Latest News Archive

Please select Category, Year, and then Month to display items
Previous Archive
01 April 2021 | Story Andre Damons | Photo istock
The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave and people’s behaviour will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.

Similar trends as during the festive season of 2020 – when the behaviour of people was driving COVID-19 transmissions and played a role in the second wave – have emerged due to the Easter holidays, and may contribute to a third wave. 
“This means that we can already anticipate gatherings and a higher rate of travel during the next three weeks. As a result of this as well as non-adherence to the non-pharmaceutical interventions, we can anticipate this event to serve as a catalyst for transmission.” 

“If nothing is done to prevent this, it is anticipated that the Free State will see a steady increase and a potential third wave between 17 April and 26 June,” says Herkulaas Combrink, the interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP).

The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave

According to him, the vulnerability and population density dynamics in each province, the behaviour of people, and the social norms between communities must be taken into consideration to contextualise the impact of Easter on disease transmission – especially when looking at SARS-CoV-2.

For the Free State, the Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst that will lead up to the third wave, says Combrink. “If no interventions are put in place and people do not adhere to non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the spread of the disease, then we will see a steady climb and increase in cases up until that time. This means that the behaviour of people will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.”

Reducing the severity of the third wave

According to Combrink, who is involved in risk communication and vaccine analytics with other members of the UFS, we may be able to reduce the severity of the third wave if the variant remains the same and the vaccination roll-out plan is in full effect. It will also help if the correct number of people are vaccinated, the general population adheres to PPE and mitigation strategies, and people practise the appropriate behaviour as indicated in all official COVID-19 communication, including the UFS COVID-19 information page.  

According to Prof Felicity Burt and Dr Sabeehah Vawda, both virology experts in the UFS Division of Virology, the current vaccination programme is aimed at reducing the severity of the disease among health-care workers. Prevention of further waves of infection through vaccination will require sufficient coverage to induce at least 70% herd immunity in the country. Currently, no country has achieved that level of herd immunity through vaccine programmes – this is the long-term goal of vaccination. 

“Irrespective of the government’s vaccination programmes and schedules and a virus that may mutate and perhaps become more virulent, the fundamental ways to protect yourself remain unchanged, namely social distancing, wearing of masks, and regular hand washing. People need to realise that this ‘new normal’ is going to be with us for a while and remains the best defence against all SARS-CoV-2 viruses and even provides protection against other respiratory pathogens.”

Vaccines and mutations

The exact frequency of mutations differs between different types of viruses, but generally, SARS-CoV-2 is known to have a slower ‘mutation rate’ than other RNA viruses because of its built-in ‘proofreading’ enzyme. The true mutation rate of a virus is difficult to measure, as the majority of mutations will be lethal to the virus. Irrespective, very few have actually resulted in clinical impact. 

“This highlights the rather gradual process of mutation, so vaccines should remain effective or at least partially effective in the near future, as they elicit antibodies that target different parts of the virus. Continuous surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is necessary and ongoing to monitor for changes that may impact vaccines and diagnostic tests,” the experts say.

According to Prof Burt and Dr Vawda, scientists are continuously monitoring the situation to detect if the current vaccines would remain effective and to try to adjust them accordingly. How or when the virus will mutate in a clinically significant way is unknown, so at this point, the current vaccines have been shown to be effective against severe disease and hence have application in reducing significant disease. 

“There remains a lot unknown about the extent of protection and the duration of protection, and it is obviously hoped that the vaccine’s immune response in the human body would be able to provide at least some protection or decrease the possibility of severe disease even against potentially newer variants.”

News Archive

"Service" needs to return to public service
2010-09-14

At the memorial lecture were, from the left, front: Chris Hendriks, Proff. Liezel Lues, Chris Thornhill and Lyndon du Plessis; middle: Prof. Hendri Kroukamp, Mss Alet Fouche, Lizette Pretorius; and back: Proff. Koos Bekker and Moses Sindane.
– Photo: Stephen Collett.

There is a serious need for the concept of “service” to be reintroduced to the public service. In addition to this, public servants need to behave ethically and honestly if the public service were to achieve its main aim of service delivery to South African citizens and thereby also restore the trust of citizens in the state.

This was the central theme of the JN Boshoff Commemorative Lecture hosted by the Department of Public Administration and Management at the University of the Free State UFS). The lecture by Prof. Chris Thornhill, emeritus professor of Public Administration and Management at the University of Pretoria, focused on “Administrative and Governmental Challenges: Lessons from the Past”. He drew pertinent parallels with the administrative and governmental practices during the times of Pres. JN Boshoff, second president of the Orange Free State in 1855, and the challenges faced in this regard by the current government and public service.

Prof. Thornhill highlighted important aspects such as globalisation, the environment, public service and democratic government in his presentation.
He said the borders between countries have all but vanished and governments therefore have to carefully consider the effects of globalisation on its domestic affairs. The strength of a country’s currency, for example, was not only determined by how that country viewed or perceived it, but also by the international community’s perception of that country’s political and economic stability. This, in turn, could have serious implications for that country’s investment and economic prospects.

Governments are compelled to attend to the utilisation of its natural resources as these resources are finite and therefore irreplaceable. Policy interventions have to be introduced to decrease or regulate the use of certain natural resources or alternative measures need to be introduced. The example of bio-fuel production in various countries was highlighted.

He said the South African public service is characterised by three debilitating factors, namely the prevalence of corruption, the interference of politicians in administrative functions and a lack of appropriate skills and therefore a lack of commitment on the part of officials. In the municipal sector, for example, 46% of municipal managers have less than one year’s experience and this mainly occurs because of the practice of deployment (the appointment of a person based on political affiliation). An amendment to the Local Government: Municipal Systems Act is currently under consideration, in terms of which municipal managers will be disallowed to hold party political positions simultaneously.

According to Prof. Thornhill this is a step in the right direction, but more needs to be done to neutralise the impact of these debilitating factors in order to restore the credibility of the public service.

On democratic government Prof. Thornhill said the fact that the majority of a country’s citizens elect a political party to power does not automatically make the government capable of governing effectively and efficiently. It is therefore important for the rulers to understand their governing role within a democratic context, but more importantly to act accordingly. It is also important not to centralise power unduly as this could be a serious threat to accountable government. The 17th amendment to the Constitution, 1996, currently under consideration, and in terms of which national and provincial government will be allowed to intervene in local government matters, was highlighted as a case in point.

Prof. Thornhill said it was essential for those involved to sincerely and honestly and ethically deal with the above matters for the public service to overcome current challenges.
 

We use cookies to make interactions with our websites and services easy and meaningful. To better understand how they are used, read more about the UFS cookie policy. By continuing to use this site you are giving us your consent to do this.

Accept