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28 September 2020 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Pexels
Dr Trevor Manuel, Chairperson: Old Mutual Limited and former minister of finance (top left), Ms Ann Bernstein, Executive Director: Centre for Development and Enterprise (CDE) (top right), and Mr Mondli Makhanya, Editor-in-Chief: City Press (bottom left), were the panellists at the University of the Free State’s (UFS) second Thought-Leader Webinar for 2020, which focused on the economy. Dr Max du Preez, Editor: Vrye Weekblad (bottom right), was the facilitator.

The state is broken, and the country cannot move forward unless the state is fixed and bold, tough decisions are made.

This is the opinion of panellists who took part in the University of the Free State’s (UFS) second Thought-Leader Webinar on Wednesday (23 September), which focused on the economy. This webinar is part of a series with the theme ‘Post-COVID-19, Post-Crisis.’  Dr Trevor Manuel, Chairperson: Old Mutual Limited and former minister of finance, Ms Ann Bernstein, Executive Director: Centre for Development and Enterprise (CDE), and Mr Mondli Makhanya, Editor-in-Chief: City Press, were the panellists. Dr Max du Preez, Editor: Vrye Weekblad, was the facilitator.

Country needs reform

Both Bernstein and Makhanya said that the state is broken, with Bernstein saying that the state is corrupt, and government decision-making bandwidth is much weaker than it used to be.

“The country is in a very serious situation and cannot do more of the same. We have to reflect honestly on what got us into this terrible situation, and then COVID exacerbated all our problems. What got us into it and what we have done previously has to change.”

“The country needs reform and it is my view that we will not move forward unless government’s credibility as a reformer is establish, and two and a half years of promises and very little action of any significance has undermined that credibility. I think you have to start from that,” says Bernstein.

According to her, bold choices must be made if we are to save what growth we have, if we are to expand growth, to expand more labour intensively. 

“South Africa has all the potential to be a great African economy, with all sorts of strengths that we could build on. But we keep disappointing.”

Building a capable state

Makhanya said going forward, a good starting point is to fix and build a capable state. “The fundamental thing of the NDP (National Development Plan) – a plan that can take us forward – was the part about a capable state.” 
“The state is very broken, and there is no way we can move forward while the state is as broken as it is now. This is what we saw during lockdown, when it was so easy for certain elements to steal from very essential funds that were meant to save lives. It was a classic example of a broken state.”

Another thing we absolutely need to do, is to have one message and one conversation.  

“Tough decisions should be taken. It was frustrating again to find us as a country talking about where to find R10,5 billion to fund our ailing airline. Why is this a priority? We know what our priorities are. We know Eskom is a priority, we know food security is a priority, unemployment is a priority. Why is it necessary for us as a country to have this hectic debate about having a national airline?” 

“Decisions need to be taken around the health of the fiscus, decisions around the public wage bill, around issues of freeing up enterprise, and about reforms. The decisions will take a long time to make and some of them will be unpopular, but they need to be taken,” says Makhanya.

According to him, President Cyril Ramaphosa needs to take these decisions. He also needs to tell himself that he would be happy to serve one term, and that he does not need friends to vote him back as leader of the ANC and as President of the country in 2024. President Ramaphosa needs to do things now, knowing that he will leave a legacy of having fixed a country, and importantly, having fixed the economy.

Announcement of hard lockdown saw the economy hurtling down a cliff

Dr Manuel said the hard lockdown announced at the end of March saw the economy hurtling down a cliff. This happened after three successive quarters of contraction. “We find ourselves at the base of this ravine, having tumbled down. How do we extricate the South African economy from where we are given the geography of where we are?”

According to him, the country has fewer options than we would like to imagine. 

“I think the 51% contraction in the second quarter must introduce a sense of urgency and focus the mind. We are not alone. But we need to be rigorously honest about where we are. And we need to also ask ourselves tough questions of whether we have the wherewithal to reconstruct the economy,” says Dr Manuel. 

According to him, the $3,4 billion borrowed from the IMF is unlikely to be sufficient, and there is a growing consensus that the full-on standby facility from the IMF will probably be needed.  

He says while the RFID has no obvious conditions, it is important to pay attention to the fine print. “In the letter of intent, which was jointly signed by the Governor of the Reserve Bank and the Minister of Finance, we committed to take action to revoke the upward trajectory of the debt-to-GDP ratio, and also a commitment to remove the structural impediments to growth. So, it is quite important to understand what we committed to and against what we will be measured.” 
“The IMF, in accepting those commitments, also warned about the urgency and the sequencing of the series of policy measures to prevent – in their words – the risk of social unrest. They also raised a series of red flags that are important in the context. The first is the growth of the public sector wage bill, something that is in the public domain and about which NEHAWU is threatening to strike. The second issue is the scale of transfers to state-owned enterprises. Thirdly, the risk of the curtailment of infrastructures.”

There has also been a flurry of policy writing and discussions. The National Treasury, Business for South Africa, and the ANC have written their own papers on reconstruction, growth, and building an inclusive economy.  According to Dr Manuel, however, the question is how to get things done. 

“The concern I have about these papers is that there is inadequate attention to public finance, which sets a frame for all economic development that needs to take place. And it is basically an equation – what you have to spend is the sum of what to tax and what you can borrow.”

What the country needs right now is clarity on the trade-offs, and not even the social partners paper deals with trade-off clearly enough. If you put money into an airline, it has to come from somewhere else. Your ability to govern and exercise choices is therefore severely limited.

News Archive

Bloemfontein's quality of tap water compares very favourably with bottled water
2009-08-04

The quality of the drinking water of five suburbs in Bloemfontein is at least as good as or better than bottled water. This is the result of a standard and chemical bacterial analysis done by the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Centre for Environmental Management in collaboration with the Institute for Groundwater Studies (IGS).

Five samples were taken from tap water sources in the suburbs of Universitas, Brandwag, Bain’s Vlei, Langenhoven Park and Bayswater and 15 samples were taken of different brands of still and unflavoured bottled water. The samples were analysed at the laboratory of the IGS, while the interpretation of the analysis was done by the Centre for Environmental Management.

“We wanted to evaluate the difference in quality for human consumption between tap water and that of the different brands of bottled water,” said Prof. Maitland Seaman, Head of the Centre for Environmental Management.

“With the exception of two samples produced by multinational companies at their plants in South Africa, the different brands of bottled water used for the study were produced by South African companies, including a local small-scale Bloemfontein producer,” said Prof. Seaman.

According to the labels, the sources of the water vary from pure spring water, to partial reverse osmosis (as an aid to standardise salt, i.e. mineral, content), to only reverse osmosis (to remove salts). (Reverse osmosis is a process in which water is forced under pressure through a pipe with minute pores through which water passes but no – or very low concentrations of – salts pass.)

According to Prof. Seaman, the analysis revealed some interesting findings, such as:

• It is generally accepted that drinking water should have an acceptable level of salt content, as the body needs salts. Most mineral contents were relatively higher in the tap water samples than the bottled water samples and were very much within the acceptable range of drinkable water quality. One of the bottled samples, however, had a very low mineral content, as the water was produced by reverse osmosis, as stated on the bottle. While reverse osmosis is used by various producers, most producers use it as an aid, not as a single method to remove nearly all the salts. Drinking only such water over a prolonged period may probably have a negative effect on the human physiology.

• The pH values of the tap water samples (8,12–8,40) were found to be slightly higher (slightly alkaline), like in all south-eastern Free State rivers (from where the water is sourced) than the pH of most of the bottled water samples, most of which are sourced and/or treated in other areas. Two brands of bottled water were found to have relatively low pH levels (both 4,5, i.e. acidic) as indicated on their bottles and as confirmed by the IGS analysis. The health implication of this range of pH is not significant.

• The analysis showed differences in the mineral content given on the labels of most of the water bottles compared to that found by IGS analysis. The possibility of seasonal fluctuation in content, depending on various factors, is expected and most of the bottling companies also indicate this on their labels. What was a rather interesting finding was that two pairs of bottled water brands claimed exactly the same mineral content but appeared under different brand names and were also priced differently. In each case, one of the pair was a well-known house brand, and the other obviously the original producer. In one of these paired cases, the house brand stated that the water was spring water, while the other (identical) “original” brand stated that it was spring water treated by reverse osmosis and oxygen-enriched.

• Nitrate (NO3) levels were uniformly low except in one bottled sample, suggesting a low (non-threatening) level of organic pollution in the source water. Otherwise, none of the water showed any sign of pollution.

• The bacterial analysis confirmed the absence of any traces of coliforms or E.coli in any of the samples, as was also indicated by the bottling companies. This is very reassuring. What is not known is how all these waters were sterilised, which could be anything from irradiation to chlorine or ozone treatment.

• The price of the different brands of bottled water, each containing 500 ml of still water, ranged between R3,99 and R8,99, with R5,03 being the average price. A comparison between the least expensive and the most expensive bottles of water indicated no significant difference in quality. In fact, discrepancies were observed in the most expensive bottle in that the amount of Calcium (Ca) claimed to be present in it was found to be significantly different from what the analysis indicated (29,6 mg/l versus 0,92 mg/l). The alkalinity (CaCO3 mg/l) indicated on the bottle was also found to differ considerably (83 mg/l versus 9,4 mg/l). The concentration of Total Dissolved Salts (TDS) was not given on the product.

“The preference for bottled water as compared to Bloemfontein’s tap water from a qualitative perspective as well as the price discrepancy is unjustifiable. The environmental footprint of bottled water is also large. Sourcing, treating, bottling, packaging and transporting, to mention but a few of the steps involved in the processing of bottled water, entail a huge carbon footprint, as well as a large water footprint, because it also requires water for treating and rinsing to process bottled water,” said Prof. Seaman.

Media Release
Lacea Loader
Deputy Director: Media Liaison
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@ufs.ac.za  
3 August 2009

 

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