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01 April 2021 | Story Andre Damons | Photo istock
The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave and people’s behaviour will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.

Similar trends as during the festive season of 2020 – when the behaviour of people was driving COVID-19 transmissions and played a role in the second wave – have emerged due to the Easter holidays, and may contribute to a third wave. 
“This means that we can already anticipate gatherings and a higher rate of travel during the next three weeks. As a result of this as well as non-adherence to the non-pharmaceutical interventions, we can anticipate this event to serve as a catalyst for transmission.” 

“If nothing is done to prevent this, it is anticipated that the Free State will see a steady increase and a potential third wave between 17 April and 26 June,” says Herkulaas Combrink, the interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP).

The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave

According to him, the vulnerability and population density dynamics in each province, the behaviour of people, and the social norms between communities must be taken into consideration to contextualise the impact of Easter on disease transmission – especially when looking at SARS-CoV-2.

For the Free State, the Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst that will lead up to the third wave, says Combrink. “If no interventions are put in place and people do not adhere to non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the spread of the disease, then we will see a steady climb and increase in cases up until that time. This means that the behaviour of people will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.”

Reducing the severity of the third wave

According to Combrink, who is involved in risk communication and vaccine analytics with other members of the UFS, we may be able to reduce the severity of the third wave if the variant remains the same and the vaccination roll-out plan is in full effect. It will also help if the correct number of people are vaccinated, the general population adheres to PPE and mitigation strategies, and people practise the appropriate behaviour as indicated in all official COVID-19 communication, including the UFS COVID-19 information page.  

According to Prof Felicity Burt and Dr Sabeehah Vawda, both virology experts in the UFS Division of Virology, the current vaccination programme is aimed at reducing the severity of the disease among health-care workers. Prevention of further waves of infection through vaccination will require sufficient coverage to induce at least 70% herd immunity in the country. Currently, no country has achieved that level of herd immunity through vaccine programmes – this is the long-term goal of vaccination. 

“Irrespective of the government’s vaccination programmes and schedules and a virus that may mutate and perhaps become more virulent, the fundamental ways to protect yourself remain unchanged, namely social distancing, wearing of masks, and regular hand washing. People need to realise that this ‘new normal’ is going to be with us for a while and remains the best defence against all SARS-CoV-2 viruses and even provides protection against other respiratory pathogens.”

Vaccines and mutations

The exact frequency of mutations differs between different types of viruses, but generally, SARS-CoV-2 is known to have a slower ‘mutation rate’ than other RNA viruses because of its built-in ‘proofreading’ enzyme. The true mutation rate of a virus is difficult to measure, as the majority of mutations will be lethal to the virus. Irrespective, very few have actually resulted in clinical impact. 

“This highlights the rather gradual process of mutation, so vaccines should remain effective or at least partially effective in the near future, as they elicit antibodies that target different parts of the virus. Continuous surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is necessary and ongoing to monitor for changes that may impact vaccines and diagnostic tests,” the experts say.

According to Prof Burt and Dr Vawda, scientists are continuously monitoring the situation to detect if the current vaccines would remain effective and to try to adjust them accordingly. How or when the virus will mutate in a clinically significant way is unknown, so at this point, the current vaccines have been shown to be effective against severe disease and hence have application in reducing significant disease. 

“There remains a lot unknown about the extent of protection and the duration of protection, and it is obviously hoped that the vaccine’s immune response in the human body would be able to provide at least some protection or decrease the possibility of severe disease even against potentially newer variants.”

News Archive

UFS institute set to contribute to transformation in South Africa
2011-01-23

The UFS launches it's new International Institute for Studies in Race, Reconciliation and Social Justice.
- Photo: Dries and Henco Myburgh

Today (Thursday, 27 January 2011), almost three years after the Reitz affair, the University of the Free State (UFS) is launching its International Institute for Studies in Race, Reconciliation and Social Justice. This international institute will be inaugurated by Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu, Nobel Peace Prize Laureate and Chairperson of the former Truth and Reconciliation Commission, who received an honorary doctorate in Theology from the university earlier today.

According to Mr John Samuel, Interim Director of the institute and former Chief Executive Officer of the Nelson Mandela Foundation, the institute seeks to establish itself as a premier international site for research on race, reconciliation and social justice.

“It is encouraging to see the UFS bringing to the fore such an initiative, which combines a study in race, reconciliation and social justice, all of which are indispensible elements in the process of rebuilding our nation,” said the Deputy President of South Africa, Mr Kgalema Motlanthe, in his message of congratulations to the university.

“I am confident that on the strength of its stature, coupled with its eminent experience as an academic institution, the UFS will further assist our country advance towards a united, non-racial, non-sexism, just and prosperous future.

“I wish the institute well in its arduous but noble task of contributing to the building of a better human society,” he said.

Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector, stated during his official inauguration in 2009 that the university would be an example of a place where reconciliation, forgiveness and social justice would not only be studied, but where it would also be applied in practice. “Students and scholars from across the world will come to the UFS to study the theory and practice about the building of societies across the boundaries of race, as well as religion, gender, disabilities and national origin,” Prof. Jansen said.

The institute is a critical space where engaged scholarship, public discussion, community engagement and teaching are innovatively integrated towards exploring and finding solutions to the complex and challenging work of social transformation in South Africa.

The institute furthermore works towards the realisation of its mission through a multiplicity of approaches and methods, informed by the notion that deep and complex social challenges require courageous and challenging scholarship, supported by innovative organisational forms and institutional arrangements.

Working from the inside to the outside, the institute will firstly serve the needs of the university, its staff and students. Through its research, the institute will endeavour to understand the challenges facing the UFS better, as well as how to address these challenges. For this reason, the concept of the UFS as a “live laboratory” and the use of evidence-based practice remain important for the university.

The institute will also reach out and empower its stakeholder communities through research and ongoing involvement on issues of race, reconciliation and social justice. Furthermore the institution expects to contribute to the creation of national and international networks and dialogue platforms pertaining to race, reconciliation and social justice.

For the first five years, the themes of 1) Values, Faith and Social Justice; 2) Development and Social Cohesion; 3) Teaching and Learning for Social Justice; and 4) Provincial, National, Global Perspectives and Leadership will direct the institute’s work.

The UFS will make a substantial contribution to the pursuit of reconciliation, greater social cohesion and equity in South Africa. The university is thus prepared to continue to engage the difficult, practical and trying work of building a strong, quality institution as it promotes racial healing and addresses the structural imbalances of the past. It is at this nexus that the institute commits to enabling change at the university as well contributing to transformation in South Africa.

Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe's message of support to the University of the Free State (PDF format)

Media Release
27 January 2011
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication (actg)
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: news@ufs.ac.za

 

 

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