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28 September 2020 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Pexels
Dr Trevor Manuel, Chairperson: Old Mutual Limited and former minister of finance (top left), Ms Ann Bernstein, Executive Director: Centre for Development and Enterprise (CDE) (top right), and Mr Mondli Makhanya, Editor-in-Chief: City Press (bottom left), were the panellists at the University of the Free State’s (UFS) second Thought-Leader Webinar for 2020, which focused on the economy. Dr Max du Preez, Editor: Vrye Weekblad (bottom right), was the facilitator.

The state is broken, and the country cannot move forward unless the state is fixed and bold, tough decisions are made.

This is the opinion of panellists who took part in the University of the Free State’s (UFS) second Thought-Leader Webinar on Wednesday (23 September), which focused on the economy. This webinar is part of a series with the theme ‘Post-COVID-19, Post-Crisis.’  Dr Trevor Manuel, Chairperson: Old Mutual Limited and former minister of finance, Ms Ann Bernstein, Executive Director: Centre for Development and Enterprise (CDE), and Mr Mondli Makhanya, Editor-in-Chief: City Press, were the panellists. Dr Max du Preez, Editor: Vrye Weekblad, was the facilitator.

Country needs reform

Both Bernstein and Makhanya said that the state is broken, with Bernstein saying that the state is corrupt, and government decision-making bandwidth is much weaker than it used to be.

“The country is in a very serious situation and cannot do more of the same. We have to reflect honestly on what got us into this terrible situation, and then COVID exacerbated all our problems. What got us into it and what we have done previously has to change.”

“The country needs reform and it is my view that we will not move forward unless government’s credibility as a reformer is establish, and two and a half years of promises and very little action of any significance has undermined that credibility. I think you have to start from that,” says Bernstein.

According to her, bold choices must be made if we are to save what growth we have, if we are to expand growth, to expand more labour intensively. 

“South Africa has all the potential to be a great African economy, with all sorts of strengths that we could build on. But we keep disappointing.”

Building a capable state

Makhanya said going forward, a good starting point is to fix and build a capable state. “The fundamental thing of the NDP (National Development Plan) – a plan that can take us forward – was the part about a capable state.” 
“The state is very broken, and there is no way we can move forward while the state is as broken as it is now. This is what we saw during lockdown, when it was so easy for certain elements to steal from very essential funds that were meant to save lives. It was a classic example of a broken state.”

Another thing we absolutely need to do, is to have one message and one conversation.  

“Tough decisions should be taken. It was frustrating again to find us as a country talking about where to find R10,5 billion to fund our ailing airline. Why is this a priority? We know what our priorities are. We know Eskom is a priority, we know food security is a priority, unemployment is a priority. Why is it necessary for us as a country to have this hectic debate about having a national airline?” 

“Decisions need to be taken around the health of the fiscus, decisions around the public wage bill, around issues of freeing up enterprise, and about reforms. The decisions will take a long time to make and some of them will be unpopular, but they need to be taken,” says Makhanya.

According to him, President Cyril Ramaphosa needs to take these decisions. He also needs to tell himself that he would be happy to serve one term, and that he does not need friends to vote him back as leader of the ANC and as President of the country in 2024. President Ramaphosa needs to do things now, knowing that he will leave a legacy of having fixed a country, and importantly, having fixed the economy.

Announcement of hard lockdown saw the economy hurtling down a cliff

Dr Manuel said the hard lockdown announced at the end of March saw the economy hurtling down a cliff. This happened after three successive quarters of contraction. “We find ourselves at the base of this ravine, having tumbled down. How do we extricate the South African economy from where we are given the geography of where we are?”

According to him, the country has fewer options than we would like to imagine. 

“I think the 51% contraction in the second quarter must introduce a sense of urgency and focus the mind. We are not alone. But we need to be rigorously honest about where we are. And we need to also ask ourselves tough questions of whether we have the wherewithal to reconstruct the economy,” says Dr Manuel. 

According to him, the $3,4 billion borrowed from the IMF is unlikely to be sufficient, and there is a growing consensus that the full-on standby facility from the IMF will probably be needed.  

He says while the RFID has no obvious conditions, it is important to pay attention to the fine print. “In the letter of intent, which was jointly signed by the Governor of the Reserve Bank and the Minister of Finance, we committed to take action to revoke the upward trajectory of the debt-to-GDP ratio, and also a commitment to remove the structural impediments to growth. So, it is quite important to understand what we committed to and against what we will be measured.” 
“The IMF, in accepting those commitments, also warned about the urgency and the sequencing of the series of policy measures to prevent – in their words – the risk of social unrest. They also raised a series of red flags that are important in the context. The first is the growth of the public sector wage bill, something that is in the public domain and about which NEHAWU is threatening to strike. The second issue is the scale of transfers to state-owned enterprises. Thirdly, the risk of the curtailment of infrastructures.”

There has also been a flurry of policy writing and discussions. The National Treasury, Business for South Africa, and the ANC have written their own papers on reconstruction, growth, and building an inclusive economy.  According to Dr Manuel, however, the question is how to get things done. 

“The concern I have about these papers is that there is inadequate attention to public finance, which sets a frame for all economic development that needs to take place. And it is basically an equation – what you have to spend is the sum of what to tax and what you can borrow.”

What the country needs right now is clarity on the trade-offs, and not even the social partners paper deals with trade-off clearly enough. If you put money into an airline, it has to come from somewhere else. Your ability to govern and exercise choices is therefore severely limited.

News Archive

Agriculture must adapt to change
2008-11-28

 

At the launch of "50 years of agriculture" at the UFS were, from the left: Mr Corwyn Botha: Chairman: Agri Business Chamber and Managing Director: Cape Agri Group, Mr Motsepe Matlala, President of NAFU, Mr Hans van der Merwe, Executive Head: Agri SA, Prof. Herman van Schalkwyk: Dean: Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences at the UFS, and Mr Sugar Ramakarane, Head: Department of Agriculture, Free State Province.
Photo: Lacea Loader

 “The biggest factor driving agriculture today is change. Our major challenge is to adapt to this changing environment.” This was stated by Prof. Herman van Schalkwyk, Dean of the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences at the University of the Free State (UFS) during the recent celebration of the faculty’s “50 years in agriculture”.

Prof. Van Schalkwyk stated that the most important changes include power relationships in supply chains, consumer demand, new products and technology in agriculture, government action and developments in neighbouring states. “At the moment there is very little cooperation between small-scale farmers, small-scale farmers and commercial farmers and farmers and processors. There are also low levels of processing, low levels of value adding and a lack of creative thinking in agriculture," he said.

“This must change – we need comprehensive agricultural support and new business ideas in agriculture. We need better infrastructure, value chain financing and improved institutional support,” he said.

Speaking about agriculture and institutional co-operation in the Free State, Mr Sugar Ramakarane, Chief Director of the Free State Department of Agriculture, said that the UFS plays a vital role in bringing together organised agriculture in the province. “The responsibility of transforming our economy cannot be done by government alone. We need partners like the UFS to assist us with bringing together the two most important stakeholders of the agricultural sector, namely the National Farmers’ Union (NAFU) and Free State Agriculture. You can assist us with harnessing co-operation and providing practical solutions," he said

Mr Ramakarane said that his department is aware of the university’s good work with emerging farmers. “But, I want to encourage the university to help us with skills transfer and the development of the emerging farmers. You can play a vital role in developing a mentorship programme. Yours remains a central and critical role of being torch bearers in guiding the transformation agenda of our country," he said.

In his contribution on the challenges of small scale farmers in South Africa and the role of the university, Mr Motsepe Matlala, President of NAFU, said that unity in organised agriculture and working together with other stakeholders has become even more crucial with regard to the global challenges now faced by the country. “The university should take the lead in guiding all farmers on how to respond to, among others, the global financial turmoil and politics, developments in trade negotiations, food prices, input costs and the availability of energy," he said.

“If the UFS, and more specifically the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, is to continue to play a leading role in academia as well as in the production of research that matters to the growth and development of this country, it must adopt an approach that seeks to harness the capacity of everyone in an inclusive manner. The strides already made in this regard must be applauded,” Mr Matlala said.

Speaking on the future challenges in agriculture and the role of universities, Mr Hans van der Merwe, Executive Head of Agri SA said that South Africa has not spent money on agricultural development in a long time. “We must increase our product capacity in the agricultural sector. Universities must focus on cultivating enough expertise and the skills necessary to manage the resources and capacity needed," he said. In his view, South Africa must also focus on technological advancement in agriculture as this has also been neglected in the past. He urged universities to provide best-practice education and to look at international trends in agricultural training. “That is why we should not only focus our attention on South Africa, but on southern Africa,” Mr van der Merwe said.

In conclusion to the day’s programme, Mr Corwyn Botha, Chairperson of the Agricultural Business Chamber, Managing Director of the Cape Agri Group and former Kovsie stated that: “If you want to be an example of leadership, people around you must do better because you are there. A university should evaluate itself in this context. You cannot create solutions to problems with the same attitude in which the problems were created."

Media Release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Assistant Director: Media Liaison
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@ufs.ac.za  
28 November 2008
 

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