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12 May 2020 | Story Prof Francis Petersen | Photo Sonia Small
Prof Francis Petersen.

In a rapidly changing, uncertain and complex world, the role that universities are playing as the engines of social mobility, as drivers of the economy and as generators of new ideas, is now more critical than ever.  Due to the universal nature of knowledge, universities are global in scope – a space that encourages new ideas, controversy, inquiry, and argument and challenges orthodox views, but they are also deeply entrenched in their local environment, influenced by socio-economic and political dynamics.  There is an expectation that universities should exhibit great levels of responsiveness and public accountability, with higher levels of trust in higher education, and between higher education and government, and higher education and the public.  The challenge for both higher education and government is to allow institutional autonomy without oppressive accountability.  

Over the past few years, the purpose of universities has been challenged in relation to their role in society, their advocacy for speaking truth to power, their continuous strive to be great universities without being elitist, and their ability to function in an age of populism. The Trump administration and, more recently, Brexit have demonstrated that there is a decline in the respect for evidence and advice from subject-specific experts.  It seems (as in the case of the Trump administration) as if empirical reality does not matter, nor does empirical reasoning form the basis of public policy – a political place that is becoming increasingly anti-intellectual.  Emotion and personal belief have been shown to carry more weight than objective facts and evidence in terms of influencing public opinion.  Fake news and ‘the alternative truth’ have also challenged the fundamental principles of a university – academic freedom and the generation of new knowledge in the pursuit of truth.

A digitally unequal society
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown deep fault lines in our society – stark poverty and inequality – that universities should engage with (and they do); however, they cannot eliminate it on their own, but can be part of the solution.  South Africa is the most unequal society in the world.  Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the South African economy was already in deep trouble, with sovereign downgrades by all the rating agencies and with an unemployment rate close to 30%.   The national lockdown, in an attempt to ‘flatten the infection curve’ and hence manage the response of the national health system to COVID-19 cases, has added to the pressure on the economy.  It is envisaged that a large number of people (estimated between 3 and 7 million South Africans) will lose their jobs after the national lockdown period, adding to poverty and an already high unemployment rate.  Even during the lockdown period, there are many South Africans living in crowded spaces, hence finding it difficult to practise social distancing, may not have running water and proper sanitation, and possibly do not have regular access to food.  

As schools and the post-school education and training sectors move online with their learning, it further shows how digitally unequal our society really is – access to connectivity, data, and an appropriate digital device is a challenge, and electricity is not evenly distributed or is non-existent in our society.  These institutions, within the environment of digital inequality, are ensuring that digital equity is maintained as far as possible.  Many churches, business leaders, and certain politicians have called for a different social pact between business, labour, and government to address the state of the economy – any such action, however, must be supplemented by concrete measures for social reform.

Regaining trust in universities
But perhaps this pandemic has also created an opportunity for science and evidence to regain credibility in informing government decisions and public trust, and for universities to demonstrate respect for evidence. During the initial stages (early March) of COVID-19 in South Africa, the epidemiologists and virologists have shown through confirmed data from the National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) that South Africa was in the early phase of the infection curve – also interpreted to be the relatively low-risk phase of the curve; this would be the right time to apply the principle of social distancing.  It allowed certain organisations (such as universities) to pro-actively suspend part of their activities so as to minimise the number of people in their operational environment, well before the national lockdown was announced on 26 March – a decision based on science.

Through data and proper analyses, the NICD, other scientific bodies and the Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19 provided evidence-based information to government and the public, from which meaningful decisions could be taken.  The South African government has made it perfectly clear that decisions around COVID-19 will be made based on the science associated with this pandemic – a stance to be applauded.  Hence, the risk-adjusted approach of ‘opening up’ the economy through easing the lockdown measures but constantly monitoring the infection curve is an excellent example of risk management while continuously assessing the risks.

Universities, science laboratories, and pharmaceutical companies around the globe are hard at work to develop an effective vaccine for COVID-19, which is another opportunity to demonstrate how science can assist in protecting people from this terrible virus. Universities are making advances in personal protective equipment (PPE), the development of new technologies for non-ICU provision of oxygen to COVID-19 patients, more advanced methods of testing (for the virus) to reduce turnaround times, and various other scientific studies.  

This platform is giving universities a renewed impetus to use science and scientific developments to advance societal agendas such as climate change, poverty and inequality, public health and social justice (ethics of care) – and more immediate – assisting in re-building a strong South African economy.  It is an opportunity for the public and politicians to regain trust in universities, but it is also an opportunity for universities to profile their public intellectuals so that the value of science and evidence-based output is part of policy debates and informed decision-making.  However, in doing so, universities must strengthen their relationship with society at large, be inquiry-driven, and at the same time be learning and co-creating.

Prof Francis Petersen is Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the University of the Free State.

News Archive

Fight against Ebola virus requires more research
2014-10-22

 

Dr Abdon Atangana
Photo: Ifa Tshishonge
Dr Abdon Atangana, a postdoctoral researcher in the Institute for Groundwater Studies at the University of the Free State (UFS), wrote an article related to the Ebola virus: Modelling the Ebola haemorrhagic fever with the beta-derivative: Deathly infection disease in West African countries.

“The filoviruses belong to a virus family named filoviridae. This virus can cause unembellished haemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman monkeys. In literature, only two members of this virus family have been mentioned, namely the Marburg virus and the Ebola virus. However, so far only five species of the Ebola virus have been identified, including:  Ivory Coast, Sudan, Zaire, Reston and Bundibugyo.

“Among these families, the Ebola virus is the only member of the Zaire Ebola virus species and also the most dangerous, being responsible for the largest number of outbreaks.

“Ebola is an unusual, but fatal virus that causes bleeding inside and outside the body. As the virus spreads through the body, it damages the immune system and organs. Ultimately, it causes the blood-clotting levels in cells to drop. This leads to severe, uncontrollable bleeding.

Since all physical problems can be modelled via mathematical equation, Dr Atangana aimed in his research (the paper was published in BioMed Research International with impact factor 2.701) to analyse the spread of this deadly disease using mathematical equations. We shall propose a model underpinning the spread of this disease in a given Sub-Saharan African country,” he said.

The mathematical equations are used to predict the future behaviour of the disease, especially the spread of the disease among the targeted population. These mathematical equations are called differential equation and are only using the concept of rate of change over time.

However, there is several definitions for derivative, and the choice of the derivative used for such a model is very important, because the more accurate the model, the better results will be obtained.  The classical derivative describes the change of rate, but it is an approximation of the real velocity of the object under study. The beta derivative is the modification of the classical derivative that takes into account the time scale and also has a new parameter that can be considered as the fractional order.  

“I have used the beta derivative to model the spread of the fatal disease called Ebola, which has killed many people in the West African countries, including Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, since December 2013,” he said.

The constructed mathematical equations were called Atangana’s Beta Ebola System of Equations (ABESE). “We did the investigation of the stable endemic points and presented the Eigen-Values using the Jacobian method. The homotopy decomposition method was used to solve the resulted system of equations. The convergence of the method was presented and some numerical simulations were done for different values of beta.

“The simulations showed that our model is more realistic for all betas less than 0.5.  The model revealed that, if there were no recovery precaution for a given population in a West African country, the entire population of that country would all die in a very short period of time, even if the total number of the infected population is very small.  In simple terms, the prediction revealed a fast spread of the virus among the targeted population. These results can be used to educate and inform people about the rapid spread of the deadly disease,” he said.

The spread of Ebola among people only occurs through direct contact with the blood or body fluids of a person after symptoms have developed. Body fluid that may contain the Ebola virus includes saliva, mucus, vomit, faeces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine and semen. Entry points include the nose, mouth, eyes, open wounds, cuts and abrasions. Note should be taken that contact with objects contaminated by the virus, particularly needles and syringes, may also transmit the infection.

“Based on the predictions in this paper, we are calling on more research regarding this disease; in particular, we are calling on researchers to pay attention to finding an efficient cure or more effective prevention, to reduce the risk of contamination,” Dr Atangana said.


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