Description: Prof Petersen Inauguration Charl Devenish photo Tags: Prof Petersen Inauguration Charl Devenish photo

Dr Khotso Mokhele, Chancellor of the UFS, robes Prof Francis Petersen as Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS.
Photo: Charl Devenish

“At the UFS, we want to produce graduates for the world, and we need to ensure that we use our knowledge to uplift society”
— Prof Francis Petersen, 14th Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the University of the Free State (UFS)

On Friday 19 May 2017, the University of the Free State (UFS) celebrated the inauguration of its 14th Vice-Chancellor and Rector, Prof Francis Petersen. The formal inauguration was held in the Odeion Theatre on the Bloemfontein Campus. The ceremony was preceded by a week-long welcoming programme on the three UFS campuses.

The guest list included representatives from local and provincial government, vice-chancellors and rectors from across South Africa, and senior members of the university’s executive management.

During the inaugural address, Prof Petersen paid tribute to his predecessors for the role they played in making the university what it is today. This included former rectors and vice-chancellors who attended the ceremony, such as Prof Francois Retief and Prof Frederick Fourie, and Prof Stef Coetzee and Prof Jonathan Jansen who were unable to attend.

Prof Petersen characterised 2015 and 2016 as watershed years for the South African higher-education system. “The Rhodes Must Fall, and subsequent Fees Must Fall student and staff protests challenged us, and re-energised a critical engagement around the purpose of the university in an equal society, both as a site of complicity and as a potential agent for social change,” said Prof Petersen.

He committed himself to developing the UFS into an institution that will have an even greater impact than before.

“This institution I am striving to establish will be one that responds positively to inclusivity, diversity, and transformation, and which can incorporate these values into our curriculum, scholarship, and research in a productive way,” said Prof Petersen.

Prof Petersen emphasised the importance of the three-campus model. “The University of the Free State is ONE university with three campuses: the Bloemfontein Campus, our South Campus, and the Qwaqwa Campus. I am committed to align the activities of the three campuses, and to integrate our activities to a greater extent.

“We must work together to infuse each campus with the values we have identified as essential if we are to make our mark as a united University of the Free State: academic excellence, diversity and inclusivity, and innovation.”

The Chancellor, Dr Khotso Mokhele, had the honour of handing over the gown to Prof Petersen. Prof Lis Lange, Vice-Rector: Academic, explained the relationship between the university and the Basotho people, and how this relationship is honoured through the official procession gowns of the UFS. The Basotho blanket is worn by kings, and the university therefore hopes that the symbolism of the gown would be a source of inspiration to Prof Petersen.

The event was concluded by congratulatory messages from former colleagues and the President of the Student Representative Council on the Bloemfontein Campus, SK Luwaca. The event was elegant and graceful – the inaugural address was thought-provoking and inspiring.


 

Official Inauguration Ceremony:

19 May 2017
Bloemfontein Campus

 Description: Official Inauguration photo small Tags: Official Inauguration photo small


"I challenge you to dream big and do big." - Prof Petersen

 

Photo Caption: Dr Khotso Mokhele, Chancellor of the UFS, robes Prof Francis Petersen as Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS.
Photo: Johan Roux

Short biography of Prof Francis Petersen
Inaugural address: 19 May 2017
Transcription of the ceremony
Photo Gallery

Video


 

Welcoming Ceremonies:

The week of 11-19 May 2017 was one of the highlights in this year’s calendar for staff and students of the University of the Free State (UFS), with various ceremonies taking place to welcome Prof Francis Petersen – who assumed his duties on 1 April 2017 – as the 14th Vice-Chancellor and Rector. The festivities culminated in the official inauguration ceremony at the Bloemfontein Campus on 19 May 2017.
 
The Qwaqwa Campus welcoming ceremony took place on Thursday 11 May 2017, attracting a wide spectrum of community leaders from the area. Prof Petersen was welcomed by representatives from the two trade unions, National Education Health and Allied Workers Union (Nehawu) and UVPERSU, as well as representatives from the Student Representative Council (SRC), the Thabo Mofutsanyana Education District, and the House of Traditional Leaders. Paramount Queen Mopeli of the Bakoena Royal House bestowed a special honour upon Prof Petersen by clothing him in a traditional Basotho blanket and hat. She said, "From our heart of hearts, welcome, Prof Francis ..., and all Godspeed during your tenure."
 
The South Campus in Bloemfontein hosted a welcoming ceremony for the new Vice-Chancellor and Rector on 18 May 2017. The ceremony included a number of vocal performances and messages from various stakeholder groups. The same afternoon, the Institute for Reconciliation and Social Justice (IRSJ) also facilitated a panel discussion, titled Diversity, inclusivity, and social justice and the renewed call for decolonisation, in the Albert Wessels Auditorium (AWO) on the Bloemfontein Campus.

The welcoming ceremonies culminated in an event in the Callie Human Centre on Friday 19 May 2017 at the Bloemfontein Campus, with a number of performances by musicians associated with the UFS, marimbas, drum majorettes from Jim Fouche Secondary School, the Grey College Gumboots, and school choirs from Eunice Secondary School, Brebner Primary School, and Willem Postma Primary School. Representatives from key stakeholders such as Nehawu, UVPERSU, the Campus Ministries Forum, SRC, Alumni, Convocation, and the UFS Council had the opportunity to convey their messages of welcome to Prof Petersen.
 
The formal inauguration ceremony took place in the Odeion Theatre on the Bloemfontein Campus the same day.


 

Qwaqwa Campus ceremony:

11 May 2017
Qwaqwa Campus

 Description: Prof Petersen with the queen 2 Tags: Prof Petersen with the queen 2

 

"Qwaqwa Campus is the perfect laboratory for sustainable sciences.” – Prof Petersen

 

Photo caption: Paramount Queen Mopeli of the Bakoena Royal House with Prof Petersen and his wife, Cheslyn.
Photo:
Mamosa Makaya

Photo Gallery
Video

Read the full story
Transcription of the ceremony


 

South Campus ceremony:

18 May 2017
South Campus

 Description: South Campus welcoming Tags: South Campus welcoming

 

"South Campus: you aspire excellence, adding to diversity and you are innovative in what you do." - Prof Petersen

Photo caption: Flag bearers and drummers walking to the Madiba Arena.
Photo: Hannes Pieterse

Photo Gallery

Read the full story
Transcription of the ceremony

 


 

Bloemfontein Campus panel discussion:

Panel discussion: Diversity, inclusivity and social justice and the renewed call for decolonisation
18 May 2017
Bloemfontein Campus

 Description: Panel discussion 18 May 2017 Tags: Panel discussion 18 May 2017


"The UFS should be a place of belonging for everyone." - Prof Petersen

 

Photo caption: from left: SK Luwaca (SRC President, Bloemfontein Campus), Prof Elelwani Ramugondo (UCT), Prof Francis Petersen (UFS), Prof Melissa Steyn (WITS), Prof Andre Keet (UFS)
Photo: Lelanie de Wet

Photo Gallery

Read the full story
Transcription of panel discussion




 

Bloemfontein Campus ceremony:

19 May 2017
Bloemfontein Campus

 Description: Bloem welcoming ceremony on 19 May 2017 Tags: Bloem welcoming ceremony on 19 May 2017


"I can just say, Wow! I've experienced a lot during the welcoming functions on all three campuses." - Prof Petersen

 

Photo caption: Prof Francis Petersen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS
Photo: Rulanzen Martin

Photo Gallery

Read the full story
Transcription of the ceremony



 

 

Description: Inauguration and welcoming of Prof Petersen combined gallery Tags: Inauguration and welcoming of Prof Petersen combined gallery

Photo gallery of Inauguration and Welcoming Ceremonies

 

 

 

 

We use cookies to make interactions with our websites and services easy and meaningful. To better understand how they are used, read more about the UFS cookie policy. By continuing to use this site you are giving us your consent to do this.

Accept