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01 April 2021 | Story Andre Damons | Photo istock
The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave and people’s behaviour will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.

Similar trends as during the festive season of 2020 – when the behaviour of people was driving COVID-19 transmissions and played a role in the second wave – have emerged due to the Easter holidays, and may contribute to a third wave. 
“This means that we can already anticipate gatherings and a higher rate of travel during the next three weeks. As a result of this as well as non-adherence to the non-pharmaceutical interventions, we can anticipate this event to serve as a catalyst for transmission.” 

“If nothing is done to prevent this, it is anticipated that the Free State will see a steady increase and a potential third wave between 17 April and 26 June,” says Herkulaas Combrink, the interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP).

The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave

According to him, the vulnerability and population density dynamics in each province, the behaviour of people, and the social norms between communities must be taken into consideration to contextualise the impact of Easter on disease transmission – especially when looking at SARS-CoV-2.

For the Free State, the Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst that will lead up to the third wave, says Combrink. “If no interventions are put in place and people do not adhere to non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the spread of the disease, then we will see a steady climb and increase in cases up until that time. This means that the behaviour of people will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.”

Reducing the severity of the third wave

According to Combrink, who is involved in risk communication and vaccine analytics with other members of the UFS, we may be able to reduce the severity of the third wave if the variant remains the same and the vaccination roll-out plan is in full effect. It will also help if the correct number of people are vaccinated, the general population adheres to PPE and mitigation strategies, and people practise the appropriate behaviour as indicated in all official COVID-19 communication, including the UFS COVID-19 information page.  

According to Prof Felicity Burt and Dr Sabeehah Vawda, both virology experts in the UFS Division of Virology, the current vaccination programme is aimed at reducing the severity of the disease among health-care workers. Prevention of further waves of infection through vaccination will require sufficient coverage to induce at least 70% herd immunity in the country. Currently, no country has achieved that level of herd immunity through vaccine programmes – this is the long-term goal of vaccination. 

“Irrespective of the government’s vaccination programmes and schedules and a virus that may mutate and perhaps become more virulent, the fundamental ways to protect yourself remain unchanged, namely social distancing, wearing of masks, and regular hand washing. People need to realise that this ‘new normal’ is going to be with us for a while and remains the best defence against all SARS-CoV-2 viruses and even provides protection against other respiratory pathogens.”

Vaccines and mutations

The exact frequency of mutations differs between different types of viruses, but generally, SARS-CoV-2 is known to have a slower ‘mutation rate’ than other RNA viruses because of its built-in ‘proofreading’ enzyme. The true mutation rate of a virus is difficult to measure, as the majority of mutations will be lethal to the virus. Irrespective, very few have actually resulted in clinical impact. 

“This highlights the rather gradual process of mutation, so vaccines should remain effective or at least partially effective in the near future, as they elicit antibodies that target different parts of the virus. Continuous surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is necessary and ongoing to monitor for changes that may impact vaccines and diagnostic tests,” the experts say.

According to Prof Burt and Dr Vawda, scientists are continuously monitoring the situation to detect if the current vaccines would remain effective and to try to adjust them accordingly. How or when the virus will mutate in a clinically significant way is unknown, so at this point, the current vaccines have been shown to be effective against severe disease and hence have application in reducing significant disease. 

“There remains a lot unknown about the extent of protection and the duration of protection, and it is obviously hoped that the vaccine’s immune response in the human body would be able to provide at least some protection or decrease the possibility of severe disease even against potentially newer variants.”

News Archive

DF Malherbe Memorial Lecture
2005-05-19

DF Malherbe Memorial Lecture: Language and language activism in a time of transformation (summary)
Proff Hennie van Coller and Jaap Steyn

Language activism necessary for multilingualism
The awareness is growing that language activism will be needed to bring about a truly democratic multi-lingual society. What is quite clear is that a firm resolve must continuously resist the concentrated pressure on Afrikaans-medium schools (and universities) to allow themselves to be anglicised through becoming first parallel medium, then dual medium, and finally English medium institutions.

Proff Hennie van Coller and Jaap Steyn said this last night (Wednesday night) in the 24th DF Malherbe Memorial Lecture at the University of the Free State. Prof van Coller is head of the Department Afrikaans, Dutch, German and French at the UFS. Both are widely honoured for their contributions to Afrikaans and the promotion of Afrikaans.

They discussed three periods of transformation since 1902, and said about the current phase, which started in 1994:  “Besides all institutions and councils having to be representative of South Africa’s racial composition, places of education were required to open their doors. Quite rapidly this policy has had the result that schools and universities may be solely English medium, but not solely Afrikaans medium. Afrikaans medium institutions — if they claim the right to remain Afrikaans — are quickly branded racist, even though their student body may include all races.

“Education departments are presently exerting great pressure on Afrikaans medium schools to become double or parallel medium schools.  Parallel medium education is an equitable solution provided it can be sustained. Established parallel medium schools, such as Grey College in Bloemfontein, have catered even-handedly for English and Afrikaans speakers for decades. But the situation is different in the parallel medium (and still worse in the double medium) schools that spring up usually at the behest of a department of education.

“Afrikaans schools are converted almost over-night into parallel or dual medium schools without any additional personnel being provided. Depending on the social environment, a parallel medium school becomes reconstituted as a dual medium school on average in five to eight years, and dual medium school becomes an English-only school in two to three years. Some Afrikaans medium schools have become English medium in just three years.

“Though the Constitution recognises mono-lingual schools, officials in the provinces insist that Afrikaans schools become dual or parallel medium; English medium schools are left undisturbed. One must conclude that the tacit aim of the state is English as the sole official language, despite the lip-service paid to multi-lingualism, and the optimistic references to post-apartheid South Africa as a ‘rainbow’ nation.”

They said a recent study has shown that the 1 396 Afrikaans schools in the six provinces in 1993 have dwindled to 844. The fall off in the Free State is from 153 to 97; in the Western Cape from 759 to 564; in Gauteng from 274 to 155; in Mapumalanga from 90 to 3; in the North West from 82 to 13; and in Limpopo Province from 38 to 12.

They said the changes at universities, too, have been severe, as university staffs well know. Ten years ago there were five Afrikaans universities. Today there are none. The government demanded that all universities be open to all, which has meant that all universities have had to become English medium. And no additional funding was forthcoming for the changes. The government policy amounts to a language “tax” imposed on the Afrikaans community for using Afrikaans.

“Only when all schools (and universities) are English will the clamor cease. Academics and educationists are beginning to speak openly of forming pressure groups to save Afrikaans schools, and of using litigation as one of their methods. 59% of Afrikaans parents have said they would support strong action if Afrikaans were no longer a medium of instruction at schools.”

 

 


 

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