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01 April 2021 | Story Andre Damons | Photo istock
The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave and people’s behaviour will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.
Similar trends as during the festive season of 2020 – when the behaviour of people was driving COVID-19 transmissions and played a role in the second wave – have emerged due to the Easter holidays, and may contribute to a third wave. 
“This means that we can already anticipate gatherings and a higher rate of travel during the next three weeks. As a result of this as well as non-adherence to the non-pharmaceutical interventions, we can anticipate this event to serve as a catalyst for transmission.” 

“If nothing is done to prevent this, it is anticipated that the Free State will see a steady increase and a potential third wave between 17 April and 26 June,” says Herkulaas Combrink, the interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria (UP).

The Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst for the third wave

According to him, the vulnerability and population density dynamics in each province, the behaviour of people, and the social norms between communities must be taken into consideration to contextualise the impact of Easter on disease transmission – especially when looking at SARS-CoV-2.

For the Free State, the Easter weekend runs the risk of being a major catalyst that will lead up to the third wave, says Combrink. “If no interventions are put in place and people do not adhere to non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the spread of the disease, then we will see a steady climb and increase in cases up until that time. This means that the behaviour of people will be the primary driver of transmission for the third wave.”

Reducing the severity of the third wave

According to Combrink, who is involved in risk communication and vaccine analytics with other members of the UFS, we may be able to reduce the severity of the third wave if the variant remains the same and the vaccination roll-out plan is in full effect. It will also help if the correct number of people are vaccinated, the general population adheres to PPE and mitigation strategies, and people practise the appropriate behaviour as indicated in all official COVID-19 communication, including the UFS COVID-19 information page.  

According to Prof Felicity Burt and Dr Sabeehah Vawda, both virology experts in the UFS Division of Virology, the current vaccination programme is aimed at reducing the severity of the disease among health-care workers. Prevention of further waves of infection through vaccination will require sufficient coverage to induce at least 70% herd immunity in the country. Currently, no country has achieved that level of herd immunity through vaccine programmes – this is the long-term goal of vaccination. 

“Irrespective of the government’s vaccination programmes and schedules and a virus that may mutate and perhaps become more virulent, the fundamental ways to protect yourself remain unchanged, namely social distancing, wearing of masks, and regular hand washing. People need to realise that this ‘new normal’ is going to be with us for a while and remains the best defence against all SARS-CoV-2 viruses and even provides protection against other respiratory pathogens.”

Vaccines and mutations

The exact frequency of mutations differs between different types of viruses, but generally, SARS-CoV-2 is known to have a slower ‘mutation rate’ than other RNA viruses because of its built-in ‘proofreading’ enzyme. The true mutation rate of a virus is difficult to measure, as the majority of mutations will be lethal to the virus. Irrespective, very few have actually resulted in clinical impact. 

“This highlights the rather gradual process of mutation, so vaccines should remain effective or at least partially effective in the near future, as they elicit antibodies that target different parts of the virus. Continuous surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is necessary and ongoing to monitor for changes that may impact vaccines and diagnostic tests,” the experts say.

According to Prof Burt and Dr Vawda, scientists are continuously monitoring the situation to detect if the current vaccines would remain effective and to try to adjust them accordingly. How or when the virus will mutate in a clinically significant way is unknown, so at this point, the current vaccines have been shown to be effective against severe disease and hence have application in reducing significant disease. 

“There remains a lot unknown about the extent of protection and the duration of protection, and it is obviously hoped that the vaccine’s immune response in the human body would be able to provide at least some protection or decrease the possibility of severe disease even against potentially newer variants.”

Dr Sabeehah Vawda is employed by the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) as a pathologist in virology and by the UFS as a Senior Lecturer in the Division of Virology.
Dr Sabeehah Vawda is employed by the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) as a pathologist in virology and by the UFS as a Senior Lecturer in the Division of Virology.
Prof Felicity is an expert in arbovirology in the Division of Virology and holds a South African Research Chair in Vector-borne and Zoonotic Pathogens Research.
Prof Felicity is an expert in arbovirology in the Division of Virology and holds a South African Research Chair in Vector-borne and Zoonotic Pathogens Research.
Herkulaas Combrink is the Interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria.
Herkulaas Combrink is the Interim Director of the UFS Initiatives for Digital Futures and PhD candidate in Computer Science at the University of Pretoria.

News Archive

During 2011: Sport
2011-12-01

Our sports stars set their gaols high and with hard work, dedication a good measure of determination they show that they will not give up until these goals are met. A place in the national team or a medal or award in hand is enough proof that our Kovsie sportsmen and women are serious about their successes on the sports field.

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Some of our stars this year were:

Athletics:

Thuso Mpuang, our Kovsie Sportsman of the year, represented South Africa during the World Athletic Championships in Deague, Korea. He obtained the silver medal in the 200m during the World Student Games in Shenzhen, China and a gold medal as a member of the 4 x 100m relay team.

Janette Siebert represented South Africa during the Southern Africa Championships in Maputo, Mozambique.

Boy Soke represented South Africa during the Africa Cross Country Championships in Cape Town. He also represented South Africa during the World Cross Country Championships in China.

Cricket:

The 21-year-old former Kovsie, Obus Pienaar, who was still playing cricket for our university club until the end of the season (end of March), has been playing abroad for the Irish cricket club Waringstown from the end of April 2011.
We are proud of Obus’ achievements, in particular his contribution to the match against the CIYMS. During this game, Obus hit the highest score ever in the Northern Cricket Unions when he scored 244 runs in only 114 balls. This included 22 sixes and 13 fours. During his innings in this match, Obus also broke the July 2004 record of his compatriot, AB de Villiers of the Proteas.

Hockey:

Lesley Ann George represented the Protea Women’s Hockey Team during the series against China, Belgium and Azerbaijan. She was also a member of the Protea Women’s Hockey Team during the Champs Challenge in Ireland. The team finished fifth.

Nicole de Vries represented the Protea Women’s Hockey Team during the series against China, Belgium and Azerbaijan. She was also a member of the Protea Women’s Hockey Team during the Africa Cup in Bulawayo. The team obtained a gold medal.

Hettie Oosthuizen represented the Protea Women’s Hockey Team during the series against China, Belgium and Azerbaijan.

Izelle Lategan represented the Protea Women’s Hockey Team during the series against China, Belgium and Azerbaijan.

Nicole Kemp was a member of the Protea Women’s Hockey Team during the Africa Cup in Bulawayo. The team obtained a gold medal.

Karate:

Elsabe le Roux was a member of the Protea JKA Shotokan Karate Team that participated in the Africa Zone 6 Championships in Maputo where she obtained a gold and silver medal.

Bruno Schwalbach was a member of the Protea JKA Shotokan Karate Team that participated in the Africa Zone 6 Championships in Maputo where he obtained two gold medals. He was also a member of the Protea JKA Shotokan Karate Team that participated in the Common Wealth Karate Championship in Australia where he obtained one silver and two bronze medals. He was a member of the Protea JKA Shotokan Karate Team that participated in the All Africa Games in Maputo Mozambique where he obtained a bronze medal.

Balungile Nchofe was a member of the Protea JKA Shotokan Karate Team that participated in the Africa Zone 6 Championship in Maputo, where he obtained a gold medal.

Netball:

Kovsies’ netball team has performed well over the past year with, amongst others, the inclusion of players in the SA Universities World-cup Group.

Karla Mostert and Maryka Holtzhausen participated during the World Cup in Singapore in the SPAR SA Protea team.

We are also proud of the eight players who have been included in the SA team. They are Zimari Smit, Sheri Duimpies, Ane Botha, Danique du Toit, Nieke Loubser, Karla Mostert, Fikile Mkhuzangwe and Lauren-lee Christians.

At the SA tournament, Ane Botha was named as the centre-court player of the tournament, whilst Karla Mostert was named as the best defending player. Karla has also been included in the SPAR SA Protea team to the All African Games, which start in Mozambique at the end of August.

Rugby:

Boom Prinsloo and Robert Ebershohn are representing the Springboks in the HSBC Sevens World Series.

Soccer:

Gabisile Hlumbane, our Kovsie Sportswomanof the year, is a member of the Banyana Banyana National Soccer Team. The team obtained a bronze medal at the African Women’s Championships during October 2010, a gold medal at the Unity Cup Hosted during December 2010, a silver medal at the COSAFA Women’s Championship hosted during July 2011 and qualified for the London Olympics in 2012.

Squash:

Paul Rodrigues represented the South African U/ 23 team at the All Africa Squash Championships in Johannesburg.

Triathlon:

Nelmaré Loubser represented the SA Elite Team during the World Championships in Spain.

 

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