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01 April 2021 | Story Andre Damons | Photo istock
The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave and people’s behaviour will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.

Similar trends as during the festive season of 2020 – when the behaviour of people was driving COVID-19 transmissions and played a role in the second wave – have emerged due to the Easter holidays, and may contribute to a third wave. 
“This means that we can already anticipate gatherings and a higher rate of travel during the next three weeks. As a result of this as well as non-adherence to the non-pharmaceutical interventions, we can anticipate this event to serve as a catalyst for transmission.” 

“If nothing is done to prevent this, it is anticipated that the Free State will see a steady increase and a potential third wave between 17 April and 26 June,” says Herkulaas Combrink, the interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP).

The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave

According to him, the vulnerability and population density dynamics in each province, the behaviour of people, and the social norms between communities must be taken into consideration to contextualise the impact of Easter on disease transmission – especially when looking at SARS-CoV-2.

For the Free State, the Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst that will lead up to the third wave, says Combrink. “If no interventions are put in place and people do not adhere to non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the spread of the disease, then we will see a steady climb and increase in cases up until that time. This means that the behaviour of people will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.”

Reducing the severity of the third wave

According to Combrink, who is involved in risk communication and vaccine analytics with other members of the UFS, we may be able to reduce the severity of the third wave if the variant remains the same and the vaccination roll-out plan is in full effect. It will also help if the correct number of people are vaccinated, the general population adheres to PPE and mitigation strategies, and people practise the appropriate behaviour as indicated in all official COVID-19 communication, including the UFS COVID-19 information page.  

According to Prof Felicity Burt and Dr Sabeehah Vawda, both virology experts in the UFS Division of Virology, the current vaccination programme is aimed at reducing the severity of the disease among health-care workers. Prevention of further waves of infection through vaccination will require sufficient coverage to induce at least 70% herd immunity in the country. Currently, no country has achieved that level of herd immunity through vaccine programmes – this is the long-term goal of vaccination. 

“Irrespective of the government’s vaccination programmes and schedules and a virus that may mutate and perhaps become more virulent, the fundamental ways to protect yourself remain unchanged, namely social distancing, wearing of masks, and regular hand washing. People need to realise that this ‘new normal’ is going to be with us for a while and remains the best defence against all SARS-CoV-2 viruses and even provides protection against other respiratory pathogens.”

Vaccines and mutations

The exact frequency of mutations differs between different types of viruses, but generally, SARS-CoV-2 is known to have a slower ‘mutation rate’ than other RNA viruses because of its built-in ‘proofreading’ enzyme. The true mutation rate of a virus is difficult to measure, as the majority of mutations will be lethal to the virus. Irrespective, very few have actually resulted in clinical impact. 

“This highlights the rather gradual process of mutation, so vaccines should remain effective or at least partially effective in the near future, as they elicit antibodies that target different parts of the virus. Continuous surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is necessary and ongoing to monitor for changes that may impact vaccines and diagnostic tests,” the experts say.

According to Prof Burt and Dr Vawda, scientists are continuously monitoring the situation to detect if the current vaccines would remain effective and to try to adjust them accordingly. How or when the virus will mutate in a clinically significant way is unknown, so at this point, the current vaccines have been shown to be effective against severe disease and hence have application in reducing significant disease. 

“There remains a lot unknown about the extent of protection and the duration of protection, and it is obviously hoped that the vaccine’s immune response in the human body would be able to provide at least some protection or decrease the possibility of severe disease even against potentially newer variants.”

News Archive

Grant encourages and enables more learners to enter into science-related studies and careers
2009-06-26

 
At the launch are, from the left, front: Consolation Mochusi, Graad 12 learner from Heatherdale Secondary School, Alexander Bergman, Grade 10 learner from Grey College Secondary School, Danél Prinsloo, Grade 11 learner from Eunice High School; middle: Ms Lea Koenig, Coordinator: ICT Laboratory of the Qwaqwa Campus, Prof. Daniela Coetzee-Manning, Director: CED; back: Ms Elna Fourie, Development Planner from SANRAL, Prof. Teuns Verschoor, Acting Rector of the UFS, Mr Cobus van Breda, Project Coordinator: CED and Mr Nazir Alli, Chief Executive Officer of SANRAL.
Photo: Stephen Collett


 

The University of the Free State’s (UFS) Centre for Education Development (CED) has this week launched a project on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein.
to enable and encourage more learners to enter into science-related studies and careers.

The grant of R4,5 million over a period of three years was made by the South African National Roads Agency Ltd (SANRAL). This week’s function was attended by the representatives of the sponsors and the UFS, as well as learners, parents, principals and Physical Sciences teachers of participating schools.

The grant will be utilised to foster a positive attitude towards Mathematics and Science amongst learners in the early school years as well as raising the knowledge and skills levels of learners in the Further Education and Training (FET) Phase. “This will be done through our Family Math and Family Science Programme for younger learners and through e-Education in Science and Mathematics for learners in the FET Phase,” said Mr Cobus van Breda, Project Coordinator at the CED.

About 330 selected Grade 10, 11 and 12 learners from 16 schools in the Free State are attending Physical Sciences and Mathematics sessions during weekdays at the ICT Laboratories on the Main and Qwaqwa Campuses of the UFS. In order to make provision for the needs of generation Y-learners (techno-clever generation), the project envisages to enhance their understanding of Science and Mathematics principles by utilising the advantages of ICTs (Information and Communication Technologies) during the sessions.

On average, learners attend four sessions per term, with one of the sessions a special event like visiting Boyden Observatory, departments at the UFS, etc. Learners will be exposed to about 36 sessions over the three years. Special attention to vocational guidance, in collaboration with the Unit for Prospective Students at the UFS, forms part of the support system of the programme to participating learners.

“Learning is a life-long experience and we must encourage our learners to grab this opportunity to learn more about important fields such as Mathematics and Science. It is a privilege for SANRAL to have this partnership with the CED and the university as it is an indication of our efforts to educate our youth,” said Mr Nazir Alli, Chief Executive Officer of SANRAL.

Mr Alli encouraged learners to grab the opportunity to learn and to make the field of science their career. “Science can be the foundation on which to build your career and this programme can assist you to reach your goal,” he said.

According to Prof. Teuns Verschoor, Acting Rector of the UFS, the SANRAL grant is a wise investment because it is an educational investment. “We cannot cut back on the investments we make in education and SANRAL’s investment in this programme is of benefit to schools and learners in the central region. Through this programme, its bursaries, various career opportunities and ongoing support of schools and universities SANRAL is making a huge contribution to promoting science-related studies and careers in our country,” he said.

Media Release
Lacea Loader
Assistant Director: Media Liaison
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@ufs.ac.za  
26 June 2009

 

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